After a bye week, Indiana football takes on the USC Trojans in Bloomington at 3:30 p.m. Saturday. This is a huge matchup, with Indiana being ranked 9th and USC being ranked 18th in the latest edition of the college football playoff rankings.

This game has dramatic implications for the playoffs. If Indiana wins this game and wins out against Washington and Purdue, its playoff odds are 98% even with a loss in the conference championship. However, if they lose this game, and then win out, their playoff odds fall to 64%.

This is close to a win and in scenario  for the Hoosiers.

USC has one of the most potent offenses in the country. They are ranked 15th according to SP+, which is the second best offense Indiana is going to face, after Ohio State. This is definitely a matchup of good on good, as Indiana’s defense is clearly the strength of this team.

Quarterback Questions

The biggest storyline in this game is who Indiana’s starting quarterback is going to be. Josh Hoover is battling injuries and has not performed well up to this point, while backup Grant WIlson came in for the second half of the game against Minnesota and was an upgrade. After the bye week, how healthy is Hoover? Who is going to get the start at quarterback, and how short of a leash will the starter have?

Personally, I want the Hoosiers to start Grant Wilson. He performed well in his limited action against a good Minnesota defense, and made some clutch throws down the stretch. Even if Hoover is healthier than he was, I doubt he will be at 100%. Couple this with the lack of film for USC to watch on Grant Wilson, and I believe he is the best option for this game.

Having said that, I trust this coaching staff more than any other staff in the country. If they choose to start Hoover, I will not second guess the staff that is 35-3 since their arrival in Bloomington.

Weather

USC’s struggles in cold Eastern timezone games have been well documented since they joined the Big Ten.  They are just 3-2 since joining the conference in games in the Eastern Time zone, with their wins coming against Penn State and Rutgers this year, as well as Purdue last year. Those teams have a combined record of 9-21 overall. Indiana is much better than any of those teams.

Additionally, the forecasted temperature in Bloomington at kickoff is going to be 46 degrees. At 6:30, the temperature drops to 40. USC is not the same team in cold weather games, which makes sense given their west coast roster makeup. In cold weather, the run game becomes even more important. USC, even with their 15th ranked offense, is only 107th nationally in rush yards per game. This is an advantage for the Hoosiers.

Stat to Know

Under Lincoln Riley, USC is 27-6 at home, and 15-14 in road/neutral site games. They are a completely different team away from the Coliseum.

Prediction

I think Indiana tries to play this game the same way they have played all year: rely on the defense and limit mistakes on offense. Similar to how Wisconsin attacked USC a few weeks ago, I expect Indiana to control the game with the rushing attack, and force USC to play from behind. My score prediction is 20-14, which is right in line with the current spread. Indiana is the more physical team, and they will use that to control time of possession and limit the potent offense of USC.