The Setup

This is not a normal November game. Cincinnati is walking into one of the nastiest environments on the early-season slate, and Dayton has every reason to make the night miserable.

The Flyers have dropped two straight at UD Arena. Northern Illinois beat Dayton 81-76 in overtime Saturday, and Siena followed Tuesday with a 99-89 victory. A sellout crowd of 13,407 began heading for the exits with two minutes remaining, according to the Dayton Daily News. Freshman guard Aiden Derkack did not hide his frustration afterward, telling the paper, “These two losses suck.”

Now Cincinnati comes up I-75. The Bearcats have not played at UD Arena since Dec. 4, 2004, when Cincinnati left with a 65-55 win. The last three meetings took place in Cincinnati: Dayton won 82-68 in December 2023, before the Bearcats answered with victories of 66-59 in December 2024 and 74-62 last November. After 22 years without hosting Cincinnati, Dayton finally gets the Bearcats back in the building following the worst week of the Flyers’ season.

Expect a packed, hostile building and a Dayton team that wants to make a statement from the opening tip. The Flyers will feed off the crowd, and every run will raise the temperature. For Cincinnati, the challenge goes well beyond handling a road game. The Bearcats must withstand an angry opponent playing with urgency in front of a crowd that has waited two decades for this matchup.

Cincinnati enters at 2-1 after wins over American (79-53) and Green Bay (81-64), followed by Monday’s 63-61 loss to Minnesota. The Bearcats led 61-54 with 2:37 remaining but failed to score again.

KenPom ranks Cincinnati No. 41 and Dayton No. 116. The gap looks significant on paper, but rankings will mean very little once the ball goes up. A desperate Dayton team at home presents a far different challenge than the numbers suggest.

Why Dayton Remains Dangerous

Aiden Derkack gives the Flyers a legitimate centerpiece. The 6-foot-6 freshman guard has opened his career with three consecutive double-doubles, averaging 22.0 points and 10.3 rebounds. Derkack attacks downhill, finishes through contact and already knows how to put pressure on opposing defenses.

Dayton also brings size with 7-foot-1 junior forward Amaël L’Etang, who starts and averages 15.0 points per game. L’Etang gives the Flyers a reliable interior option and a presence around the rim.

There is also a familiar face in Jalen Haynes. The 6-foot-8 senior forward earned first-team All-Atlantic 10 recognition at George Mason before missing all of last season at Cincinnati with a knee injury. Haynes transferred to Dayton and has started his new chapter by going 5-5 from the field across two games. A matchup against his former program should carry extra motivation.

Cincinnati also needs to monitor senior guard Zaide Lowery, who has missed two games with a foot injury and had not returned to practice as of Tuesday.

How Dayton Plays

Offense: Attack the Paint and Get to the Line

Anthony Grant’s Dayton teams have traditionally preferred a slower pace. Last season marked an exception, with the Flyers playing at the fastest tempo of Grant’s tenure, according to Basket Under Review and Giant Killer. This season’s group sits closer to the national average. KenPom lists Dayton’s adjusted tempo at 70.5 possessions per game, 208th nationally, compared with 71.0 for Cincinnati. Neither side should expect to run the other out of the gym.

Dayton’s early offensive identity starts inside. The Flyers have converted 62.6% of their two-point attempts through three games and scored at least 40 points in the paint in every outing. L’Etang has made 15 of 23 shots, while Haynes adds another physical option around the basket.

Derkack is especially difficult to contain when he gets downhill. He has made 20 of 30 field-goal attempts and drawn 29 free throws, nearly matching his total shot attempts. Cincinnati cannot allow him to turn every drive into a trip to the line.

The perimeter remains Dayton’s biggest offensive question. The Flyers are shooting 30.1% from three. Sophomore guard Tristian Ford has provided the best outside production, making eight of 13 attempts, including all five against Siena. However, Ford went 0-4 against Northern Illinois. Sophomore guard Landen Joseph is 3-17 and junior guard Travis Perry is 2-14. Dayton finished 2-for-17 from deep against Northern Illinois.

The Flyers move the ball, recording assists on 56% of their made field goals, but turnovers remain a problem. Dayton committed 18 turnovers against Siena, which converted those mistakes into 14 steals.

What this means for Cincinnati. The Bearcats need to crowd the paint, stay in front of Derkack and make Dayton’s guards prove they can consistently hit jumpers. Cincinnati must defend without reaching or sending the Flyers to the free throw line. The Bearcats have committed just 47 fouls through three games, compared with 68 for Dayton. Maintaining that discipline could become a major advantage. Cincinnati’s pressure also offers a clear path to easy offense: the Bearcats have forced 56 turnovers, while Dayton has turned the ball over on roughly 19% of their possessions.

Defense: Rim Protection Comes With Fouling and Rebounding Concerns

Dayton can protect the rim, but the Flyers have struggled to defend without fouling and finish possessions with rebounds.

The free-throw numbers stand out. Siena went 28-33 at the line, including 24-26 in the second half. Northern Illinois finished 25-31. Opponents are reaching the stripe roughly once for every two field-goal attempts, and Dayton has been outscored by 14 made free throws through three games. After the Siena loss, Grant’s final instruction, according to the Dayton Daily News, was simple: “No fouls.”

The Flyers have also struggled on the glass. Northern Illinois collected 13 offensive rebounds and won the rebounding battle 43-29. Siena grabbed 14 offensive boards. Sophomore guard Tristian Ford pointed to the problem afterward, telling the Dayton Daily News, “Not blocking out, not doing the little things that coach talks about.”

Opponents have launched plenty of threes against Dayton, with nearly half of their field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. Those shots have fallen at only about a 30% clip, although Northern Illinois connected on 12 3-pointers.

The rim protection is legitimate. Dayton blocked nine shots against Siena, including five from junior forward Grant Randall, and opponents are shooting 48.9% on 2-point attempts. L’Etang anchors the interior, but foul trouble has limited his availability; he has picked up 4 fouls in each of the last two games.

KenPom ranks Dayton’s defense 112th nationally. Cincinnati checks in at No. 14.

**What this means for Cincinnati:** The Bearcats should challenge L’Etang early and force him to defend multiple actions. Cincinnati’s guards and forwards need to attack the rim, draw contact and put Dayton’s best interior defender in foul trouble. The Bearcats must also crash the offensive glass. Minnesota outrebounded Cincinnati 40-28 with 13 offensive rebounds, so the same weakness cannot follow the Bearcats to Dayton. With Cincinnati shooting below 30% from three, attacking the paint and earning free throws offers a more reliable offensive path than settling for jumpers.

Five Keys for Cincinnati

1. Survive the First Five Minutes

Northern Illinois struck early, carried a 40-29 lead into halftime and finished the upset. Siena survived an 8-2 Dayton opening run before taking control. A quick Flyers run would send UD Arena into a frenzy. Cincinnati needs quality looks on the first few possessions and a couple of defensive stops to quiet the crowd before the building takes over.

2. Turn Defense Into Offense

Cincinnati scored 23 points off turnovers against both American and Green Bay. The Bearcats need that same disruptive pressure in Dayton. Steals, deflections and rushed decisions can create transition chances while taking energy away from the home crowd.

3. Win the Glass — or at Least Keep the Margin Even

Minnesota beat Cincinnati 40-28 on the boards and grabbed 13 offensive rebounds. Dayton presents another difficult rebounding assignment with a 7-footer, a physical forward in Haynes and a freshman guard who rebounds like a frontcourt player. With senior forward Jayden Hastings out week-to-week, every Bearcat must take responsibility for boxing out. Senior guard Myles Colvin leads Cincinnati with 6.3 rebounds per game.

4. Find a Third Shooter

Colvin and senior guard Tylen Riley have combined for 14 of Cincinnati’s 25 made three-pointers. The rest of the roster has made 11, converting roughly one in every five attempts. Fifth-year starting guard MJ Collins Jr., has struggled from deep. If Dayton focuses its defensive attention on Riley and Colvin, another Bearcat must make the Flyers pay.

5. Finish the Game

Cincinnati held a 7-point lead with fewer than three minutes remaining against Minnesota and still lost. Free throws played a role, including Collins’ miss with five seconds left before Minnesota hit the game-winning three. In a hostile road environment, the final three minutes will demand poise, clean execution and reliable free throw shooting. The Bearcats cannot give Dayton an opening.

Players to Watch

Cincinnati: MJ Collins Jr.

Collins has been relatively quiet through Cincinnati’s first three games, but the Bearcats need his scoring ability against Dayton. He’s a guy who can put points on the board in a hurry, and Cincinnati needs him to be more aggressive looking for his shot. Riley and Colvin have carried much of the scoring load early. Getting Collins going would give the Bearcats another dangerous scorer and make the offense much tougher to defend.

Dayton: Aiden Derkack, Freshman Guard

Derkack scores, rebounds and consistently gets to the free-throw line. Cincinnati needs to keep him in front for all 40 minutes without reaching or sending him to the stripe. If Derkack controls the paint and dictates the whistle, Dayton’s offense becomes much more dangerous.

The Bottom Line

Dayton enters the matchup bruised, embarrassed and desperate for a response. Cincinnati arrives as the in-state rival, making the first trip to UD Arena in 22 years. The Flyers have lost two straight at home, and the crowd will expect a response. UD Arena should rank among the most hostile environments the Bearcats face before Big 12 play (outside of a school a couple miles down the road in Norwood.)

Cincinnati owns the stronger defense and the better résumé, but neither advantage guarantees anything in a building ready to erupt. The Bearcats must absorb Dayton’s opening punch, defend without fouling, compete on the glass and find another perimeter scorer. Someone needs to step up. Execute those details, and Cincinnati can turn the crowd’s frustration against the home team.

Fail to meet the moment, and the Flyers could turn a long-awaited home matchup into the kind of November bloodbath Dayton fans have been waiting to deliver.