The Xavier Musketeers are set to endure their first test of the season as they travel to the Greenbriar in White Sulfur Springs, West Virginia to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs at 9 p.m. on FS1. This game will tell a lot about the Muskeeteers, as it is their first matchup of the year against a Power Five opponent.

So far this season, the Musketeers have handled business against inferior opponents, picking up wins over Mount St. Mary’s (97-52), Eastern Michigan (76-53) and Detroit Mercy (100-55). Mississippi State has done the same, taking down Tennessee Tech (106-88), Northwestern State (82-44) and Jackson State (98-57).

The Musketeers will have to bring heavy physicality and resilience to the Greenbriar in order to take a win home. Mississippi State plays a hard-nosed, defense-first style of play, combined with a heavy reliance on guard play. Pitino and Co. need to have the Musketeers prepped and ready to play hard.

Checking Out the Bulldog Style and What it Means for Xavier

As mentioned above, the Bulldogs are an extremely physical team under fifth-year head coach Chris Jans. His teams are defined by pressure on the ball, intense half-court defense and strong rebounding. They are a team that will make the Musketeers work for every possession, contesting shots well and covering ball-screens with emphasis.

For the Musketeers to get past this, their shooting will have to be on point. Shooting the ball well is one of the most effective ways to take down a physical team.

The pace is a huge area of opportunity for the Musketeers, they will need to keep the game moving fast. If they allow Mississippi State’s smothering defense to slow them down, the game will work in favor of the Bulldogs. Xavier is the 5th fastest team in the country while Mississippi State is 147.

Mike Nwoko needs to stay out of foul trouble for Xavier, as his brute physicality will play a huge role in how this one plays out. Nikos Chitikoudis and Rolyns Aligbe will have to continue their  strong rebounding performances.

What Josh Hubbard Brings

6’0″ senior guard Josh Hubbard is “one of the best scorers in the country” according to head coach Richard Pitino. Through three games, he’s averaging 18 points and 5 assists. Hubbard has spent his entire college career at Mississippi State, one of just 17 players nationally to do so this season. Last season, he started in 34 games, averaging 22.1 PPG.

He has a unique way of getting buckets, playing as a high-volume, self creator. He blends deep three-point shooting with a strong stocky frame. He is the engine of the Bulldog offense, propelling them to many victories in his years at State. He also excels at drawing fouls, exhibiting an SGA-like skill. He boasts a career 82.2% rate from the stripe. His scoring skills are paired with ball security, as he possesses a career average of just 1.6 turnovers a game.

Tru Washington will likely be the main guy on Hubbard for the Musketeers. Washington is a solid defender, but he will have his hands full. Xavier will have to work on trapping Hubbard around the perimeter when possible, while also packing the paint. Typically, teams attempt to limit Hubbard as much as possible, while daring his teammates to beat them. Those teammates are in the next section.

Projected Starters

Xavier

G Tru Washington

Averaging 9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 APG and 3.0 SPG

G Ruben Dominguez

Averaging 6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 0.7 APG

F Filip Borovicanin

Averaging 7.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 5.0 APG

F Jovan Milicevic

Averaging 10.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 3.0 APG

F Mike Nwoko

Averaging 12.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 2.3 APG

Mississippi State

G Josh Hubbard

18.0 PPG, 1.0 RPG and 5.0 APG

G RJ Johnson

8.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG and 1.7 APG

F Thomas Bassong

10.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.0 APG and 1.7 BPG

F Kimani Hamilton

8.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 1.0 APG

C ND Okafor

2.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 APG and 1.3 BPG

Metrics Favor Musketeers

Both KenPom and Torvik lean Xavier’s way, but it’s close. This will be a hard-fought game, and if the Musketeers can get out of West Virginia with a win, it’ll be a nice resume builder come March.

KenPom’s Prediction: 82-79 Xavier

Torvik’s Prediction: 83-80 Xavier

Our Prediction: 85-78 Xavier