We have arrived at matchup four of the season, and the final one before a four-game home stand. Tuesday evening, the Norse head to Saint Louis for their second straight buy game. This is the first time NKU and Saint Louis will ever play. While Saint Louis isn’t a power conference team, they feature a power conference-caliber roster this season, even if Robbie Avila is unable to play.

Avila is one of the five-for-five guys who is still trying to figure out his eligibility. As of Friday, he was not playing as it worked out. News will likely break sometime Tuesday if that remains the case.

NKU is a significant underdog, coming in with an expected final score of 93-73 Saint Louis, and a 4% chance to win per KenPom. Much like the Texas A&M game Friday, the importance is on growing as a team, and continuing to grow more than the result. This is the final game this year where that sentiment will be true.

Saint Louis:

The Billikens are coming off of an impressive 90-84 victory over Missouri Friday night, and are 2-0. They beat Lehigh 92-67 to open the season.

Starting 5:

Alon Michaeli is a 6’9′ big from Israel. The Colorado transfer is averaging 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists this season. He averaged 7/4/1 last year. He is, however, also turning the ball over 3 times per game and fouling 3.5 times per matchup. NKU is going to look to pressure him throughout the night and try to get him to make poor decisions. He put up 13/9/6 against Missouri, so not only can he score, he’s a physical presence who can distribute the ball to the four shooters on the court.

Ishan Sharma is a 6’5″ junior who is a volume three point shooter. He’s 4-9 from deep this season, and exploded for 17 points against Missouri Friday night. He was on the court for 36 minutes. A year ago, he shot 42% from deep, and looks poised to replicate that performance.

Amari McCottry is a 6’6′ guard who averages 14 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists to start the year. He’s also grabbing 2 steals per game. A season ago, he shot 29% from deep. This season, he’s made both attempts so far. His length and ability to do a bit of everything is going to be tough to contain for the Norse.

Quentin Jones is a 6’5′ guard who played 35 minutes Friday night. He does a bit of everything for the Billikens. Friday he had 14 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists. He can be a bit turnover prone, but is a great distributor in general.

Trey Green is a prolific shooter for Saint Louis. A year ago, he shot 44% from deep, averaging 11 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists. The 6′ senior had a shaky, 1-5 performance to open the year, but rebounded with a 4-8 performance against Mizzou. NKU will have to keep pressure on him or he’ll light up the floor.

Rotation

Kellen Thames is the clear sixth man right now, averaging 17 minutes per game. He is averaging 12/5/1. He has not taken a three yet this year.

Cam Hutson is playing 12.5 minutes per matchup and averages 4 points and 1 rebound.

Jax Kerr is averaging 4/5/3 on the season, playing 13 minutes per game in the first two. He’s a 6’11’ forward who can step out and hit the three (2-4 against Lehigh).

Luke Laczkowski put up 10 points in 15 minutes against Lehigh, but played just 3 minutes against Missouri.

Continuity

Saint Louis returned 9 out of 11 players from a season ago, which is genuinely unheard of in college basketball. That number could jump to 10 out of 12 if Avila is available. Overall, they returned 58% of last season’s scoring.

This gives Saint Louis a significant boost headed into this season with team chemistry and knowing the overall system they want to run.

Keys to the Game:

Ethan Elliott: He was participating in drills in College Station. He has officially been listed as day-to-day. As of Monday night, there was no update and he remains questionable. I’m watching to see if he’s going to suit up for this one, or if we’ll have to wait longer to see him back in uniform. If he does come back, expect him to come off the bench.

Willie Foster: The entire nation has taken notice of Willie and what he’s doing this year at NKU. However, it’s just been three games. It’s enough for fans to get extremely excited about, however, it’s just the beginning. How does Willie do coming off a loss against another talented squad?

Paint: As mentioned above, Saint Louis isn’t a massive team in terms of size, however, they play at the rim at an extremely efficient rate. When they take 2-point attempts, which is 60% of the time, their average distance from the rim is 2.9 feet, which is best in the country. NKU must defend the paint and make SLU settle for jumpers.

Rebounding: SLU does not miss a lot, with a 65% effective field goal %, however, when they do miss, they are not good at rebounding. On defense, they allow teams to rebound 31% of their misses. NKU has to rebound the ball well, especially on offense. If they can do this, they open the game up a bit to get out and run.

Defend the Three Point Line: Saint Louis doesn’t force it, but they take 40% of their shots from deep. When they do take them, they make them at the No. 17 rate in the country (45.8%). NKU has to close out on shooters consistently or risk letting this one get out of hand quickly.

Prediction:

Saint Louis 95, NKU 74