CFP Bracketology: Predicting the Committee’s Top 25

Separation Saturday has come and gone, but true separation remains hard to find. Miami lost, while Utah remained undefeated. Georgia throttled Ole Miss and so much more! There were key results across the board, and the CFP bracket is going to be drastically changed this weekend.

Editorial Note: I began projections using the committee’s top 25 from last week, not my own, so there were movements from last week’s piece to better project the field.

1 Georgia

Beating Ole Miss 42-7 is impressive. Doing so in Oxford is ridiculous. The Bulldogs have played like the best team in the nation since falling to Auburn. They take over No. 1 after Saturday’s movement.

2 Utah

Despite being undefeated, the committee didn’t have Utah very high in their initial rankings. However, this weekend, they picked up another high-level win, beating BYU. There’s no reason Utah isn’t in the top three now.

3 Indiana

A bye week allowed Indiana to rest up and work on their offense. They move up due to the drop of Miami.

4 Alabama

Alabama hasn’t lost to LSU since 2022, and this year’s game wasn’t close. The Crimson Tide are close with Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. In all likelihood, the Tide are finishing with 2 losses, and they are in the driver’s seat for the SEC championship game with Georgia.

5 Notre Dame

6 Miami

Malachi Toney is important. We knew that. However, the Miami offense took time to adjust this weekend vs. Notre Dame. Despite the catch/no catch arguments, Notre Dame was the better team Saturday. They jumped out to a 24-3 lead and took advantage. The Irish were underseeded in the initial release, jumping up to fifth. Miami falls to sixth overall for now.

7 Texas

The Longhorns are doing a fabulous job at staying out of the headlines right now, which is what Sark, Arch, and Co. desperately need. Despite trailing by 7 in the fourth, Texas put up 21 unanswered points to win 34-20. They stay at seven for now. This weekend @ LSU is a playoff elimination game for the ages!

8 UCLA

UCLA is 9-0, but again, is just not getting respect from the committee. They went into Minnesota and won 34-20, taking care of business. Sometimes, just consistently flying under the radar is good for the team. UCLA seems to be embracing that kind of “Indiana” role from last season.

9 Tennessee

10 Kentucky

If you had Tennessee blowing the doors off of Kentucky as they did Saturday night, you’re either a Tennessee fan, or lying. While Tennessee was favored, this was quite possibly the most surprising result in the country Saturday. Kentucky turned the ball over 3 times, which was ultimately their undoing. DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris combined for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, leading the Vols back into the projected field. Kentucky remains in, but for both teams, there is no margin for error.

11 BYU

There wasn’t a bigger fan of the Fighting Irish than BYU Saturday evening. The Cougars lost to Utah 28-20 behind an uncharacteristic day from Bear Bachmeier, who threw 4 interceptions. As was mentioned for Tennessee and Kentucky, BYU’s margin for error is gone. They have to handle Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati over the next three weekends. If they’re able to do so in dominant fashion, that’d be best, as there are multiple teams right behind them hoping for this spot.

** 23 Boise – included here as G6 AQ.

Boise stays steady in the field and moves up a couple spots with losses ahead of them. They dominated Colorado State and now get to host College Gameday vs. Oregon State this weekend! I don’t see much of a real path for anyone other than Boise, unless something drastically changes.

Out of the projected field:

12 Texas Tech

Texas Tech remains just behind BYU in this projection, however, it’s razor thin. If the committee were to put them, or Wake Forest over the Cougars right now, that’s not unreasonable. Tech’s defense is suspect, and that loss to Cincinnati is not aging well. BYU’s win over Notre Dame is better than anything that Tech has and that’s why Tech remains out right now.

13 Wake Forest

Beating Merrimack 77-0 is fun, sure. However, it does absolutely nothing for your playoff hopes. Wake moves up due to losses in front of them. With Miami losing this weekend, it likely means Wake will need to win the ACC Championship game to get into the field.

14 Ole Miss

Assuming Ole Miss wins out: is a 9-3 record with wins over Missouri and LSU good enough? That’s where Ole Miss sits at this time.

Projecting the remainder of the top 25:

15 Houston

16 Iowa

17 LSU

18 USC

19 Oregon

20 South Carolina

21 Arizona

22 Missouri

23 Boise State

24 SMU

25 UTSA

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