Fast, aggressive defenses, elite talent and high-flying offenses have defined the Big 12 over the past decade. Anchored by historical powerhouse Kansas, the rise of Iowa State, Texas Tech and Baylor have combined with the additions of Arizona, BYU and Houston to create one of the most potent conferences in college basketball. Despite all those elite teams at the top of the league, though, the conference is now on a four-year title drought since the Jayhawks’ 2022 title. Is this the year the league gets back to the top of the mountain?

Turbulent waters

The Big 12 will be the league most impacted by this offseason’s courtroom chaos. Nearly every team at or near the top of the league has at least one critical rotation player caught up in an eligibility battle. Arizona, Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State could all have their seasons determined by the presence or absence of a player currently fighting in the courtroom. Despite the season starting today, these rosters are far from settled, making the conference one of the toughest to predict in the nation.

Elite defenses

The Big 12 has some of the most distinctive defensive styles in the country. From Iowa State’s constant doubles to Houston’s ball screen blitzes to Arizona’s deep drop, offenses have to change their plan of attack against elite units on the other side of the court night in and night out. The Wildcats, Cougars, Cyclones and Jayhawks are all consensus top 10 defenses across KenPom, EvanMiya and Torvik’s preseason projections, with Houston and Iowa State claiming the top two spots on KenPom. As always, coaches will have their work cut out for them to put points on the board in this league.

The Wright stuff?

If there’s a team in the Big 12 that will win with offense and offense alone, it’s BYU, and the Cougars’ ability to do so will be determined by Robert Wright III. Wright is one of the nation’s premiere shooters and can create shots for himself and his teammates, and without a talent like AJ Dybantsa beside him in the backcourt, he’ll be asked to increase his volume to compensate. He’ll need to maintain his elite efficiency in spite of that spike in usage for the Cougars to compete for a conference title in 2026-2027.

Is Cincy back?

I’ll keep this one short- you can read a full-length season preview on the Cats from SSM’s Noah Crigler here– but there’s a reason that Cincinnati has more hype than the program has seen since the Mick Cronin era, and there’s good reason for it. Don’t be surprised to see the Bearcats come March.

Can Baylor recover?

It’s been a difficult couple of years for Scott Drew’s Bears. Teams have figured out his signature “No middles” defense, and the program’s elite offensive players haven’t produced wins like they did at the start of the decade, when Baylor won a national championship. Dylan and Kayden Mingo represent another talented perimeter duo in Waco that gives the Bears sky-high upside, but they’ll need to find more offensive production around their stars than they have in recent years, and Drew will need to reclaim some of the defensive magic that made him one of the most highly regarded coaches in the country just a couple years ago.

How much can Murauskas do?

No player has more of a team’s hopes on his shoulders than Arizona State’s Paulius Murauskas. He’s the only preseason all-conference player on a team outside the Big 12 coaches’ top 7, leading the 12th-ranked Sun Devils. Murauskas is an elite scorer and the team’s best individual defender, but there’s little talent around him in Tempe. He’ll be a test this season of just how much a single player can do to lead a team to success as one of the league’s best players on what would be arguably its worst team without him.

By the numbers:

Takeaways and predictions:

The metrics are higher on Cincinnati than the coaches are entering the season, and in this case, I think the metrics are spot-on. The Bearcats have a roster and coach whose talent fall more in line with the BYU/Texas Tech tier above them than the West Virginia/Baylor tier below them. Iowa State’s second layer of volatility due to Kylian Toure’s injury keeping him out at least through the end of 2026 will hold the Cyclones back in regular season play, but Iowa State could be the league’s most dangerous team come March. Arizona feels like the complete package. Preseason player of the year Motiejus Krivas is far and away the conference’s best big man on both sides of the ball, a difference-maker that will lift the Wildcats past the competition consistently.

If there’s a sleeper team in this league, it’s Kansas State. The purple incarnation of the Wildcats have looked excellent in exhibition play, well beyond where they were expected to be in year one under new head coach Casey Alexander. Obviously, those were exhibitions, they have to prove it in games that count, but it was an encouraging sign for fans in Manhattan. In all, don’t be surprised when things come up Cats in the Big 12 this year.

Cover image courtesy Arizona Athletics.