A Realistic Path to March Madness

The Cincinnati Bearcats have not reached the NCAA Tournament since 2019, but a new era under head coach Jerrod Calhoun brings a fresh opportunity to change that. After two encouraging exhibition performances against Ohio State and Illinois, Cincinnati has given its fans plenty of reasons to believe this team can compete for a tournament bid in 2026-27.

Making the NCAA Tournament should not feel like an unrealistic goal for this group. The expanded tournament field gives Cincinnati an easier path into the Big Dance, and the Bearcats have the offensive talent, backcourt depth and coaching to make a push.

Calhoun does not need to turn Cincinnati into a national powerhouse overnight. He needs to establish a winning identity, take advantage of a favorable nonconference schedule and position the Bearcats to compete in a demanding Big 12 race. If Cincinnati handles those responsibilities, a March Madness appearance feels well within reach.

The Exhibitions Have Given Bearcats Fans Reasons for Optimism

Cincinnati opened its exhibition schedule with a 79-68 comeback victory over Ohio State. The Bearcats trailed at halftime before taking control after the break, showing the kind of offensive punch and resilience that fans want to see from a program looking to establish a new identity. .

Tylen Riley led the way with 23 points, while Tyler Tejada added 17 and Jayden Hastings contributed 16 points and six rebounds. Cincinnati also won the rebounding battle and forced 16 turnovers, showing that this group can create opportunities on both ends of the floor.

The Bearcats followed that performance with a 105-96 loss to Illinois, but the final score does not erase the positives. Cincinnati faced a talented Illinois team that reached the 2026 Final Four and stayed within striking distance in a high-scoring contest. Riley erupted for 31 points and 13 assists, giving fans another look at the scoring and playmaking he can bring to the offense.

Of course, exhibition games do not guarantee regular-season success. Everyone remembers Cincinnati toppling Michigan last preseason before Michigan went on to win the National title and Cincinnati… well, you know. Cincinnati still has defensive issues to address, especially after allowing Illinois to shoot 52.9% from the field. However, the Bearcats have already shown they can score against quality competition. If Calhoun can sharpen the defense while keeping the offense productive, this team could become a difficult matchup for the Big 12. It’s important to also note that Illinois’ offense appears to be a generational one. The combination of length and talent means they’re well on their way to an elite season this year.

Tylen Riley Could Be One of the Transfer Portal’s Best Under-the-Radar Additions

Every team chasing a tournament bid needs players who can create offense when a possession breaks down. Through Cincinnati’s first two exhibitions, Riley has looked like someone who can fill that role.

His 54 combined points against Ohio State and Illinois highlight his scoring ability, but his performance against the Illini offered an even more encouraging sign. Riley paired his 31 points with 13 assists, showing that he can create opportunities for teammates instead of relying solely on his own shot.

That combination makes Riley one of Cincinnati’s most important additions from the transfer portal. He can attack the basket, put pressure on opposing defenses and help the Bearcats generate offense late in close games. Once he gets to the free throw line, he’s lethal from there as well.

Riley’s early performances have also shown how dangerous Cincinnati could become when multiple players find their rhythm. Opponents will have to decide whether to commit extra defenders to Riley or risk letting him attack one-on-one. Either choice will create opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Two exhibition games cannot establish how consistently Riley will produce against Big 12 competition, but the early returns are promising. Cincinnati may have found a major contributor without receiving the same preseason attention as some of the conference’s biggest names.

MJ Collins Eligibility Raises Cincinnati’s Ceiling

While Riley has grabbed early attention, MJ Collins could prove equally as important to Cincinnati’s postseason aspirations.

Collins brings proven scoring ability from his previous stops at Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt and Utah State. He averaged 17.5 points per game at Utah State last season, and his experience playing under Calhoun will help him adjust to Cincinnati’s system.

His eligibility situation makes his role particularly important. With Collins available to play, Cincinnati gains another experienced guard who can score in bunches and take pressure off Riley.

Collins’ performance against Illinois also showed that he will need time to find his rhythm with a new group. He finished with eight points, two rebounds and three assists, allowing  Riley to handle much of the scoring load. That is not necessarily a concern this early in the process. Integrating another high-level scorer takes time, particularly when the roster features so many new faces.

The key will be finding the right balance. If Collins and Riley develop chemistry, Cincinnati could have two guards capable of taking over a game. That kind of offensive firepower can make a major difference during conference play, when the Bearcats will need to win games against teams with tournament-level talent.

Cincinnati’s Backcourt Could Be One of the Big 12’s Deepest

One of the biggest reasons to believe in Cincinnati’s tournament chances is the number of guards Calhoun can put on the floor.

Riley, Collins, Myles Colvin, Akai Fleming, Trevian Carson and Elijah Perryman give the Bearcats a collection of players who can contribute in different ways. Some can create their own shots, others can stretch the floor, and several bring the defensive versatility that Cincinnati will need against the Big 12’s talented backcourts.

That depth matters over the course of a long season. Injuries, foul trouble and inconsistent shooting can derail a team that relies too heavily on a small group of players. Cincinnati has the personnel to absorb those challenges without completely changing its identity. We’ve already seen this play out with Colvin missing most of the Ohio State exhibition, and Fleming/Perryman missing the entire Illinois matchup.

Colvin adds athleticism and scoring ability, while Carson brings defensive versatility. Perryman gives Calhoun another option familiar with his style from Utah State, and Fleming provides another high potential guard to consider as the rotation develops. Collins’ scoring ability and Riley’s early production give this group an especially promising foundation.

The challenge will be finding the right combinations. Having six capable guards does not automatically make a great backcourt, and Calhoun must determine which lineups complement one another best. However, the talent is there for Cincinnati to match up with some of the strongest backcourts in the conference.

If the Bearcats find the right balance between scoring, playmaking and defense, their backcourt will become one of the team’s greatest strengths.

Amani Lyles Gives Cincinnati Another Important Piece Up Front

While Cincinnati’s backcourt has plenty of potential, Calhoun’s latest addition could prove just as important to the Bearcats’ postseason hopes. Former Akron forward Amani Lyles gives Cincinnati another experienced frontcourt option who can score, rebound and defend at a high level.

Lyles developed into one of the MAC’s top players during his time at Akron, earning All-MAC First Team honors after averaging 14.9 points and 7.9 rebounds per game in 2025-26. The 6-foot-9 forward also helped the Zips capture three consecutive MAC championships, giving him valuable experience playing for a winning program.

What makes Lyles particularly intriguing is his ability to contribute in several different ways offensively. He has the size and strength to score around the basket, but he has also developed into a reliable perimeter shooter. After attempting just three three-pointers across his first two college seasons, Lyles expanded his range and became a legitimate threat from beyond the arc. That development could help Cincinnati create more space for its guards to attack the basket.

Lyles can also contribute as a screener, rebounder and secondary playmaker. He knows how to find openings in a defense, attack mismatches and create opportunities for teammates. His versatility gives Calhoun another player who can make an impact without needing to dominate the ball.

Defensively, Lyles brings the physical presence Cincinnati needs in the frontcourt. His length helps him challenge shots and disrupt passing lanes, while his strength allows him to compete around the rim and battle for rebounds. Those qualities could become especially important against the talented frontcourts Cincinnati will face throughout Big 12 play.

The addition of Lyles also gives the Bearcats another experienced player who understands what it takes to win consistently. His background at Akron, combined with his offensive development, makes him an intriguing fit for a Cincinnati team looking to return to the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, his exact role will depend on how Calhoun builds the rotation and uses his available personnel. Still, Lyles gives Cincinnati another versatile option who can stretch the floor, provide interior scoring and help the Bearcats compete physically against quality opponents.

If Cincinnati’s backcourt lives up to its potential and Lyles provides the frontcourt production his Akron career suggests he can, Calhoun could have a more balanced roster than the early attention surrounding the guards might indicate. That balance could become a major factor as the Bearcats navigate the Big 12 and pursue a return to March Madness.

A Favorable Nonconference Schedule Should Set the Tone

One of the biggest advantages Cincinnati has heading into Jerrod Calhoun’s first season is its nonconference schedule. While the Bearcats will face plenty of challenges once Big 12 play begins, their early schedule gives them a realistic opportunity to build a strong record before the competition ramps up.

Looking at the slate, Georgia, Clemson, Minnesota and Xavier stand out as the four most challenging matchups. Those games will give Cincinnati a better idea of where it stands against quality competition, but the Bearcats have a favorable path through the rest of their nonconference schedule.

Cincinnati’s schedule also includes American, Green Bay, Dayton, Youngstown State, UMass Lowell, Boston College, Monmouth, Stetson, Marist and Bethune-Cookman. While every opponent deserves respect, Cincinnati should enter most of those games with a chance to establish itself as the better team quickly and play the full rotation.

Ideally, the Bearcats should aim to win all four of their toughest nonconference matchups. Going 3-1 against Georgia, Clemson, Minnesota and Xavier would still represent a strong outcome, especially if Cincinnati takes care of business against the rest of the field. Winning all four would give Calhoun’s team an even stronger foundation heading into Big 12 play and they’d likely enter Big 12 play as a top 15 team in the rankings.

Those games will carry significant weight when the selection committee evaluates Cincinnati’s tournament résumé. Wins over quality opponents help the Bearcats build a case for an at-large bid, while a loss or two would not necessarily derail their chances if they remain competitive and avoid dropping games they should win. All 4 of those games would equate to Q1 or 2 games, which are clear resume building opportunities.

The Xavier game deserves special attention. The Crosstown Shootout carries an intensity that regular-season records cannot always predict, and a rivalry win would give Cincinnati another meaningful result to build on. The Bearcats cannot afford to overlook Xavier, regardless of how either team performs in the weeks leading up to the matchup. Both teams look to be significantly improved over last season.

The same approach applies to Georgia, Clemson and Minnesota. Cincinnati needs to treat those games as opportunities to prove it can compete with quality opponents, not simply as obstacles on the way to conference play.

Just as importantly, Cincinnati cannot afford to overlook teams such as Green Bay, Youngstown State, UMass Lowell or Monmouth. These are the types of games a team with NCAA Tournament aspirations needs to win handily. A bad loss against a lower-rated opponent will significantly devalue the resume, , making every game important even when the matchup does not look particularly challenging on paper.

Ultimately, the nonconference schedule gives Calhoun an opportunity to accomplish two things: build confidence within a new roster and put together a résumé that supports a March Madness push. If Cincinnati can go 3-1 or better against Georgia, Clemson, Minnesota and Xavier while taking care of business in the remaining games, the Bearcats will enter Big 12 play with the record and momentum needed to make a serious run at the NCAA Tournament.

The Big 12 will provide a much tougher game-to-game test, but Cincinnati can make that challenge more manageable by doing its work early. For a team trying to return to March Madness, the nonconference schedule is not just a warm-up. It is the foundation on which the entire season could be built.

The X’s and O’s Give Calhoun a Chance to Shock

Talent matters, but coaching will help determine how far Cincinnati goes this season.

Calhoun arrives in Cincinnati with a track record of building competitive teams. He led Utah State to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances before taking over his alma mater, and he now has an opportunity to bring that success to the Bearcats.

His experience gives Cincinnati an advantage as the team navigates the growing pains that come with a new system. The Bearcats have multiple players who can score, and Calhoun must find ways to turn that individual talent into efficient team offense.

The early exhibitions suggest that Cincinnati can create scoring opportunities against good competition. Riley’s ability to attack the basket and distribute the ball gives the offense a starting point, while Collins and the rest of the backcourt provide additional options.

This team also has the talent to win a couple of games that Cincinnati is not supposed to.

The Big 12 schedule will feature difficult road environments and matchups against teams with more established chemistry. Still, Cincinnati has enough offensive firepower to make opponents uncomfortable. A deep backcourt gives Calhoun different ways to attack defensive weaknesses, and his experience preparing teams for postseason basketball will help when the Bearcats face unfamiliar challenges.

The next step is consistency. Cincinnati must defend without giving away easy baskets, limit turnovers and finish possessions with rebounds. The Illinois exhibition showed how quickly a talented opponent can punish defensive mistakes. If Calhoun tightens those areas, Cincinnati can turn several close games into important wins.

Brad Underwood Sees a Tournament Team

Perhaps the most encouraging endorsement came from Illinois head coach Brad Underwood after his team’s exhibition victory over Cincinnati.

Underwood praised Calhoun’s coaching and offered a strong assessment of the Bearcats’ potential.

“I’m so impressed with Jerrod (Calhoun). It’s my first time in the building, a place that I felt like I was familiar with because of my relationship with coach Huggins. I knew exactly what we were getting when we scheduled this, and it is a very well-coached team,” Underwood said. “This team’s going to be fun to watch. This is an NCAA Tournament team that’s going to continue to get better.”

That is a notable statement from a coach whose Illinois team reached the 2026 Final Four and has aspirations to make the national title this season. Underwood saw Cincinnati compete against his group and came away believing the Bearcats have the pieces to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, one coach’s opinion does not guarantee a tournament bid. Cincinnati still has to prove itself over the course of the regular season, and exhibition performances carry no weight in the official standings.

Still, Underwood’s assessment reinforces what the early performances have suggested: Cincinnati has enough talent and coaching to make a postseason run a realistic expectation rather than an overly optimistic prediction.

The Expanded Tournament Creates More Opportunity

The timing also works in Cincinnati’s favor.

Beginning this season, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will expand from 68 teams to 76. The new format adds eight spots and introduces a larger Opening Round before the traditional 64-team bracket begins.

That change gives more teams an opportunity to reach March Madness, including programs that might have narrowly missed the cut under the previous format.

For Cincinnati, the expansion adds another reason to believe a tournament appearance is within reach. The Bearcats play in a strong conference that offers opportunities for quality wins, and they have a roster with the potential to compete for an at-large bid.

However, expansion should not become an excuse for Cincinnati to lower its expectations. The Bearcats should aim to build a résumé that leaves little doubt about their place in the field rather than hoping to sneak into one of the final spots.

A competitive Big 12 record, a strong nonconference performance and continued improvement throughout the season would put Cincinnati in a much better position when the selection committee evaluates the field.

NKY Bracketology has Cincinnati slated as a 6 seed to open the season in the preseason bracket that will come out on October 30.

So, What Defines Success in Year One?

For me, success in Calhoun’s first season starts with getting Cincinnati back into the NCAA Tournament conversation and giving the program a legitimate chance to play in March.

The Bearcats have a favorable opportunity to build momentum early, a deep backcourt with multiple scoring options and a head coach who understands what it takes to reach the tournament. Their first two exhibitions have offered encouraging signs, even if the loss to Illinois exposed areas that need improvement.

I do not expect Cincinnati to win every game or immediately challenge for a Big 12 championship. This roster still needs time to develop chemistry, and the defensive side of the ball will determine whether its offensive potential translates into consistent results.

But the pieces are in place for a successful first season under Calhoun. Riley looks like a highly impactful transfer addition, Collins will give the offense another dimension as long as he is eligible, and the depth across the backcourt should help Cincinnati compete throughout the season.

The expanded tournament field makes the goal more attainable, but the Bearcats still need to earn their place. They must protect home court, take advantage of the nonconference schedule and find ways to win games against opponents with more established rosters.

Calhoun has already shown that he can build tournament teams. Now he has the opportunity to do it in Cincinnati.

Making March is a realistic goal for the Bearcats this season. If the offense continues to develop, the defense improves and the backcourt lives up to its potential, Cincinnati could turn a promising start to the Calhoun era into a return to the NCAA Tournament.

And for a program that has waited since 2019 to hear its name called on Selection Sunday, that would represent a meaningful first step in the right direction.

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