Going with a twist for this week’s bowl projections, teams are placed by their projected finish, rather than going off of current rankings. This means that the College Football Playoff will look much different from recent weeks. With many high stakes games left to be played, we try to predict the results within the bounds of reality.

Celebration Bowl (Dec. 12 at 12 PM EST)

Morgan State vs Grambling State

Arizona Bowl (TBD)

Ohio vs North Dakota State

Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 15 at 5:30 PM EST)

UAB vs Buffalo

Frisco Football Classic (Dec. 15 at 9 PM EST)

Appalachian State vs Central Michigan

Boca Raton Bowl (Dec.18 at 11 AM EST)

East Carolina vs Marshall

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 18 at 2:30 PM EST)

South Florida vs Louisiana

Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 21 at 11 AM EST)

Texas State vs Eastern Michigan

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 21 at 2:30 PM EST)

San Jose State vs Troy

Puerto Rico Bowl (Dec. 22 at 1:30 PM EST)

South Alabama vs Tulsa

Cure Bowl (Dec. 22 at 5 PM EST)

Western Michigan vs Liberty

Independence Bowl (Dec. 22 at 8:30 PM EST)

Florida Atlantic vs Arizona State

New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 23 at 2 PM EST)

Jacksonville State vs Georgia State

Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23 at 5:30 PM EST)

Kansas State vs Army

Poinsettia Bowl (Dec. 23 at 7:30 PM EST)

New Mexico vs Oregon State

Frisco Bowl (Dec. 23 at 9 PM EST)

Middle Tennessee State vs UMass

New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 24 at 2:30 PM EST)

James Madison vs UNLV

Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24 at 7 PM EST)

FIU vs Fresno State

Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 26 at 12 PM EST)

Virginia vs Minnesota

Fenway Bowl (Dec. 26 at 2 PM EST)

Virginia Tech vs North Texas

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 26 at 3:30 PM EST)

Pittsburgh vs Wisconsin

68 Ventures Bowl (Dec. 26 at 5:30 PM EST)

Louisiana Tech vs Toledo

Cactus Bowl (Dec. 26 at 7:30 PM EST)

Michigan vs Cincinnati

Military Bowl (Dec. 28 at 2 PM EST)

Duke vs UTSA

Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28 at 5 PM EST)

Clemson vs Oregon

Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 29 at 2 PM EST)

Auburn vs Memphis

Pop Tarts Bowl (Dec. 29 at 5:30 PM EST)

Louisville vs Houston

Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29 at 9 PM EST)

Texas Tech vs UCLA

Gator Bowl (Dec. 30 at 11:30 PM EST)

SMU vs Tennessee

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30 at 3 PM EST)

Nebraska vs Florida

Reliaquest Bowl (Dec. 31 at 12 PM EST)

Iowa vs Missouri

Sun Bowl (Dec. 31 at 2 PM EST)

North Carolina vs USC

Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 31 at 3:45 PM EST)

Arizona vs Oklahoma

Texas Bowl (Dec. 31 at 7:30 PM EST)

BYU vs Texas A&M

Citrus Bowl (Jan. 2 at 12 PM EST)

Northwestern vs Kentucky

First Responder Bowl (Jan. 2 at 3:30 PM EST)

UCF vs Air Force

Liberty Bowl (Jan 2. At 7:30 PM EST)

Baylor vs LSU

CFP First Round:

8/9:

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma State

Despite two top 10 matchups still to play against Texas and Georgia, Ole Miss is in a good spot to make it into the CFP. Winning both would likely boost the Rebels farther up, but even just one win would keep them in the driver’s seat for a home playoff game. Oklahoma State’s two toughest matchups remaining are on the road against Houston and at home versus Texas Tech. They would have to win both of these games to avenge the Tulsa loss and make it to this spot, but with Drew Mestemaker receiving buzz for a top 5 selection in the 2027 NFL Draft, this prediction is not far fetched for one of CFB’s most electric offenses.

5/12:

Notre Dame vs Boise State

Notre Dame has two big games on this year’s schedule: at BYU (this week) and versus Miami. While the Irish are not expected to beat Miami, a win at BYU would be enough for a 11-1 Notre Dame to be as high as a 5 seed, knocking on the door for a bye. Boise State still holds the Group of 6 auto-bid from the Pac-12. As the only G6 team ranked and a manageable schedule remaining, the Broncos control their own destiny at this point. A loss would welcome James Madison, Memphis and Liberty into the CFP conversation.

7/10:

Indiana vs Texas

Right now, Indiana would play Ohio State twice if the Hoosiers are unable to beat the Buckeyes this weekend and both teams win out the rest of the way. A double whammy results in a 7 seed home game for Indiana at 11-2. Their only other ranked matchup is against USC. On the flip side, Texas finds themselves on the right side of the bubble. We have them projected as a 10-2 team, with their only other loss coming against Ole Miss. A third loss would complicate matters, pushing the Longhorns into a large group of three loss teams looking to make it in.

6/11:

Alabama vs Wake Forest

Similar to Indiana, Alabama should win the rest of their games and would meet Georgia again in the SEC Championship if they win out as well, which is projected to happen. Losing a second game to the Bulldogs would put the Tide at 11-2, with both losses against the No. 1 team in the country. There is a chance Alabama jumps Notre Dame in this scenario, but for now they sit a spot behind the Irish. A second ACC team takes the final at-large spot in Wake Forest. Their toughest game remaining is on the road at SMU. Winning out would take the Demon Deacons to Charlotte, pitted against the projected No. 2 team in the country and undefeated Miami Hurricanes. With multiple ranked wins on the road and their only losses against No. 2, Wake Forest should be able to make it in over both a 1-2 loss Big 12 and a 2-3 loss SEC team. 2024 SMU is a historical example of this being the case.

CFP Quarterfinals:

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30 at 7:30 PM EST)

4 Utah vs Notre Dame

13-0 Utah is what gets them the 4 seed. They would not have as flashy a resume as the three teams ahead of them, but wins over Houston and BYU do the job to get them a bye, along with being the Big 12 champion. Facing Notre Dame would be Utah’s toughest test to this point. CJ Carr and Leonard Moore solidify themselves as  top 10 NFL draft picks in this game, leading the Irish to the next round.

Peach Bowl (Jan 1. at TBD)

1 Georgia vs Oklahoma State

With all eyes on Drew Mestemaker going up against the No. 1 team in the country, 13-0 Georgia, scouts will remember what the Kirby Smart pipeline has to offer on both sides of the ball. Gunner Stockton will have a chance to make a name for himself with a deep run in the playoffs. The all around talent for Georgia holds off a potential upset bid by Oklahoma State.

Cotton Bowl (Jan. 1 at TBD)

2 Miami vs Indiana

Miami gets another jab at Indiana in this scenario after last year’s defeat in the National Championship. Improvement in all facets of Miami’s game shows in their 13-0 record, with a win over Notre Dame on their resume. Mario Cristobal gets his revenge on Curt Cignetti and leads Miami back home to the Orange Bowl, with Darian Mensah building his own top 5 NFL draft pick resume.

Rose Bowl (Jan 1. at TBD)

3 Ohio State vs Alabama

We had this matchup last week, but with the teams flipped. Alabama showed their composure against a title contender and were a few plays away from beating Georgia. Ohio State has the best receiver in the nation and prospective No. 1 overall pick in Jeremiah Smith, and the 2020 National Championship between these two teams, where Heisman receiver DeVonta Smith took over to boost Alabama to victory, gives us reason to believe Smith will do the same in this matchup.

CFP Semifinals:

Orange Bowl (Jan 14. at 7:30 PM EST)

Miami vs Ohio State

Sugar Bowl (Jan 15. At 7:30 PM EST)

Georgia vs Notre Dame

Conference Winners:

ACC

Miami

American

Memphis

Big 12

Utah

Big Ten

Ohio State

CUSA

Liberty

MAC

Western Michigan

Mountain West

New Mexico

Pac-12

Boise State

SEC

Georgia

Sun Belt

James Madison

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