A game that last year was basically an assured victory is suddenly an intriguing contest. Miami travels to Amherst, Massachusetts to take on an upstart UMass team. The Minutemen are 4-1 on the year and are one of the biggest surprises of the year.
Many might remember the stunning 37-21 victory at Rutgers to open the season. The Minutemen then defeated Sacred Heart and Stonehill at home before grabbing their first MAC win at Sacramento State two weeks ago. They suffered their first defeat last week 38-14 against Eastern Michigan.
UMass Offense
On offense, UMass runs the ball 61% of the time, averaging 5.2 yards per rush. When they do throw the ball, they are No. 2 in the country with a 77% completion percentage. They don’t allow QB William Watson III to be pressured often, ranking No. 5 in the country in sack percentage.
William Watson III leads the Minutemen under center and he is 74-100 for 820 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He has carried the ball 30 times for 167 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Curtis Kimmons IV and Elijah Faulkner form a two-headed beast in the backfield. Kimmons has 262 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Faulkner has 246 yards on the year.
From a receiving standpoint, T.Y. Harding has 19 catches for 236 yards and 2 TD’s. Jabari Lewis (10/152), and Max Dowling (11/80) round out the top three receiving targets for the Minutemen. Joseph Griffin Jr. is an explosive threat, with 8 catches and averaging 17 yards per catch.
UMass Defense:
UMass has the no. 44 defense in the country in points per game, allowing 21.7. They are No. 53 in yards per game on defense, giving up 360. Where they struggle is 3rd down%, where they are allowing opponents to complete 50% of their attempts. They have an elite rushing defense, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, and 107 yards per game. Both are ranked no. 26 in the country.
The Minuteman defense is anchored by linebacker Timmy Hinspeter, who has 40 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery on the year. Jahmad Harmon had 11 tackles on the year, but he has 3 interceptions (one for a touchdown) and 2 pass deflections.
Keys to the Game:
After last week, Miami is looking to rebound and finish the game, unlike they were able to do against Bowling Green.
Establish the passing attack. Miami’s offense is No. 24 in the country with 279 yards per game through the air. However, with Heavner in the lead last weekend, they threw for just 198 yards and a touchdown. Heavner did exactly what was asked of him, however, he was unable to generate explosive plays and a majority of his throws were “safe”. He will need to open things up with his arm as UMass’s rushing defense is elite.
Protect the QB. Last week, Miami allowed 6 sacks. When you’re trying to ease a new quarterback into the game, allowing 6 sacks is a great way to ruin any confidence or momentum he will gain.
The defense has to defend the passing attack. As mentioned above, UMass has a potent passing game, and Miami’s pass defense ranks among the worst in the country. They’re No. 121 in completion percentage, opponent pass yards per game and No. 108 in yards per pass. Opponents have noticed this, thus, they’re attacking the RedHawks through the air 58%.
Prediction
Miami 31, UMass 28