MEETING INFO:
When: Friday, Oct. 9, 7:00 p.m.
Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Watch: ESPN
Meeting History: Louisville is 6-19 all-time versus Florida State
Last Meeting: (12/2/2023) Louisville 6, Florida State 16
Louisville looks to stop the bleeding after consecutive 3-point losses. The Cardinals enter this game 2-3, coming off a 31-28 defeat versus NC State.
A Look at Louisville:
Offensively, the Cardinals are living up to their potential, ranking 17th in yards per game and 22nd in points per game.
Junior quarterback Lincoln Kienholz was the second-highest graded Power 4 QB in week 5. Kienholz went 21-30 for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss versus the Wolfpack, even when not being 100% healthy. Nationally, Kienholz ranks 13th in passing yards with 1,394.
Louisville ranks as having the 37th rushing offense in the FBS, but still hasn’t found consistency in that facet. Junior Isaac Brown had his first signature moment of the season on a 70-yard touchdown run, but hasn’t been as effective as many hoped. Thanks to that long run, Brown had his first 100-yard game of the season versus the Wolfpack. The usually-reliable senior Keyjuan Brown lost 2 fumbles Saturday, and NC State scored ten points off of them. While you won’t see both Browns get 100 yards per game every week, the offense would benefit from better consistency in the running game.
Senior WR Tre Richardson is coming off of his best game as a Cardinal, having 8 catches for 117 yards and a score. Richardson is on pace for a 1,000 yard season.
Defensively, things have gone from bad to worse quickly. The unit ranks 125th in yards per game allowed and 113th in average points per game allowed. Both categories rank as second-worst in the ACC, ahead of Stanford. The overwhelming liability is passing defense, which ranks 130th out of 138 FBS teams. Last week, NC State junior QB CJ Bailey threw for a career-high 373 yards.
A Look at Florida State:
Florida State comes to Louisville with a 3-2 record, and 1-1 in the ACC. Last week, FSU defeated Virginia handedly, 38-7. Their two losses both came to ranked teams: a 27-24 defeat versus then No. 19 SMU, and a 50-36 loss versus then No. 10 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. In their past two games (Central Arkansas and Virginia), Florida State has outscored their opponents 72-14. Despite his success, head coach Mike Norvell’s seat is still warm, and a win Friday night would be crucial for his job security.
Overall, Florida State is a well-balanced team. Offensively, they don’t necessarily excel or fail at any certain category. The Noles rank 51st nationally in yards per game and 58th in points per game.
FSU ranks as having the 77th passing offense, led by senior quarterback Ashton Daniels. This is Daniels’ third team in three years, playing with Stanford in 2024 and Auburn in 2025. He’s a very interesting talent, with tendencies to turn the ball over frequently. In his career, Daniels has 32 total turnovers. This season, through five games, he’s already thrown 6 interceptions. His ability to throw the football is very much living by the edge. Against Alabama, Daniels threw for 377 yards and 2 touchdowns, but had 3 interceptions. Normally, he gets a healthy balance of designed throws and runs. Last week versus Virginia, Daniels threw 19 times and ran 17 times. He finished the game with 183 passing yards and 136 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores (a school record for a QB).
Supplemented by Daniels’ ability, the Florida State rushing offense ranks 40th nationally in yards per game. He is their second-leading rusher, with 278 yards on the year. Sophomore Ousmane Kromah has 477 yards on the ground through five games. Kromah had the best game of his young career against SMU, having 22 carries for 116 yards and 1 touchdown. He’s a hard runner who’s hard to bring down and will be one of the best backs the Cardinal defense faces year long. The Louisville run defense has had some inconsistent stretches this season, so Daniels and Kromah could give them some fits.
Daniels has three good options lining out at receiver. One of which is senior wide receiver Duce Robinson, who is the team’s leading-receiver with just under 300 yards on the year. Last season, Robinson had a remarkable campaign, finishing with over 1,000 yards, 6 touchdowns, and earning First Team All-ACC honors. His 6-6 frame gives him a major advantage as a downfield target, allowing him to use his size and physicality to make explosive plays.
On the defensive side, Florida State ranks 56th in points per game allowed and 103rd in yards per game allowed. Through the first four games of the season, Florida State generated 7 sacks. Last week alone, the Seminoles went for 10 total sacks; senior defensive lineman Rylan Kennedy leads the team with 4. Florida State’s defense enters Friday’s matchup coming off its strongest performance of the season, holding Virginia to just 205 total yards. After allowing 587 yards to SMU and 567 to Alabama, the Florida State defense has made great strides in recent weeks.
Keys for the Cardinals:
- Bring The Pressure: Ashton Daniels is a turnover-prone QB, and with his elusive ability, the Cardinals need to keep him contained. Bring pressure and force Daniels to make haste decisions. With as bad as the pass defense has been, it wouldn’t hurt to put the game in the hands of a talented front.
- Ball Security: Louisville’s 5 fumbles against NC State were fatal for a game lost by 3 points. The Cardinals are going to need to clean up their ball security against a Florida State offense who has averaged 36 points in their last three games.
- Protect Kienholz: Florida State’s defense is coming off a 10-sack performance against Virginia, its most in a game since 1989 (stat via Tomahawk Nation). Louisville’s offensive line will have to keep Lincoln Kienholz clean after giving up 7 sacks over the last two games.
Game Prediction:
Louisville 31, Florida State 28