MEETING INFO:
When: Saturday, Sept. 19, 3:30 p.m. (EST)
Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Watch: ESPN2
Meeting History: Louisville is 0-4 all-time against SMU
Last Meeting: (11/22/25) Louisville 6, SMU 38
The Louisville Cardinals picked up their first win Friday in a 59-13 blowout of the Villanova Wildcats and now turn to prepare for one of the most important games of the year. Saturday, No. 23 Louisville (1-1) hosts No. 16 SMU (2-0) in a battle of ranked ACC contenders and one that will play a big role in deciding what teams get to play for the conference title.
A Look at Louisville:
Louisville jumped up one spot in the AP Poll following its first victory of the season. Even with a slow start, the Cardinals cruised to a big win over Villanova. With SMU up next, Louisville will look to build off its offensive success and show it can compete against another ranked opponent.
The talk of the town is junior quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who is already setting records. Against Ole Miss, he became the first Card to throw for 300 yards in his debut. This past week, he became the first Louisville QB with 275 passing yards, 2+ pass TD and 2+ rush TD in a half since Lamar Jackson. He’s a true dual threat who is already finding comfort in his first season of starting. In his first two games, Kienholz has faced struggles early in both. However, he bounced back and settled in. His athleticism makes him a threat on the ground just as much as throwing the football, and he is just getting started.
The backfield has been underwhelming to start the year. Isaac and Keyjuan Brown have yet to record over 100 yards rushing or a touchdown so far this season, which has come as a surprise. What has been a major factor in the Louisville offense the past two seasons has had trouble getting going. To supplement a developing quarterback, the ground game would open up a whole other dimension of the offense. The offensive line’s performance is key for a successful running game.
Wide receivers Tre Richardson and Lawayne McCoy are as good as advertised. Both combined for 200 yards against Villanova and showcased their areas of strength. Richardson excels in the ability to put on the burners and make someone miss, while McCoy can be a reliable deep threat. Both of McCoy’s touchdown receptions this year have come from passes 50+ yards out. Both Richardson and McCoy are building great chemistry with Kienholz and are wasting no time making an impact.
The defense is slow to get things going. They currently rank 118th in pass defense and 97th in yards allowed per game. Against Ole Miss and Villanova, Louisville allowed three 60+ yard touchdown passes. SMU’s offense is built on making big plays, and the Cardinals cannot afford to give them up. The defense also committed 5 penalties against Villanova, including multiple penalties on third-and-long. SMU is capable of quickly turning mistakes into points, so Louisville will need to fix these mental errors.
A Look at SMU:
SMU enters Saturday as the No. 16 team in the country. In Week 1, the Mustangs beat Florida State 27-24, and followed that up with a crushing 46-point victory over UC Davis. Since 2024, the Mustangs have gone 15-3 against ACC opponents. In their short time as a member of the ACC, SMU has consistently been one of the conference’s best, and remains a top contender to win the league this season.
SMU is led by star senior quarterback Kevin Jennings. Last year, Jennings had a career high in passing yards (3,641) and passing touchdowns (26), and he hasn’t taken a step back. Jennings is the nation’s leader in total offense and has amassed nearly 800 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. In both of his career games against the Cardinals, Jennings has thrown for over 280 yards without an interception.
They haven’t gotten a ton of production from the backfield yet, but the talent is there. The Mustangs’ leading runner is Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael, who rushed for over 900 yards last season. In Cal’s 2025 overtime win over Louisville, he picked up 83 yards and a score. Raphael is a tough runner with a high motor; expect him to get plenty of touches.
The receiving room has plenty of good options, as four pass catchers enter Saturday with over 100 yards. Junior East Carolina transfer Yannick Smith is a big-play threat with 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Against Florida State, Smith took a 6-yard slant pass 79 yards for the score, reaching speeds of 20.2 MPH (according to Reel Analytics). He excels with his speed and from outside as well. Yamir Knight leads the team in receptions and is coming off consecutive 600-yard seasons. He stands at 5-foot-8 and utilizes the short game and finding open holes in the defense.
SMU is coming off a year to forget on defense, finishing 88th in yards per game allowed. The weakest aspect of that unit was pass defense, as they allowed about 280 yards through the air per game. However, SMU’s pass defense has been much improved, allowing just under 300 total passing yards in two games. The defense has allowed just 278.5 yards per game while holding both Florida State and UC Davis below 325 total yards. The Mustangs’ biggest strength has been third-down defense, limiting opponents to a combined 4-of-27 on third-down attempts. SMU has also generated pressure with five sacks and 13 tackles for loss through two games.
Keys for the Cards:
Pressure Jennings: Louisville will need to create pressure and attack Kevin Jennings. He is deadly when given the chance to extend plays and buy extra time, making it important for the Cardinals to keep him in the pocket and disrupt his rhythm. Louisville cannot afford to give up big plays or let Jennings get comfortable. The defense has recorded only one sack so far, and getting consistent pressure on Jennings will be crucial to slowing down SMU’s offense.
Slow it Down: For as explosive as this SMU offense is, Louisville should work to keep them off the field as long as possible. Eating up the play clock, going down in bounds, and sustaining long drives will not only wear down the SMU defense but also limit the number of opportunities the Mustangs have to put points on the board. Louisville doesn’t need to score quickly. Controlling the clock and keeping SMU’s offense on the sideline can be just as important.
Avoid Third and Long: As mentioned, the SMU defense has been one of the best on third down, allowing opponents to convert on only 14.8% of their attempts. Louisville cannot put itself in these situations and risk forcing the football into a defense that has been much improved. Staying ahead of the chains and protecting Kienholz will be key to sustaining drives and maintaining good field position.
Game Prediction:
Louisville 34, SMU 31