Every season, the inevitable happens: in a results-based world, coaches are measured by their success. Today, with the Transfer Portal and NIL, that measurement comes on an even quicker trigger. As more money funnels into programs, expectations for immediate results rise with it — multi-year rebuilds are no longer a luxury administrations are willing to grant. Historic success matters, but it’s no longer a golden ticket. Welcome to the college football hot seat tracker.

For this list, the standard is simple: record vs. expectations. Not just wins and losses, but whether a program is meeting the bar its resources, recruiting, and recent history have set for it. Here’s an early look at the coaches already on the college football hot seat this season.

1. Dabo Swinney – Buyout $57 million

Much of what I alluded to with the new era boils down to Dabo. Unfortunately for him, he has refused to adapt in a timely manner in the portal era. That has resulted in increasingly disappointing results over the last several years. Now we’re here talking about the real possibility he loses his job.

The 51-10 loss to LSU was abysmal, not competitive aside from the opening drive, and it looked like a program that’s fallen behind the way the sport is played now. Clemson’s buyout is the largest on this list by a wide margin, which is the only thing keeping this from being a much shorter conversation.

2. Greg Schiano – Buyout ~ 18 million

Rutgers opened the season by snapping a losing streak. The bad news for Rutgers is they broke UMass’s losing streak when Rutgers was favored by 30. Schiano is another case of you can’t go home again. He hasn’t had it in this second tenure, and I’d expect this to be the last year of it. Rutgers may only win a game or two this season. I believe Schiano will be let go following this year.

3. Mike Norvell – Buyout $45 million

Is it time for lights out on Norvell’s tenure at Florida State? The Seminoles opened the year with a win over New Mexico State before dropping their ACC opener at home to SMU by 3 points. They have a bye before hosting Alabama. A loss there would leave Norvell staring down an 1-2 start and 0-2 in true tests, and that could very well move him to the top of the list of coaches let go this season.

4. Luke Fickell – Buyout ~ $20 Million depending on timing

17-22 is just absolutely unacceptable for a proud Wisconsin program. Most of the country, including myself, thought Fickell would be the answer in Madison. However, the NIL and portal era caused havoc for the former Bearcat coach, and he and the program have struggled to keep up. This season’s roster is his most expensive yet, and the schedule lines up well to stack wins. If the team that showed up for the first half of the Notre Dame game is here all year, Fickell plays his way to safety. If it’s the second-half team, this could very well be his final year.

5. Dave Aranda – Buyout ~ $15 million

Baylor is a basketball school, sure. But they want to be competitive in both hoops and football, and this cycle of losing season, winning season, losing season isn’t going to cut it anymore. DJ Lagway is in the building now, and the offense looked good on Saturday, but Baylor fell a two-point conversion short of knocking off TCU. Aranda has the talent on the roster to finally break the cycle this year. If he doesn’t, the program is one who will exhibit patience, but isn’t afraid to make a change if needed.

6. Bill O’Brien – Buyout ~ $10 million

2-10 last year, minimal NIL, and a history of struggling in the ACC: that sums up what O’Brien is facing at Boston College. The administration put more money into the program, but they’re still in the basement of the ACC, and they just lost 34-15 to Cincinnati to open the year. Rutgers is up next in Week 2, and that game will likely go a long way toward deciding one of these coaches’ futures.

Keep an eye on: Bill Belichick

Belichick is only a year into his first college job, and North Carolina hasn’t had to face this decision before, so there’s no real precedent to point to. But as if a four-win season wasn’t enough, now Belichick is dealing with another scandal. Michael Lombardi has resigned, and Steve Belichick is also being investigated. This is a tenure that could get ugly quickly if Belichick is found to have been complicit in any of it, even if he leads UNC to a good year on the field.

The coaching carousel is turning, and there will be a plethora of teams who will see coaching changes this offseason. The first hot seat domino will trigger a landslide, and we’ll have it all covered here!