College football is finally here, and the road to the CFP starts now!
The offseason is over. The preseason debates are about to give way to actual games, and before we know it, every Saturday will start shaping the road to Las Vegas.
That means it is time for the first Sansom Sports Media College Football Playoff Bracketology of the 2026 season.
And if this projection is any indication, the road to the 2027 national championship is going to be absolutely brutal.
The 12-team College Football Playoff returns for its third season, with the top four seeds earning first-round byes while seeds 5-12 battle it out at campus sites. The quarterfinals begin with the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30 before the remaining three quarterfinals are played on New Year’s Day. The semifinals will be held at the Orange and Sugar Bowls, with the national championship coming Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
So, who is getting in?
Here’s our first projection.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
There is no reason to overthink this one.
Ohio State enters the season as the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll, receiving 40 of 69 first-place votes. The Buckeyes also have arguably the most complete combination of talent, depth and championship expectations in the country.
The schedule, however, is going to force Ohio State to earn this seed.
A trip to Texas on Sept. 12 immediately gives the Buckeyes a massive measuring-stick game, while Oregon, Indiana and several other ranked opponents await in the Big Ten.
But until somebody knocks them off, Ohio State is the team sitting at the top of the mountain. The biggest question for the Buckeyes is can they avoid taking 3 losses?
Biggest Game of the year: 9/12 @ Texas. We all know what to expect regarding The Game, and OSU will be challenged in October with road trips to Indiana, USC, and then a 11/7 date with Oregon, however, that UT game determines their margin for error and sets the tone immediately.
Projected seed: No. 1
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia doesn’t have to be perfect to get here. However, they’re an early contender to go undefeated this season.
The Bulldogs have established themselves as one of the most reliable programs in the country, and the preseason expectations remain sky-high. Georgia sits No. 3 in the AP preseason poll, behind only Ohio State and Oregon.
The SEC is going to beat up on itself, but Georgia has enough talent to survive the league’s weekly gauntlet.
And if the Bulldogs get into December healthy (or at least, mostly healthy), this is the type of team nobody wants to see on the other side of the bracket.
Biggest Game of the year: @ Ole Miss. This comes off the heels of a brutal 3 game stretch (@ Alabama, vs. Auburn, vs. Florida), and Ole Miss is the toughest team on the schedule.
Projected seed: No. 2
3. Oregon Ducks
Oregon is entering dangerous territory.
Not because the Ducks are a bad team—they are anything but—but because expectations are now championship-or-bust.
Oregon enters the season No. 2 in the AP preseason rankings, its highest preseason ranking in program history. The Ducks are coming off a 13-2 season and have already proven they can compete at the highest level of the sport.
The question isn’t whether Oregon belongs in the Playoff.
The question is whether the Ducks can finally finish the job.
A top-three seed keeps Oregon away from the first-round chaos and puts them directly into the quarterfinal picture.
Biggest Game of the year: @ Ohio State 11/7. The Ducks also have USC on the road in September, however, the most important game is what could very well be a 1 v. 2 at Ohio Stadium.
Projected seed: No. 3
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame gets the final first-round bye.
That distinction will be enormous.
The Irish enter the season ranked No. 4 in the preseason AP Poll, and after missing the Playoff in 2025, Marcus Freeman’s program enters 2026 with plenty to prove. They should have a chip on their shoulder as well.
Notre Dame won’t have the luxury of a conference championship game to strengthen its résumé, which means the margin for error remains razor thin. However, they do get the “AQ” if they are ranked in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings, an extremely significant distinction that is new this year.
The talent is absolutely there for this team. Can they stay healthy? Will they have enough out of the backfield after Love went to the NFL?
And if Notre Dame takes care of business, the Irish should have a very real opportunity to enter the postseason as one of the four teams sitting comfortably on the sidelines during the opening weekend.
Biggest Game of the year: vs. Miami 11/7. This matchup features two heavyweights who are looking to make a CFP push this season. Miami is looking to avenge last year’s loss to IU in the CFP title game, while ND is looking to just get back into the CFP. ND also has a matchup in Provo vs. BYU, and a matchup with CFP hopeful SMU, though SMU would likely need to win the ACC to get there.
Projected seed: No. 4
THE FIRST ROUND
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Boise State
This is where things get interesting.
Indiana is the defending national champion, yet the Hoosiers enter 2026 only No. 6 in the preseason AP Poll.
That is a fascinating spot.
The defending champion doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt simply because of what happened last season. Indiana has to prove it can reload, survive the expectations and navigate a Big Ten schedule that is once again loaded.
Boise State, meanwhile, represents exactly the kind of lower-seeded opponent nobody wants in the first round.
This would be a legitimate test.
Biggest Game of the year (Indiana): vs. Ohio State 10/17. You could go with multiple options here. They go to Michigan a week after the OSU game, they host USC, and they travel to Washington, however if IU wants to get where they believe they belong, they need to continue to win the biggest games.
Biggest Game of the year (Boise): In all honesty, it’s the Pac-12 Championship game. However, to secure the bid, they will need to be nearly perfect. They open the season on 9/5 against Oregon. That matchup is vital for Boise. If they come out and compete in Eugene immediately, they’ve announced they’re a playoff caliber team. However, if they get their doors blown off, they’re in trouble and the narrative will be against them all year.
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Oklahoma
This could be the most entertaining first-round matchup in the entire bracket.
Miami has the talent to make a deep run, but the Hurricanes are walking into a matchup with an Oklahoma program that is entering another season with enormous expectations.
The preseason AP Poll has Miami No. 7 and Oklahoma No. 10, meaning our bracket has these two teams essentially flipping their national positioning by December.
That’s exactly why bracketology is fun.
The names may be familiar. The matchups are not.
And if this game happens on a campus site, the atmosphere would be ridiculous.
Biggest Game of the year: @ Notre Dame. This is the only “ranked” preseason team on the schedule, and it’s quite honestly one of the biggest games on the entire college football calendar. There’s a high likelihood both teams are in the CFP projections and Miami should be undefeated as they head into this one.
Biggest Game of the year: (Oklahoma): Obviously the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl is a monumental matchup. However, the week 2 visit to the Big House to play Michigan looms large. If they win that one, they get an easy game vs. New Mexico before back to back dates @ Georgia, and vs. Texas.
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Texas Tech
Welcome to the rivalry game nobody wants to play in December.
Texas Tech is our No. 11 seed, and the Red Raiders are one of the most intriguing teams in the entire field.
Texas, meanwhile, enters the season No. 5 nationally in the AP preseason poll and has legitimate national championship aspirations.
But here’s the problem:
If Texas lands in this position, the Longhorns have already had a season that fell short of expectations.
And suddenly, one bad afternoon against Texas Tech ends everything.
This is exactly what the expanded Playoff was built to create.
Biggest Game of the year (Texas): vs. Ohio State 9/12. As I mentioned for OSU, this game is monumental in the national landscape of college football. The winner, while not guaranteed, will have a great path into the CFP, even if they fall a time or two throughout the year. However, the loser will be walking a fine line the remainder of the season. Texas also has @ Tennessee, Oklahoma, home vs. Ole Miss, @ Missouri, @ LSU, and @ A&M on the schedule.
Biggest Game of the year (Texas Tech): vs. Houston 9/18. I get that the Big 12 is a football first conference, but this schedule is extremely weak. Their road games are Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. They get TCU, and Arizona at home. Tech is going to need play near perfect to make the CFP this season.
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
This is the sleeper.
Texas A&M enters the preseason ranked No. 8 nationally, while Ole Miss is No. 9.
In other words, we’re projecting two preseason top-10 teams to meet in the first round.
That is the beauty—and brutality—of the 12-team Playoff.
One of these teams could be sitting inside the top 10 all season, only to find itself hosting a playoff game against another top-10 caliber opponent with its season on the line.
That’s not an easy draw.
Biggest Game of the year (Texas A&M): vs. Texas 11/27. Yes, this is a rivalry, yes, they have other tough games throughout the year. However, the matchup with the Longhorns is one of the final opportunities to make a statement to the committee. Can they pull off a huge victory and force their way into the playoff?
Biggest Game of the year (Ole Miss): I wasn’t going to do it, but I truly think the biggest game is the homecoming of Lane Kiffin to Oxford on 9/19. It’s quite possibly the most hyped game in the country this season. They also get matchups with Missouri, @ Texas, vs. Georgia and @ Oklahoma, so there are plenty of opportunities.
Others Considered:
First 4 Out: BYU, LSU, USC, Alabama.
Group of 6 first 6 out: JMU, Navy, North Dakota State, San Diego State, USF, UNLV
QUARTERFINAL PICTURE
If I were picking right now:
No. 1 Ohio State vs. Miami (Fl)
No. 4 Notre Dame vs. Indiana
No. 3 Oregon vs. Texas Tech
No. 2 Georgia vs. Texas A&M
And suddenly, things get really serious.
Ohio State would have to deal with the defending national runners up.
Notre Dame could see Indiana in an elite matchup between two Indiana powers, one new and one old.
Oregon would get a Texas Tech team capable of making the Ducks sweat, especially as Hammond would presumably be fully healthy at QB by this point.
And Georgia-Texas A&M would be an SEC heavyweight fight with a trip to the national semifinal on the line, but also we could be seeing a seismic shift in the SEC if Georgia loses, A&M or others could be taking control of football’s most competitive conference.
There are no easy games anymore.
That’s the point.
THE SEMIFINALS
Our bracket sends Ohio State and Georgia to one side of the national championship equation, with Oregon and Notre Dame fighting on the other.
That would give us:
Orange Bowl
Ohio State vs. Georgia
Sugar Bowl
Oregon vs. Notre Dame
Ohio State-Georgia would have everything you’d want from a Playoff semifinal: elite talent, massive expectations and two programs that believe anything short of a championship is a failure.
Oregon-Notre Dame would be just as compelling. Two programs that have spent years knocking on the door of college football’s inner circle would have 60 minutes to finally kick it down.
THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Ohio State vs. Oregon
If we’re making the projection today, we’re going right back to the Big Ten. Yes, I’m predicting a fourth year in a row of no SEC teams winning the national title.
Ohio State vs. Oregon.
And yes, that would mean two of the teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the preseason AP Poll meeting for the national championship.
It would also give us the exact type of matchup the expanded CFP was designed to create: two elite teams surviving a 12-team gauntlet and meeting with everything on the line.
Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas. January 25, 2027.
For the first time, Las Vegas will host the College Football Playoff National Championship.
And our first projection has Ohio State getting there.
National Champion: Oregon
I think Dan Lanning and co. finally get over the hump.
Maybe that’s too chalky.
Maybe Georgia runs through the SEC and proves once again that nobody in the country can stop the Bulldogs.
Maybe Indiana’s championship defense becomes the story of the season.
That’s why we play the games.
But as of right now?
Oregon is my team to beat.
The Buckeyes sit at No. 1 in the preseason rankings. Oregon is right behind them. Georgia and Notre Dame round out our projected top four. And waiting underneath them is a group of teams that could completely blow this bracket apart.
The 2026 season hasn’t even kicked off yet.
Already, the road to Vegas looks absolutely loaded.
This is only the first bracket.
As the season unfolds, the Sansom Sports Media CFP Bracketology will be updated throughout the year. You’ll get brackets from multiple of us as Charlie and I are both going to be pushing out bracketology to give multiple vantage points.
Because in college football, nothing stays chalk for long.