The Xavier Musketeers released their non-conference schedule in full today. With that, I’ve seen some angst and concerns from fans about the number of buy games and overall schedule strength. Sansom Sports Media started as a bracketology account, and while we have grown to cover local teams at a more microscopic level, let’s examine X’s schedule through a bracketology lens. After all, what matters is getting to the big dance in March. I’m going to power rank all non-conference games below, starting with the least important, moving to the most important. With that being said, a loss in any of these “less important” games would immediately make it the most impactful game on the entire NC schedule.
Exhibitions:
No, Exhibitions do not matter. I mean, UC beat Michigan last year and missed the tournament. That’s not a dig at UC, but more just a general reminder.
That said, Xavier gets Dayton and Kent State for their 2 exhibitions. The Dayton Exhibition is slated for 10/7 and is part of the Care Source Invitational. The second game in that group features OSU and UC. It’s a very unique event as they’re hoping to play it outdoor at the Linder Family Tennis Center. If unable to play outdoors, they will move it to UD Arena. UD should be improved, and this is an amazing opportunity to see X for the first time this year. The latest I heard was that this would not be streamed. The second exhibition will be against Kent State at the Cintas Center on October 23. Kent State is typically a very solid team out of the MAC and will put up another solid test.
A Quick Numbers Note:
Yes, I throw rankings from Barttorvik.com into this. No, they are not perfect, and are extremely volatile. However, it’s the best way to give an objective look at where teams stand. For reference, he has X ranked at 56th. My first bracket is going to have X somewhere near 30 (however, that’s as useful as the preseason rankings). All of that to say: the numbers aren’t perfect, but it’s a good reference point.
Buy Games
12: Texas Southern
Texas Southern does not have a coach currently. This will be one of the worst teams in the country next year. X is 2-0 all time, with the last meeting being 11/4/24 and a 78-69 win in Cintas. They are projected at 342 per Torvik.
11: Mount St. Mary’s:
After last year’s 15-17 performance and a MAAC quarterfinal loss to Siena, The Mount is going to look completely different this year. They’re projected at 291st per Torvik.
10: Cleveland State
The Vikings went 11-22 last year and lost in the 2nd round of the Horizon Tournament last year. As is expected with all mid-majors, they will look much different this year. Former Bearcat Rayvon Griffith will be one of the most intriguing additions this offseason! They project as 277th per Torvik.
9: Purdue Fort Wayne
The Mastodons had a solid year last year in the Horizon League, going 17-15 overall. They lost to Green Bay in the 1st round of the Horizon League championship. The Mastodons return Deandre Craig Jr. who scored 14/3/3 last year and will be a Horizon League player of the year candidate this year. They project at 273rd per Torvik.
8: FIU
The Panthers went 15-17 last season and are now bringing in a proven winner from the JUCO ranks to take the reins. Joey Cantens has a career 120-40 record in 5 years, and has coached with Leonard Hamilton at Florida State, and was a part of Germany and Dominican Republic national team coaching staffs. This roster is brand new, as is expected with coaching turnover.They project as 250th nationally per Torvik.
7: Detroit Mercy
This is a really fun squad, and an extremely fun fanbase. However, they’re in the middle of controversy as their APR was not at benchmark. The Titans return key guys Ayden Carter and Tyler Apratt and will not be scared to walk into Cintas. They project at 234th nationally per Torvik.
6: Eastern Michigan
Last year, Xavier fans and a lot of the Big 12 enjoyed throwing jabs at Cincinnati after they lost to Eastern Michigan. That’s all fun and games… as long as when the Eagles show up to your arena, you beat them. EMU comes to Cintas with a new coach. Billy Donlon takes over the head coaching role after being one of the top assistants at Clemson. He has previously coached at Missouri, Kansas City, and Wright State (155-133 record). He will have his work cut out for him trying to get EMU back to where they want to be. They project at 192nd overall per Torvik.
Need to win 1 of these:
5: Mississippi State
The Bulldogs and Musketeers will play at the Greenbrier in West Virginia in another unique location. This year’s Bulldog team is highlighted by returner Josh Hubbard, but honestly, not much else. They brought in 6 portal additions, however, their class was ranked 14th in the SEC. If you like preseason metrics, Torvik has them as the 71st team in the country. This will likely end up as a Q2 game, but it’s one X really needs.
4: Iowa:
Iowa has significant continuity from last year’s squad who went to the Elite Eight. However, they did lose significant production, namely Bennett Stirtz. They added Andrew McKeever from Saint Mary’s, the 7’3″ big was a prized portal addition, and immediately makes the Hawkeye front court dangerous. They also brought in Ty’reek Coleman, a 6’2 guard from Illinois State. He averaged 10/3/2 as a freshman and shot 42% from deep. His development is crucial for this team. However, this is a game I expect X to win at home. This will likely be Q2. Torvik has Iowa as 42nd in his preseason rankings.
1-2 here is good:
3: Texas A&M
The Aggies are a team who surprised some last year, making the NCAA tournament and going 22-12 after changing coaches. Year 2 under Bucky McMillan expects to bring a high octane team who will score the ball well and play with size. An interesting storyline here is that Ruben Dominguez transferred to X from A&M, which will add an extra bit of motivation to both the coaching staff of A&M and to Ruben. A&M’s portal class was ranked 11th nationally and is headlined by the additions of PJ Haggerty (23/5/4 at KSU last year), Tyshawn Archie (14/2/3 at McNeese last year), Jalen Shelly (14/7/3 at LMU last year), and Jalen Reece (6/2/4 as a freshman last year). The Aggies will provide a tough test, however, this is a very winnable game. This will likely be a Q1 opportunity. Torvik has A&M as 48th in his preseason rankings.
2. Cincinnati
Not putting Crosstown at first overall isn’t a slight to the rivalry, it’s a tip of the cap to how good Virginia is going to be this year. However, this Cincinnati team is going to be very dangerous aswell. The Bearcats brought in 13 portal additions, good for 23rd in the nation per 247. I’ve had the ability to watch this Bearcats squad practice a couple of times, and their size and athleticism are much improved. Plus, this team plays with a flow that I didn’t ever see from the previous Bearcat teams. Coach Calhoun is very high on the Bearcats, and they are loaded with talent. Tylen Riley was the headliner, but this is a team who has 10 guys capable of playing solid minutes this year. They also received a boost with the same court case Filip is involved in, with MJ Collins Jr. coming over from Utah State as did Kolby King. We’ll have more on Crosstown as it gets close, but on the road, this is a Q1 game. Torvik has UC as 40th in his preseason rankings.
1: Virginia
Xavier will play Virginia on either Nov 25 or 27. This is part of the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. Virginia returns Thijs De Ridder who was a star and first team All-ACC last year, along with Sam Lewis, and Johann Grunloh. They also have Chance Mallory coming back for his sophomore year and he will look to step into a much bigger role. This roster also added 6 portal additions, ranking 83rd nationally per 247sports. If you’re a believer in early season metrics, Virginia is projected as #2 in the country per barttorvik.com. I’m not going to go that high on the Cavaliers, but this is a team who will be top-15 heading into their Thanksgiving week clash with the Musketeers. A win here would be likely Q1-A, which is the best win you can get, and a neutral site victory is like gold to the committee.
Is This a Good Schedule?
Every team and fanbase want to play as challenging of a slate as possible, however, the reality of the NCAA landscape is that you have to mix in buy games and high major opponents while giving yourself a chance to grow early in the year. With the transfer portal the way it is, most, if not all rosters are turning over multiple starting spots per season. Additionally, and much to the dismay of the fan, metrics play a large role in selecting the NCAA tournament field. One of the things that help steady metrics is to rack up wins against inferior opponents. However, you also have to win the top tier games.
The Bracketology Viewpoint:
If Xavier can go something like 10-2 in the non-conference, they’re set up extremely well to go 10-10 in the Big East (or a couple games better), and get into the NCAA tournament. However, if they drop to 8-4 and their only non-buy game win is Mississippi State, there will be cause for concern.
My initial thought on a potential quadrant breakdown:
Q1: 3 – Cincinnati, Virginia, Texas A&M
Q2: 2 – Iowa, Mississippi State
Q3: 0
Q4: 7
Xavier absolutely cannot afford a loss to a Q4 team. If they avoid that and grab the two Q2 games and one of the 3 Q1 games, they’d be at that 10-2 mark and in a great spot. In theory, they could go 0-3 in the Q1’s and be fine, however, that puts their back up against the wall heading into the Big East slate and they would likely need to win 13 games to make the dance.
Overall, I believe it is a good non-conference schedule from a bracketology view.
Now, from a fans standpoint:
Season Ticket Holders get a really solid home matchup with Iowa, outside of that, everything requires travel to see the Muskies play. The Dayton scrimmage will be in Mason, so that’s another fun matchup that fans will be able to watch, even if it’s an exhibition. Mississippi State is roughly a 5 hour drive away, but is accessible for many fans, however, it’s in the middle of nowhere, West Virginia and there’s not much else to do out there in November. Atlantis is an extremely fun destination, however, it requires a flight and it’s an expensive place to stay, limiting the ability for most Xavier fans to make the trip. The NC schedule is quite honestly a very rough slate for Season Ticket Holders and fans in Cincinnati.
The Big East Slate being what it is does significantly help decrease the complaints from most fans, but I don’t believe it’s unreasonable for fans to at least be somewhat upset about the way the NC schedule has played out, both this year and the past couple of seasons. However, all of that goes away if this team can find success and get back to the level of play that is the standard at Xavier.