This weekend, EYBL’s famous Peach Jam took place in Augusta, SC. Yes, it’s a staple of high school recruiting in college hoops. However, to me, some of the luster is gone. In previous years, Peach Jam content would swarm the timeline and be the highlight of the week. However, this week and same as last year’s Peach Jam, it just feels different. People are there and recruiting, but it’s not the world stopping event it used to be. Why is that? Many people have commented on X posts saying that high school recruiting is dead. Fundamentally, I disagree.
Why has high school recruiting died down?
In short: The Transfer Portal and NIL. Let’s dive into the pre and post-transfer portal Elite 8 rosters. I chose the Elite 8 as I feel that the Final Four, while everyone’s goal, is a bit restrictive and I wanted to give a better representation of the highly successful teams.
What you’ll see below is each team broken down by year with the # of high school recruits who remained on the roster from high school to the time of the elite 8, and the # of transfer portal additions who are on the roster. If you’re a scientific kind of person, my hypothesis is that recruiting and retaining high school recruits will correlate to winning in March. Let’s find out together! Reminder, this list includes all transfers, not just transfers who contributed significantly.
2025-26: Michigan
- Duke: 2 transfers
- UConn: 3 transfers
- Michigan: 6 transfers
- Tennessee: 5 transfers
- Iowa: 8 transfers
- Illinois: 5 transfers
- Arizona: 8 transfers
- Purdue: 3 transfers
Average – 5 transfers per team.
2024-25: Florida
- Duke: 4 transfers
- Alabama: 7 transfers
- Houston: 2 transfers
- Tennessee: 6 Transfers
- Auburn: 10 Transfers
- Michigan State: 2 Transfers
- Florida: 7 Transfers
- Texas Tech: 8 Transfers
Average – 5.75 transfers per team.
2023-24: UConn
- Uconn: 2 transfers
- Illinois: 6 transfers
- Purdue: 1 transfer
- Tennessee: 4 Transfers
- Duke: 2 transfers
- NC State: 9 Transfers
- Alabama: 6 transfers
- Clemson: 4 Transfers
Average – 4.3 transfers per team.
2022-23: UConn
- FAU: 5 Transfers
- Kansas State: 12 Transfers
- Miami (Fl): 3 Transfers
- Texas: 6 Transfers
- SDSU: 5 Transfers
- Creighton: 2 Transfers
- UConn: 4 Transfers
- Gonzaga: 3 Transfers
Average – 5 transfers per team.
2021-22: Kansas
- UNC: 3 Transfers
- Saint Peter’s: 2 Transfers
- Kansas: 4 Transfers
- Miami (Fl): 3 Transfers
- Houston: 3 Transfers
- Villanova: 0 Transfers
- Arkansas: 9 Transfers
- Duke: 1 transfer
Average – 3.1 transfers per team.
Skipping 2020-21 d/t COVID
2019-20 had No Tournament.
2018-19: Virginia
- Duke: 0 transfers
- Michigan State: 1 Transfer
- Auburn: 2 Transfers
- Kentucky: 1 Transfer
- Virginia: 1 Transfer
- Purdue: 1 Transfer
- Gonzaga: 4 Transfers
- Texas Tech: 4 Transfers
Average – 1.75 transfers per team.
2017-18: Villanova
- Villanova: 0 Transfers
- Texas Tech: 2 Transfers
- Kansas: 7 Transfers
- Duke: 0 Transfers
- Kansas State: 5 Transfers
- Loyola Chicago: 6 Transfers
- Florida State: 0 Transfers
- Michigan: 3 transfers
Average – 2.9 transfers per team.
To pull the averages only:
- 2017-18: 2.8
- 2018-19: 1.75
- 2021-22: 3.2
- 2022-23: 5
- 2023-24: 4.5
- 2024-25: 5.75
- 2025-26: 5
I want to add that several of these years were skewed with outliers who may have had 9/10 transfers, but it was not the norm (looking at you 2021-22 Arkansas and 2022-23 Kansas). If those outliers were removed those numbers would considerably shrink. Keep in mind that April 2021 saw the one time transfer without sitting rule implemented. April 2024 saw the NCAA approve no penalty for transferring as many times as they wanted to. When you look at the sharp increase in transfers from pre-Covid to now, those dates line up almost exactly.
Takeaways:
This data lines up with what I was expecting to see. Revisiting my hypothesis: recruiting and retaining high school recruits will correlate to winning in March. With an average between 4-5 transfers per Elite 8 teams, I would venture to say that this does show that, yes, transfers are more frequent on top teams. However, you are not winning your first 3 games in March with just 5 guys, so while high school recruiting is very much so less important now, getting guys that fit your system out of high school and keeping them on your roster for multiple years is vital to being a deep team in March.
The next time you see your team have a mass exodus of 10+ players and bring in 10+ guys, remember, while not impossible, that’s likely going to mean that your ceiling is the Sweet 16, unless you can catch lightning in a bottle like NC State in 2023-24, or Auburn in 2024-25.
So, is High School Recruiting Dead?
High School Recruiting is clearly not dead, however, it is becoming increasingly more difficult for high school guys to make a name for themselves. If I were to give any advice to recruits in today’s game, it’s to yes, look at money, but also look at playing time and development. If you have to do a year in a mid-major, but you can immediately play starting 5 level minutes, it’s significantly better than riding the bench at a p5 school who is going to overlook you in the portal for a more “proven” guy, though you were never given a shot.
Extra: Is College Basketball Dead?
The transfer portal didn’t kill college basketball, quite the opposite, it has increased variance and parity among the top tier of the sport. However, since 2022-23, we haven’t seen a non-power conference team make the Elite 8, indicating that what we all thought would happen is happening, the richest teams and leagues are taking the top talent and making it more difficult for teams to make deep runs in March. However, we still get great stories like Miami (OH) from last year showing a mid-major can still do it, their path just becomes more difficult.