Sansom Sports Media

Welcome out West!! From Arizona to Long Island, I’ve got you covered below! First, the true seed lines:

1. Arizona
2. Purdue
3. Gonzaga
4. Arkansas
5. Wisconsin
6. BYU
7. Miami (Florida)
8. Villanova
9. Utah State
10. Missouri
11. Texas
12. High Point
13. Hawaii
14. Kennesaw State
15. Queens
16. Long Island

Power Rankings:

1. Arizona – The Wildcats slid up to the 2nd overall seed after winning the Big 12 Championship! They like to get out and run, and they do so while taking care of the ball. On offense, they crash the glass hard, putting them top 10 in the nation. While they’re not an elite shooting team, they do a good job of getting to the free throw line. This team leans into their defense, holding opponents to a brutal 45% effective field goal % (3rd nationally). They also do a great job at keeping teams out of the paint, ranking 11th nationally, with an average 2 point shot distance of 7 feet. Overall, Arizona is an elite team, and the clear favorite to come out of this region.
2. Arkansas – I want to start with a disclaimer: I’ve been high on the makeup of this Arkansas team all year, so me having them this high shouldn’t come as a surprise. Though they’re a 4 seed, they come in having won 5 in a row and they won the SEC tournament! The Razorback play extremely fast and keep the ball secure, with the nations lowest turnover rate (12%). They’re also elite at getting clean looks, top 15 in offensive shot block %, and they shoot the three at a 39% rate, though, they don’t take many 3’s. The reason Arkansas is just a 4 seed this year is their defense, which is 48th nationally. They give up 54% of their shots from inside the arc (362st nationally), though their 3 point defense is elite, at 32%.on the year. They don’t force turnovers, and they have a tendency to foul teams at a high rate. If they’re going to push toward the top, they’re going to do it with their offense, which does give me concern about them going deep.
3. Purdue – The Boilermakers might make me regret this (having them 3 instead of 2). However, Purdue has lost 5 times at home this year, and while I get the Big Ten is elite, that just shouldn’t happen for a program of this caliber. Good news for them is that they don’t play at Mackey again this year. They are among the slowest teams in the country overall, however, they have the most efficient offense in the country. They shoot top 20 overall from both inside and outside the arc. They take exceptional care of the basketball, and grab 36% of their missed shots. They don’t however, draw many fouls. They have the best point guard in Big Ten history at distributing the ball, and overall they assist on 67% of their field goals. On defense, they do struggle at times, however, they’re top 40. They allow teams to shoot 52% from the field and 53% from inside the arc, both of which are sub-240 rankings in the nation. They do, however, play very well without fouling and they are top 25 in defensive rebounding. They will need to shore up their defense a bit if they’re goin to compete with the top of the region.
4. Gonzaga – The metric darlings, as I’ve seen people say about them pretty much every year. However, there’s something to be said for the level of play Mark Few’s teams constantly put up! On offense, the are currently 29th nationally, while the Gonzaga defense is currently top 10. On offense, they do very well at shooting inside the arc, however, they struggle from deep. They also struggle to draw fouls, but when they get to the free throw line, they are 274th nationally at converting at 70%. On defense, they are 9th nationally. They force turnovers at a 21% rate, and hold teams to 46% inside the arc and 31% outside. Honestly, their weakest point is fouling teams, but they’re still 82nd nationally there.
5. Wisconsin – The Badgers are a sneaky team who I think could get hot this year and make a run. Their offense is 11th in the country and they take great care of the ball (13% turnover rate). However, they struggle to. get to the free throw line, and they don’t rebound the ball well when they miss shots. They take 53% of their shots from deep, and when they go inside, they get close to the rim, really leaning into that analytical strength. On defense, they struggle a bit; forcing turnovers is a weakness, and they allow teams to shoot 52% from inside the arc. They’re average behind the arc, allowing teams to shoot 33%. If they’re going to win, it’s likely by outscoring opponents in high scoring games. The good thing for a neutral fan – this means the first round matchup with High Point will be crazy high scoring!
6. BYU – AJ Dybantsa. This team will go as far as the star freshman can take them. However, he’s not all they have. They play at a quick pace, and are happy to run. They don’t draw many fouls when on offense, but overall, there isn’t much of a weakness for this squad. However, they’re top 50 in just 1 category (2pt%). They will need their defense to step up and be better than they have this year. They struggle overall at letting opponents get open deep looks, and will need to clean that up a bit if they’re going to advance here. In good news, they do very well at not fouling teams on defense, which is significant, especially in March games.
7. Utah State – I thought the Aggies got the short end of the committee’s disdain for the MWC in general, leading to them being placed as a 9 seed. The good news for them, however, is that they were destined for the 8/9 game either way. First, I hope that, as it appears is the case, Calhoun has been able to keep the rumors out of the Aggie locker room and allow them to focus on this year. On offense, Utah State is 28th nationally, and on defense, they are 45th. They are elite inside the arc, and they do a great job at getting to the rim. However, they struggle to convert from the charity stripe, and they’re they get there a lot. They will need to clean that up and continue to take care of the ball at a good rate on offense to advance against Villanova. On defense, they give up a 32% offensive rebounding rate, and they foul at an extremely high rate. Finally, they defend the 3 relatively well, and are elite at 2 point defense.
8. Villanova – The Wildcats are extremely balanced (41st on offense, 35th on defense). They do shoot a lot of 3’s, hitting 35% of them; they also take great care of the ball and assist on 57% of their shots (72nd nationally). What they struggle with is getting to, and converting from the FT line. On defense, however, they do well at not fouling teams, but are middle of the road in opponent shooting. They do allow a high offensive rebounding rate, allowing teams to grab 32% of missed shots. Nova will likely look to get hot from deep if they want to advance in this one.
9. Miami (Fl) – I’ve been lower on the Hurricanes all season. With that being said, I’m sure that’s going to age well for me. The Hurricanes are top 40 on both offense and defense, however, they have a notable weakness on offense. They make their free throws at just 69%. While they don’t get there at an elite rate, they are there frequently. Their offense is a bit reliant on getting inside the arc, where they get to the rim and convert 57% from deep. They don’t take many three’s (332nd nationally in 3 point attempts). They do crash the offensive glass at a high rate. on defense, they play without fouling, they limit clean 3 point looks, and they are 21st nationally on the defensive glass.
10. Missouri – The Tigers getting a 10 and avoiding the First Four surprised me a bit, and honestly, I do get it after seeing the teams that ended up in Dayton. However, looking into this squad, they’re just so boom or bust. The Wins over Florida, Vandy, and Tennessee are great, but they also have lost to Notre Dame. They’re currently on a 3 game skid. They allow teams to shoot at an elite clip from deep (37%), and they are 185th in opponent effective field goal % with teams hitting 51%. They also give up a lot on the offensive glass, However, on offense, they do very well in several key categories. While they’re a bit sloppy with the ball, turning it over 18% of the time, they do very well at getting their shots close to the rim, and they convert 57% of the time inside the arc. They also do an excellent job at getting to the free throw line, however, once they’re there, they convert just 69% of their looks.
11. Texas – We just saw Texas find a way to win one of the ugliest electric games I’ve watched in March. However, they did just that. I have them as a 11, because what we saw from them in their previous matchup wasn’t necessarily inspiring, but they were able to hold a potent NC State offense to just 67 points. Survive and advance, baby!
12. High Point – The Panthers absolutely love to score! They take elite care of the ball, and they turn teams over at a top 10 national rate. They are also on a 14 game winning streak. They look to run, and they do it exceptionally well. Shooting just 34% from deep on the year, that isn’t a strength, but the Panthers are dangerous. They convert 57% of their 2 point attempts and steal the ball on 7% of defensive possessions. They are 4th in the nation in that area. They need to speed up Wisconsin and force turnovers to have a chance!
13. Hawaii – the Rainbow Warriors are a really fun team to watch over. I know a lot of you likely haven’t seen them play, but the Big West is really fun to watch and overall a great hoops league. Hawaii does very well at speeding teams up on defense, however, they don’t do very well at forcing turnovers. They hold opponents to just 1 shot, ranking 10th in the nation in defensive rebounding. They also hold teams to just 31% from deep, and 47% from inside the arc, both marks are top 30 nationally. Their offense, however, is a completely different story. They are 300th nationally in shooting from deep, and turn it over 19% of the time. Playing an aggressive Arkansas team in round one means they’re going to struggle to keep up. I would’ve liked their chances against some teams, but I think Arkansas wins big here.
14. Queens – Welcome to the tournament for the first time, Royals! It’s a pleasure to have you. They play a relatively fast pace, and are a top 80 offense, however, their defense is 320th nationally. Expect to see Purdue play their style and take care of business. If this game is close, however, it’s because Purdue’s having an off night and has been sped up.
15. Kennesaw State – The Owls are FAST. However, they’re extremely inefficient! They get a ton of their shots blocked, and a lot of their possessions end up in turnovers. They do get to the FT line at a high clip though, and that is the key to them staying in their opening game. The Owls are poor on defense as well, fouling opponents at the 358th rate in the country. That’s going to be a recipe for disaster if they try to pull an upset off.
16. LIU – Fins Up!! The Sharks will try to pull off the impossible.Their offense is just not going to be good enough to match Arizona. I love trying to find an upset angle, but this just isn’t it. Their defense Is solid, but they don’t shoot many 3’s on offense, and when they’re shooting inside, they hit just 53%.

Upset Picks:

I really like the matchup for Missouri over Miami

I also like the High Point vs. Wisconsin as a potential upset. However, that’s more of a flier and not necessarily a straight projection. I think the first round is relatively chalky, however, there could be some real excitement in some of these 2nd round and sweet 16 matchups!

Sweet 16 Prediction:

While yes, I understand it’s chalky, I like Arizona and Arkansas to advance, as well as Gonzaga and Purdue. I think the Sweet 16 in San Jose will be one of the better sets of games we’ve seen in a long time!

Midwest Preview

East Preview

South Preview will be published before games tomorrow!