This year’s tournament tracker is live!
Last night kicked March Madness off with an absolute bang! Howard vs. UMBC and Texas vs. NC State were both really fun games to watch. I was courtside for both matchups. Quick recap is available here:
Howard took down UMBC in a thrilling matchup. I will never get tired of watching two 16-seeds duel in March with everything on the line — it’s pure cinema. Player of the game in the first matchup goes to Oso Okojie for his electric performance!
Texas, despite jumping out to a commanding first half lead, closed the first half with a 4-minute scoring drought allowing NC State to go on a 6-0 run to end the half. The game was tied 30-29 at the half. NC State took a lead with ~ 17 minutes to go in the second half off of a Paul Mcneil deep ball! After that, the game really slowed down and it was a lot more back and forth. Chendall Weaver’s offensive motor needs to be commended, his second half offensive rebounding efforts helped keep Texas ahead through the middle of the 2nd half. NC State’s comeback and the back and forth battle made for an instant classic! Texas’s Tramon Mark hit a game winning jumper to send the Longhorns home victors!
Player of the Game:
Texas: Tramon Mark. ONIONS!!!! He had multiple clutch buckets to close out this one, including the game winner! Mark finished with 17/5/2 and just 1 turnover. He hit the biggest bucket of the night, sending his team to the next round.
Wednesday Night:
We get the game everyone has been looking forward to since Sunday, but first, a really exciting 16-seed duel.
Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh — 6:40 PM on truTV
This one projects as a toss-up with plenty of scoring. Lehigh was one of the lower-rated analytical teams to make the field this year out of the Patriot League. They struggle offensively and are only marginally better on defense, playing at a slower pace. Their weaknesses include giving up offensive rebounds and failing to rebound their own misses. On the bright side, they shoot the three well at 37%, though they do turn it over on 18% of their possessions. Expect them to hunt open threes and make Prairie View A&M pay. Nasir Whitlock leads the team in scoring with 21 points per game and in assists with 3 per night, while Frank Alvey leads the team on the glass with 7 rebounds per game.
Prairie View A&M has one of the worst offensive efficiencies in the field of 68, ranking 310th nationally. Their saving grace is their ability to get to — and convert from — the free throw line at a high rate, which will be critical if they want to pull the upset. They play at a lightning-fast pace and take decent care of the ball (16% turnover rate). Defensively, they excel at forcing turnovers, which lines up perfectly against a Lehigh team that is loose with the ball. However, they do surrender offensive rebounds and foul at a high rate. The Panthers are led by Dontae Horne, who pours in 20 points and 2 steals per game. Cory Wells anchors the glass with 7 rebounds per night, while both Horne and Lance Williams share ball-distribution duties with 3 assists each.
I’m taking Lehigh in this one because of their three-point shooting. That said, if Prairie View A&M can push the pace, they absolutely have a shot. Either way, this should be a great one.
SMU vs. Miami (OH) — The Main Event
This is honestly one of the most anticipated games of the first round. Finally, we get to see if Miami can hang with power-conference competition. After a 31-1 regular season with no Quadrant 1 matchups, the entire country is doubting them — but I think we’re in for a really fun game. If SMU is fully healthy, I think they pull this out, though I do have genuine concerns about their health. All signs point to BJ Edwards being available, which gives the Mustangs one of their key contributors back. The bigger question is how many minutes he can log. KenPom projects SMU to win by 7.
The Mustangs are a very strong offensive team (26th nationally) but struggle on defense. Offensively, they don’t draw fouls at a high rate, but they shoot the three well and are efficient inside the arc. On the offensive glass, they pull down 35% of their own misses — top 40 nationally. Defensively, there isn’t much to write home about. They struggle on the defensive glass (32% defensive rebounding rate), rank 174th in three-point defense and 198th in two-point defense. Tonight, they will live and die by their offense. SMU is led by Boopie Miller with 19 points per game, while Edwards adds 13. Keep a close eye on Samet Yigitoglu — at 7’2″, he has a massive size advantage over anyone Miami can throw at him, and he averages 8 rebounds and a block per game. Expect him to be a factor.
The RedHawks are one of, if not the, most clutch teams in the country this season, executing in late-game situations time and time again to get to 31-1. Offensively, they are the sixth-most efficient shooting team in the country, converting 62% of their two-point attempts and shooting 38% from three. Like SMU, they will lean heavily on their offense tonight. Defensively, Miami’s standout trait is rebounding — they allow offensive rebounds on just 28% of opponent shot attempts (71st nationally) — and they do a strong job of drawing fouls while staying out of foul trouble themselves. If the RedHawks are going to win, it will come from limiting SMU’s rebounding size advantage and getting hot from deep. Miami is balanced offensively, with six players scoring in double figures, led by Peter Suder at 15 points per game. Eian Elmer leads the team in rebounding at 6’6″, while Antwone Woolfolk adds 6 boards per night in the paint. Star freshman Luke Skaljac runs the offense with 4.7 assists per game.
Overall, this game is going to be electric. SMU’s size may ultimately be too much for Miami to overcome, but there is a very real chance we get an offensive shootout between these two teams.
One more thing: even if Miami loses tonight, they deserved their spot in the NCAA Tournament. No debate.
Buckle up for yet another great night of basketball before we hit the best two days on the college hoops calendar!
