March is officially here! Today, the hoops world turns its attention to UD Arena, home of the Dayton Flyers. I’ll be live from the arena for both matchups tonight!
Before I dive too much into the games, I wanted to take a moment and just say thank you to everyone! I recieved countless DM’s/texts/comments yesterday and I tried to get to everyone, but in case I missed you, please know I’m very grateful for your support! Becoming a top 2 bracketologist just proves how far I’ve come, and what lies ahead! With that…. March!
Game Previews:
I’m going to keep these relatively short and give a prediction for each one.
UMBC and Howard will start things off at 6:40 on truTV! This game figures to be a bit of a rock fight, but it also should be a toss-up! kenpom.com has this as a slight lean towards UMBC, as does Vegas.
UMBC plays a very slow brand of basketball, and is a bit reliant on individual playmaking as their assist numbers are low. They do, however, shoot the ball fairly well from 3 (36%), and they take care of business at the free throw line (76%). They do not rebound their missed shots well at all, coming in at 340th in the nation. On defense, they don’t force many turnovers, but they crash the defensive glass well and excel at not fouling (8th in the country).
Howard, meanwhile, likes to play more up-tempo, however, that leads them to be a bit reckless with the basketball, and a turnover rate of 19.8% (343rd nationally). They also get a lot of their shots blocked and don’t shoot well at all inside the arc (49%). On Defense, they excel, forcing turnovers frequently, and defending the three point arc at the 18th best rate nationally. They do, however, foul a lot and struggle on the defensive glass.
This matchup is likely won at the free throw line, expect a great first matchup in March!
NC State vs. Texas, 9:15 (30 minutes after game 1), truTV! This one should feature a more free flowing pace and a bit of a hostile environment for one coach!
366 days ago, Sean Miller led the Xavier Musketeers in what was the loudest environment I’ve personally seen, especially at a neutral site.
From Sean: “I don’t know if I’ve ever experienced a better moment in sports than I felt tonight. Hard to describe, it was magical. It’s a reminder why you want to be a coach.”
Sean then proceeded to bolt for Texas presumably while still “coaching” Xavier. That has led to extreme anger from a certain fanbase within driving distance of this matchup. The tweet below was from 9 days after Xavier beat Texas in the aforementioned game. Tonight, Sean and Texas return. I also expect there to be a relatively large Xavier contingent on hand to make some noise.
The actual game is a toss-up. kenpom.com has it as a 49% chance for Texas to win, and a projected NC State 83-82 victory.
Texas: The Longhorns really struggle to force turnovers, however, they take great care of the ball. On offense, they get to the free throw line a ton, 4th highest rate in the nation, nad they hit 75% of them once they’re there. They don’t take a lot of 3’s, and when they do shoot outside, they’re hitting 35%. The Longhorns will look to slow the game down and grind it out compared to what NC STate will want to do. On defense, Texas fouls teams a ton, and gives up 36% from deep, good for 299th nationally. They don’t force many turnovers as I mentioned, and they don’t block many shots. To win this one, they will need to slow the game down and defend the deep ball better than they have shown capable of.
NC State: This team is clearly the most talented of the 11 seeds, and many Wolfpack fans are upset they got a 11. I projected them as a 11, however, they are just 2-7 in their last 9, and while not an official stat in the selection process, likely left a bad taste in the committee’s mouth. On offense, they are top 20 overall. They shoot the ball exceptionally well from deep (39%), and they have the 9th lowest turnover rate in the country. They do not grab many offensive rebounds, but other than that, they are solid all around! On defense, they are a bit porous, giving up 36% from deep, and 53% from inside the arc. They also foul teams a lot (226th nationally).
Expect a lot of free throws in this one, but I think NC State’s three point shooting is too good to let them fall here.
Night one of March Madness should be electric! I’ll have you covered court side from UD Arena!
