All Roads Lead to Chicago: A Complete Midwest Region Breakdown

Welcome to the Midwest, where all roads lead to Chicago! Locally, this region is absolutely loaded with local teams, and honestly, it’s the region I think it most likely to see a 3 or 4 seed go to the final four! Here’s how the bracket breaks down:

Michigan
Iowa State
Virginia
Alabama
Texas Tech
Tennessee
Kentucky
Georgia
Saint Louis
Santa Clara
Miami University/SMU
Akron
Hofstra
Wright State
Tennessee State
UMBC/Howard

We get 2 play-in games in the midwest region this year! UMBC and Howard should be an absolutely awesome game, and SMU/Miami will feature very little defense and a ton of three point shooting with some elite guard play. All eyes will turn towards seeing if BJ Edwards is healthy or not.

Power Ranking these 18 teams:

Credit: Michigan Photography

Michigan – Consistency throughout the year is of course going to get the Wolverines here. Dusty May and co. play an extremely uptempo offense and shoot the ball very well, especially inside the arc (61%) with Mara, Lendeborg, and Johnson. On defense, they are the best team in the country in effective field goal %, defending both inside and outside the arc. Michigan does a great job at distributing the ball, ranking towards the top in the country at assists per field goals made on both offense and defense.
Iowa State – The Cyclones play an extremely aggressive defense, ranking 4th in the country overall on defense, and 4th in turnover %, forcing a turnover 22% of the time. They also do very well at forcing live ball turnovers with a steal % of 9.2%. Of note, they do not shoot the free throw well, at just 67%. Other than that, the Cyclone offense does extremely well; they shoot 39% from deep, and are a bit less efficient from inside the arc, but they remain top 50.
Virginia – The Cavaliers are the polar opposite from a pace stance of the other teams in the top of this region, with the 271st pace in the nation. Their strength is defense, holding teams to 45% from inside the arc, they block 17.5% of shots, and hold have the 5th rated defensive effective field goal % in the country. Virginia does an excellent job at distributing the ball on offense, and they grab offensive boards on 38% of missed shots. If they can impose their tempo on other teams, they have a real shot to win multiple games.
Alabama – The Tide are the 4th fastest team in the country. Despite playing extremely fast, they are 4th in the country at turnover %. On defense, they don’t produce turnovers much at all (362nd nationally). Alabama is going to throw up 3’s on 54% of their shot attempts, and hit 36% of those shots. On defense, they give 34% from deep, and they allow offensive rebounds on 33% of missed opponent shots. If a team is going to beat Alabama, it’s likely because they go cold from deep, and the other team is able to win the second chance battle. Note, Aden Holloway has been removed from the team for a legal matter and there is no clear answer as to a timeline. I am proceeding as if he is out, and I bumped them down for that.
Tennessee – I talked with a Tennessee fan the other day, who told me that they have a tendency to make other teams guards look like Michael Jordan. That really stuck with me, especially seeing the matchup that Tennessee drew here. Either SMU or Miami University will come in with great guard play looking to make an impact. Tennessee, however, does an excellent job on the offensive glass, boasting a 45% rebounding rate which is best in the country. However, they do have some ball security issues and they don’t shoot it well, especially from the charity stripe. In usual Rick Barnes fashion, the Volunteers excel on defense where they are 15th in the country. Their strength is running teams off the 3 point line, and holding teams to tough shots. They will have to rely on their defense throughout the tournament.
Texas Tech – JT Toppin being out dropped Texas to my #6 overall team, combine that with Christian Anderson potentially still being injured and i’m not sure I dropped them enough, but alas, here we are! The Red Raiders have an elite offense, taking 48% of their shots from deep, and converting at a ridiculous 39% rate. With their tendency to shoot from beyond the arc, they don’t draw many fouls. They do play. bit slower pace, and are coming in off of 3 straight losses. The Raiders will look to lean on that high powered offense against an Akron team that can cause some chaos.
Kentucky – What a wild ride it’s been for Kentucky fans. Since beating Vanderbilt on 2/28, the Wildcats are just 2-3 and just have wins over LSU and Missouri to show for it. This team needs to get it together, quickly, because Santa Clara is no pushover and I expect them to come ready to play. The Wildcats lean on their top 30 defense to do most of the heavy lifting, especially when it comes to running teams off the 3 point line (allowing just 32% from deep). They don’t force many turnovers, and they have a tendency to allow some offensive rebounds, but a large part of that is due to their rim protection (they block shots at a 12.3% rate, good for 44th nationally). On offense, UK doesn’t do much at an exceptional level, but they do a lot of things well, including taking care of the ball and crashing the offensive glass. They aren’t a great 3 point shooting team, so will need to penetrate against some stingy defenses they will face.
Georgia – The Bulldogs like to run, and they do it well, coming in at the 16th fastest team in the country. They do well on offense, but really struggle on defense. While they like to shoot the 3, they aren’t particularly great at it, coming in at 170th nationally. However, they take great care of the ball, shoot well inside the arc, and crash the offensive glass well. On defense, as I mentioned they are suspect, giving up a lot of 3 point attempts, and opponents are hitting 34% of their outside shots. Georgia excels, however, at blocking shots and creating transition buckets via the steal on defense.
Santa Clara – The Broncos rely heavily on their 23rd ranked offense to help keep their 82nd ranked defense from killing them. They force a lot of turnovers on defense, however, they foul a lot, give up a ton of offensive rebounds, and allow teams to get to and convert a lot at the rim. On offense, they shoot the ball well and grab 37% of their missed shots. However, they are among the nations worst at getting to the free throw line. To win a game vs. UK, they will need to get to and convert at the rim a ton.
SMU – If healthy, SMU is arguably 7th on this list. Without BJ Edwards, they’re arguably 12th. They play at a relatively fast pace overall (115th nationally), but not the fastest in the region. They shoot the ball extremely well from 3 (24th nationally), and they do well from 2 (56%). They are amongst the worst in the country at getting to the free throw line, and on defense, they struggle a bit. They give up 52% from inside the arc, and 34% from deep on defense. If they’re healthy, the matchup with Miami will be awesome!
Saint Louis – The Billikens could absolutely be higher on this list, however, this region is extremely deep! They shoot the ball extremely well overall (2nd from deep, 15th from 2 nationally). However, they turn the ball over a lot, and don’t get to the free throw line often. They’re extremely reliant on the 3 point shot, and will need that to fall if they have any shot of beating UGA. On defense, they do well defending the 2 and 3 point shot (8th and 5th nationally). They also rebound the ball well on defense. They do have a tendency to foul, and against highly athletic teams, that could become a significant issue.
Miami University – I’ll have a more indepth preview of Miami before the game on Wednesday. However, on offense, they are fast paced, and shoot a lot of 3’s. They convert from deep at 38%, however, their 62% rate from inside the arc is 2nd in the nation. That brings their effective field goal % to 6th in the country. When they do miss, they do not get many offensive rebounds. On defense, however, they hold teams to 33%, which is 124th nationally, and they give up 52% from inside the arc, 176th in the nation. In short, Miami plays fast, shoots a ton, and allows teams to do the same. 31-1 has finally gotten their opportunity to prove it!
Akron – Two-bid MAC is awesome! The Zips play an extremely fast tempo, at the 32nd tempo in the nation. On offense, they shoot a ton of 3’s, and convert at an elite clip (39%). they also convert on 59% of 2 point shots. On defense however, they allow 35% from deep, while holding teams to 49% from inside the arc. A relative weakness for Akron is defensive rebounding, going up a 30% offensive rebounding rate. If they get hot from 3, there’s absolutely an opportunity they pull an upset!
Hofstra – The Pride are a slow, grind it out type of team. They shoot 37% from deep, and overall, they defend both the 2 and 3 point shot well. They have a tendency to get their shots blocked at a high rate and they don’t shoot many free throws. In one of the the stats I really enjoy eyeballing, Hofstra’s 2 point shot attempts average a terrible 7.2 feet from the rim, good for 340th in the country.
Wright State – I debated putting the Raiders ahead of Hofstra, but I decided against it. They shoot the ball well overall, with the 59th effective field goal % in the country. They don’t play at a fast tempo. but I’ve seen them play in-person multiple times, and they can play different styles and still impose their will. They do well on the offensive glass, and they shoot well from beyond the arc. They struggle a bit more on defense though, giving up 53% from inside the arc; they allow teams to shoot a lot from deep, but the opponents convert just 34% of the time.
Tennessee State – The Tigers play at a top 40 rate in the country, however, they don’t shoot well at all (effective field goal % of 50.1%). They don’t take many 3 point attempts at all, and they don’t assist on many of their field goal attempts. Overall, their ability to turn some teams over while pushing the pace and taking care of the ball keeps them in games.
Howard – I’ll have a more ind-depth look at Howard shortly before the Dayton games. Overall, the Bison has the nation 8th longest winning streak in the nation at 8 games! They turn the ball over 20% of the time, however, they force turnovers 21% of the time. On offense, they shoot just 49% from inside the arc, and 35% from deep. Their strengths are all on the defensive side, where they are a top 30 defensive in shooting the ball, including an elite 3 point defense (18th nationally). They force steals at a top 20 national rate (12%). They do allow teams to shoot a lot of three point attempts, but they tend to force a lot of hard shots.
UMBC – I’ll have a full more detailed preview of the matchup with Howard, but UMBC does very poorly at rebounding on offense, but doesn’t give up many offensive rebounds on defense. They don’t force turnovers well, nor do they block many shots. They do have the 2nd longest win streak in the country at 12 games!

My prediction for the Sweet 16:

I’ll be at the United Center for the entirety of the 2nd weekend! Here are the matchups I’m projecting to see:

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