The work is almost done, but the committee has a massive headache waiting for them today. We have five games left on the slate, each carrying major implications for seed lines and bubble survival. Here’s a look at the key matchups and the lingering questions I’m tracking as we head into the final hours of the 2026 season.
Of note, this is my current seed list, and I don’t expect to see much movement here. I’ll take one or two more passes before building the bracket!
First, the 5 games!
Penn and Yale – Tipped at noon. Penn – 13, Yale 12
HALFTIME SCORE: Penn 41, Yale 39
1:00 Tip-offs
Dayton vs. VCU – this is the biggest game today in my opinion. The winner gets the AQ, but if the loser is Dayton, they’re out. If it’s VCU, A 3-bid A-10 is technically possible. My thoughts are that they would put VCU out and Dayton in.
Vanderbilt and Arkansas – Vandy will not be worse than a 4. Feels like they are locked into there. If Arkansas wins, there’s a shot they end up on the 4 if the committee is paying attention today (big if there).
Wichita State and USF – USF would be a 11 most likely. Wichita would be a 12/13. 3:15 ESPN
Purdue and Michigan close the year out with the Big 10 title! A Michigan win leaves them clearly as 2 overall. A Purdue win could theoretically push them to the 2 line.
At-large spots I’m still unsure on:
- Nebraska vs. Virginia – Who gets the final 3 seed? Could Gonzaga be a surprise omission and move to the 4?
- Texas Tech vs. SJU vs. Arkansas – All feel like 5’s, however, the ordering could change.
- Louisville’s spot – do they fall down to the 7 similar to last year’s surprise?
- Saint Marys, Utah State, Clemson, UCLA – these 4 all have different strengths, but are very similar overall. Tough to currently place them in the field
- UCF vs. Texas A&M vs. Iowa – one of these has to be a 10, the other two are 9’s. I’m still reviewing where I think they should land.
- What does the committee do to Miami University? I 31-1 has to be respected, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they are in Dayton.
- Does the committee keep the typical 2 wins above .500 criteria, or do they put Auburn in the field? Is there a surprise inclusion we’re not considering?
The AQ’s
This is one of the toughest years I can remember along the AQ lines.
- High Point vs. UNI is tough, assuming a Yale win
- Kennesaw State vs. Tennessee State for the final 14
- Siena vs. Queens vs. Howard for the final 15
- Which of the 16’s go to Dayton?
This year has been one of the most chaotic years I can remember. I appreciate all of you following along. Sansom Sports Media will continue growing and I’ll be on site for the first four games, and then the Sweet 16/Elite 8 in Chicago!
