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Wednesday will start the SEC Tournament! The clear favorite is Florida, who comes in as a 1 seed. Alabama, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt are joining the Gators with the double bye. The single byes got a little chaotic with tie breakers! Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas A&M landed there. Opening the tournament, we have Kentucky vs. LSU, Auburn vs. Mississippi State, Texas vs. Ole Miss, and Oklahoma vs. South Carolina. Several of these guys are in must-win situations in the first round (Auburn, Texas and Oklahoma).

The 2026 SEC Tournament Contenders

Florida – They’re playing like the best team in the country, and the metrics back that up. They have the best offense by a wide margin in the SEC. They also play at a ridiculously fast tempo, leading to extra buckets. The front-court is dominant, and the guards have come around this year to make it almost impossible to beat UF without a perfect game. If they’re on, this tournament is theirs. I spent a lot of time talking about the Gator defense, however, their defense is also the best in the conference, by a monumental margin. Over the last month of the year, this team is playing on the same level as Michigan and Duke at the top of the conference per BartTorvik.com.

Alabama – Alabama’s offense is high octane, and per usual, heavily dependent on the 3. They shoot it at a 36% clip from deep, and play the fastest offense in the league. From a defensive standpoint, the Tide are holding teams to low shooting percentages inside the arc, however, the 3 point defense for the tide is sub-par, but not horrible. Alabama does not turn the ball over on offense, and they are among the bottom of the conference at turning teams over on defense.

Arkansas – Coach Cal and co. have been awesome to watch this year. Much of that is due to star freshman Darius Acuff Jr. The Razorbacks do very well shooting the ball, however, they struggle a bit at getting to the free throw line, and offensive rebounding. On defense, the Razorbacks hold their own, despite allowing teams to shoot 54% from the field in SEC play. However, they block a ton of shots (13.7% of opponent shots get blocked). Arkansas is another team who plays at a lightning fast pace.

Vanderbilt – The Commodores have been one of the best stories of the year in the league, with a 24-7 record, including a 11-7 SEC slate. They also like to play quickly, but are a step behind the other teams I’ve mentioned thus far. On offense, the ‘Dores shoot from the charity stripe at an elite level, other than that, there isn’t much that stands out for Vanderbilt. On defense, they do force a lot of turnovers, and block a lot of shots. They do, however, give up a lot of free throws, and they aren’t a good defensive team.

Tennessee – The Volunteers are currently facing some concerns surrounding injuries. Ament, the star freshman was out to end the year. I’m very curious to see how he does when games start. Amari Evans has also been injured, His injury came in the final minutes vs. Vanderbilt. I do expect to see both play this week. On the year, Tennessee’s offense is a bit of a liability, with turnovers being a significant problem, and they’ve shot poorly from the charity stripe, as well as inside the arc. The slow tempo they play with means they need to be more efficient in these single elimination games to end the year. On defense, the Volunteers are the same Rick Barnes team we’re used to seeing, they’re clearly the 2nd best defense in the conference. While they don’t force a ton of turnovers, the turnovers they do force are typically steals (where they lead the conference), and that has to be something they use to their advantage on the offensive side of the ball.

Tournament Teams Who Could Make a Run

Missouri – The Tigers are a rollercoaster, and their 20-11 (10-8) record shows that. They have the capabilities to pull off a huge run and win multiple games (they have wins over Vanderbilt, Florida, and Tennessee), however, they haven’t been able to pick up big wins outside of the confines of their home court in Columbia. During SEC play, they relied on their defense to create offense, and they played at an extremely slow pace. The Tigers struggle with ball security, ranking as the worst team in the SEC at offensive turnover percentage. They do really well at getting to the FT line, however, their 69% mark from there leaves a lot to be desired. Missouri will look to push people inside the arc and lean into their strengths of forcing tough 2’s.

Georgia – The Bulldogs went 22-9 in the regular season and are a part of the mess of teams at 10-8. During SEC play, they shot the 3 at a 36.8% rate, one of the best in the conference. However, what they did poorly on offense was get to the FT line. They don’t mind to play fast, but aren’t going to look to run like Florida/Alabama. On Defense, the Bulldogs block a ton of shots and don’t foul much at all, which is a lethal combo. They do well at turning teams over, forcing a turnover 16.1% of the time. UGA is fighting for seeding, and will look to solidify their defense just a bit as we move into the big dance!

Texas A&M – The Aggies offense is middle of the road, however, Bucky Ball (A&Ms first year HC – Bucky McMillan) has brought some elite defense (third in the conference) to College Station. The Aggies like to play a bit on the faster side of things, and take great care of the ball, turning it over just 13.4% of the time in conference play. On Defense, they force a lot of turnovers, and defend the 3 ball extremely well. That’s a recipe for an upset in the SEC if I’ve ever seen one! Teams should beware of the Aggies!

Kentucky – What a rollercoaster this year has been in Lexington! The Wildcats have been a very poor offense in SEC play, but a solid defense. While they are clearly dancing, they still have a relatively wide range of seed possibilities. Kentucky’s defensive strength is defending inside the arc, and a relatively high block rate in conference play. On offense, they don’t do much well, but they do rebound their misses at a high rate and get to the FT line a lot.

SEC Teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble

Texas – One win and they’ll feel pretty good about getting in. 2 wins and they’re practically locked in. A loss to Ole Miss to open the tournament would be catastrophic. The Longhorns had a shot to lock things up last week by beating Oklahoma, however, that didn’t happen. On offense, Texas has been solid across the board in SEC play, but they thrive in getting to and converting at the free throw line. This Texas team struggles on defense, especially at defending without fouling, and defending the 3 point shot. The Longhorns will need to be more disciplined to have a chance to pick some wins up.

Auburn – The Tigers have to have two wins to have any shot. Without 2 wins, they will be one game over .500 on the year, and despite their schedule, that’s not getting into the tournament. Auburn is extremely talented on offense, especially at getting to the FT line, and they convert at a solid rate when they get there. They do not shoot the ball well from deep and are average inside the arc. They will need a friendly whistle to have a chance to pull off some wins. They have also been playing as the worst defense in the conference since SEC play started. They give up a ton of 3’s, and allow teams to score at will. Their strength is turning teams over and they need to create some easy buckets out of those turnovers.

Oklahoma – The Sooners are bubble-adjacent right now. They need a couple wins, and an unprecedented consideration from the committee to actually value all of the results from the conference tournament, especially in the SEC. The Sooners have not played well in SEC play on defense, coming in at the bottom of the SEC. However, they do count defending the 3 point line as a relative strength. On offense, the Sooners are the best 3 point shooting team in SEC play at 38.7%. They will need to catch fire and lean on their experience to try and make a run here.

The Field

These teams will not be moving into the field unless they win the entire thing.

Mississippi State – Josh Hubbard could cause some chaos, but this team has been among the worst in both offense and defense since SEC play started. Their strength is defending without fouling and limiting opponents to 1 shot.

South Carolina – This offense is horrible, dead last by a wide margin per KenPom.com in conference play. They shoot their free throws well but don’t do much else well. On defense, they defend without fouling and hold opponents to just 32.7% from deep. Outside of that, they give up a lot of points.

Ole Miss – What a disappointing year for the Rebs. They had tournament aspirations in the preseason, but their offense has let them down in a big way. They are among the worst in the conference at everything on offense, except for turning the ball over and shooting from the FT line (though they don’t get there often). On defense, they are what I would call “average”, however, they do foul a lot, which puts them at a significant disadvantage. Their biggest strength is turning teams over, especially live ball steals. If they can do that, they can put some significant pressure on teams.

LSU – This season is almost over, thankfully for Tiger fans. Unfortunately, this year it just wasn’t meant to be. Their offense is slow and inefficient, and they give up a ton of looks from deep.

Prediction: Who Wins in Nashville?