The 2026 Big 12 Tournament will get going from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO Wednesday! We will have 4 matchups to get the tournament started, with 2 teams needing a win to have any at-large hopes. Those teams are: Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State. A win keeps them “alive”, while a loss will be the end of the road. Both would need multiple wins to have any hope at advancing. The second round will see the action really heat up, with Iowa State, UCF, West Virginia, and TCU all playing. WVU will need a win to stay alive at all. Day 3 (Thursday) will see the top dogs take the court with Texas Tech, Arizona, Houston, and Kansas tipping off.
Of course, the top four get a massive leg up with the double bye, however, this tournament should bring some of the best matchups of the year. I’ve divided them up into different categories, based off of their positioning on the bracket, and then pulled a couple of teams who I think can make a run, finally, the teams I expect to lose rather quickly.
Top Seeds
Arizona – They’re the 1 seed for a reason. Overall, they ended up at 29-2 and are locked into a 1 seed. Their pace and efficiency make it almost impossible to bet against at this point. The biggest thing for Arizona is to ensure they stay healthy moving to the Big Dance next week! However, you already know the Wildcats are looking to cut down some nets.
Houston – Kelvin Sampson’s squads constantly improve down the stretch run of the year, and this year has been no different. While writing this piece, I was shocked to see Houston’s offense is the best in the conference from an efficiency standpoint per KenPom. Houston also does an extremely good job on the defensive side of the ball, however, they are foul prone, sending teams to the free throw line at the highest rate in the conference. If they’re going to push Arizona, they need to play physical without fouling.
Kansas – The Jayhawks ended the year in a 3 way tie at 12-6 in Big 12 play. However, this entire year has been a question mark with health. Right now, the entire roster is healthy and I’d expect to see them all take the court. When this team is firing on all cylinders, they’re among the best in the conference, however, when they’re not, they can lose to just about anyone. They need to rebound the ball this week in Kansas City, as they struggle to do that down the stretch.
Texas Tech – The Red Raiders are the final team who got the elusive double bye from the 12-6 tiebreaker mess. Despite losing JT Toppin, Tech has been able to maintain their level of play for the most part. Despite having one of the best offenses in the country (10th overall), they struggle to get to the free throw line, and their defense has been sub-par. Finally, Texas Tech will need to take care of the ball this week if they want to win, as they turn it over at a high rate for such an elite team.
Single Byes
Iowa State – Someone had to do get left behind, and unfortunately, the Cyclones were the team who got just 1 bye. The Good news is they should get an opening matchup that they can roll through and move on while getting their tournament legs under them. The Cyclones come in stronger on defense (7th overall), than they do on offense (26th overall); however, the Cyclones have been relatively suspect at times down the stretch run of this season. Iowa State is exceptional at turning the ball over, and will look to capitalize on that strength as we move forward.
TCU – The Horned Frogs cannot shoot the ball, like at all. They come in as the worst team in the Big 12 at shooting (49.1% effective field goal %). However, they do well at forcing turnovers, and they get to the line often. TCU will need to make their free throws and turn their opponents over if they want to win a couple.
West Virginia – If you would’ve told me WVU would be getting a bye at all in the preseason, I don’t know that I would’ve believed you. The Mountaineers have been killing it this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. However, they play an extremely slow offensive style, and are just not a good offensive team. They turn it over a lot, they do not shoot free throws well, and they are just 31% from deep. All 3 of those are the worst in the conference. WVU must rely on their defense to generate some offensive opportunity.
UCF – The Knights are making the tournament, however, they’ve been up and down a bit this year. They do extremely well at defensive rebounding (2nd in the conference), however, their overall defensive profile isn’t great. They do well at taking care of the ball, and shooting the deep ball. The Knights will play some shootouts in Kansas City!
Sleepers
Cincinnati – Since February first, Cincinnati is playing like the 11th team in the country per BartTorvik.com. Of course, from a tournament standpoint, Cincinnati is still facing an uphill climb, however, the Bearcats are dangerous. They’re an elite defensive team (12th nationally), however, they struggle on offense. They do shoot the ball fairly well from deep (35% in Big 12 play). If they can get hot from deep, they can make a run. I stand by the thought that they need to beat Arizona to have a chance to make it in.
BYU – AJ Dybantsa. End of story. I completely understand that this team has disappointed, but when you have a star like AJ, anything is possible. BYU does excellent inside the arc on offense, but struggles from deep. They like to play a fast pace, however, they do not defend well at all (14th in the Big 12).
The Rest
Arizona State – Hurley is out, the fast paced offense doesn’t do much well (other than getting to, and converting from the FT line). On defense, they are slightly better, and do well at turning teams over and blocking some shots.
Colorado- 7-11 in the Big 12 after very low preseason expectations is actually solid for the Buffaloes. On offense, they take exceptional care of the ball, and they make their free throws. However, on defense, they struggle, and it’s going to be hard for them to keep up with some of these high octane offenses.
Oklahoma State – The Cowboys 18-13 record looks great on paper, however, they haven’t really played anyone of note, and their wins aren’t good enough to dance. They shoot very poorly inside the arc, and play at a lightning fast pace. On defense, they don’t do much well, but they can force some turnovers and get teams sped up.
Baylor – The Bears come into this one having improved throughout the year, however, their defense has let them down. They rank 122nd in the nation on that side of the ball, which limits their high-octane offense. Baylor shoots the ball well from inside the arc, and grabs a lot of offensive rebounds. If they can get into shootouts, they might be able to win a game or two, but if they have to rely on their defense, they’re in trouble.
Kansas State – Tang is out, however, the offense is putrid. They play at the fastest tempo in the conference, and will look to speed teams up, however, they don’t do much with it once they get the ball.
Utah – 92nd on offense, 213th on defense… There’s not much else to say about this one.
Picks:
Both @thexav1 and I are going with Arizona to win the tournament, however, we do have some differences between the two brackets!
NKY’s Projection:
Charlie’s Projection:
