By Michael Gross

🔐

 Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky 

“Near Lock”

Missouri, Georgia 

“Good Shape”

Texas A&M, Texas

“Bubble” 

Auburn

“Fringe Bubble”

None

“Eliminated”

None

“Near Lock”

           Missouri very likely secured their bid by splitting their road trip against Miss St. and Oklahoma. No it wasn’t pretty they got handled pretty easily by Oklahoma. However, we just have to come to terms with the fact that often when Missouri loses it’s by a large margin. At the same time they have wins over Florida, Kentucky, Vandy and Tennessee. They finish the regular season at home against Arkansas. If they win that; the Tigers are a 🔒 no questions asked. If they lose especially in blowout fashion; then we might have reasons to be concerned. As of now, I’m not worried.

           I can’t see Georgia not getting in either. They have a top 30 Resume average, 7 Q1 wins including a Q1A road win over Kentucky. The only issue with their resume is their NonCon SOS of around 300 and close to half of their wins coming in Q4. The only way this will come into play is if it’s a close decision on whether the Bulldogs are in our out. If they beat Miss St. this weekend; it won’t be a close decision. I’m not even sure it’ll be close if they lose, but best not to chance it.

“Good Shape”      

            Texas is a very interesting case. The good is they have 7 Q1 wins including wins away from home against Alabama, and NCST. They have also played a SOS near the top 10 in all of College Basketball. They also have a WAB of 1.47. The bad is they are just 1-9 in Q1A games. For what it’s worth they are also 0-2 in Q2A games. It also doesn’t help they are just 3-3 in Q2/3 games. The question is how much does the committee ding them for their Q1A record. After all they have anywhere from 3-6 wins against teams in the field. If they beat Oklahoma at home this weekend; I’ll feel the same about them as I do Ohio St. I might not 🔒 them if they win, but it’s hard to see them missing it. If they lose then things do get dicey. Take care of business Longhorns!

           Texas A&M’s home win over Kentucky which snapped a 2 game losing streak is probably going to push them over the top in the end. However, they are not in quite as strong as position as the two teams in the higher category are. Their resume metrics are around 40 and they don’t have the high end road win that Missouri and Georgia have. They do however, have 3 road wins over Georgia, Texas and Auburn. That’s a nice tiebreaker to have if it comes down to them or say Texas or Auburn. If The Aggies are able to go to Baton Rouge and beat LsU; I don’t think tiebreakers are going to come into play as to if they do or don’t make the field.

“Bubble”

          It really feels like do or die for Auburn this weekend on the road against Alabama. If they can win on the road; think there is better than a 50/50 chance they hear their name called on Selection Sunday regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. If they don’t beat Alabama; I think there is a very small chance they get in. They would have to make a run in the SEC Tournament and hope the committee actually cares this year about Conference Tournaments.