Date: Saturday, March 8, 2026
Time: Noon ET
Location: Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
TV: TNT/TruTV
Spread: Villanova -11.5
As Big East play ends, the Xavier Musketeers have one last showdown with the Villanova Wildcats. Honestly, there is little to no value in this game for either team. Nova is locked into the 3 seed in the Big East Tournament and Xavier will either get the 8/9, or 10 seed.
There is one main factor for X that will most likely determine whether or not this game is close: Tre Carroll, who played just 4 minutes vs. Seton Hall on Tuesday due to a hip injury, is listed as a game time decision on Saturday. However, after social media interactions, many X fans prefer for him to sit out and rest up for Wednesday’s Big East Tourney game. Villanova also took a major blow recently, as they lost forward Matt Hodge for the year with an ACL injury. He underwent successful surgery on 3/6.
The Musketeers are very bad on the road this year, and are 1-8 in Big East play away from Cintas. The one win came against Georgetown, the last place Big East team. On the other side, the Wildcats are 13-3 at home. With Tre’s minutes likely being limited (or him sitting altogether), Villanova comes in as 11.5 point favorites.
Can the Muskies pull off a huge upset or will the ‘Cats handle business per usual? Let’s dive in!
Last Meeting
When these two met in Cintas on 2/17, Villanova pulled out a gutsy 92-89 OT win. It was a really entertaining game with lights out offense. Nova was 44% from the field and X was 51%. However, X’s late game execution proved costly as they turned it over multiple times down the stretch. Tre Carroll led a valiant OT effort and scored 28 points, while Jovan Milicevic added 20. Acaden Lewis had 21 for Nova and all of their starting 5 were in double figures. The Wildcats held on despite X having more rebounds, assists, and shooting better. Turnovers killed X as they had 16 to Villanova’s 6.
As Carroll kept the Muskies in the game, it will be interesting to see how they perform without him. This is similar for Nova with Hodge being out.
Keys to the game
Take Care of the Ball: As cited above, X was killed by TOs in the first meeting. Tre Carroll turned the ball over to lose the game with a chance to tie right in front of him. Carroll had 6 TOs, Milicevic had 4, and Malik Messina-Moore also added 3. Villanova was nearly flawless with the ball and if they keep that up this time around, they should comfortably win.
Making Shots: This one is pretty self-explanatory, Villanova shoots 45.6% from the field and X shoots 44.5%. That’s pretty even, the first game was a shootout, meaning you have got to be hitting your shots to win this game. Whichever defense can lock in and force some tough shots will have a good chance at taking this.
Ball Movement: Xavier’s offense consisted mainly of guys trying to play hero ball last game, and this led to some low basketball IQ plays down the stretch, allowing the Pirates to sink the Musketeers ship. Saturday, ball movement is crucial. X must move the ball and provide options for their teammates, rather than staying stagnant. As for Nova, the ball movement is superb from these guys, so they will look to keep doing that.
Starting Rotations
Disclaimer: These are based off last game’s starters and are subject to change. (This assumes Carroll is out and Roddie Anderson slides into the starting 5)
Stats are minutes per game, points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game.
Xavier
- Malik Messina-Moore: 33.1 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.9 APG
- Jovan Milicevic: 25.4 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.3 APG
- Filip Borovicanin: 30.9 MPG, 10.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.3 APG
- All Wright: 23.0 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 2.0 APG
- Roddie Anderson: 25.6 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.2 APG
Villanova
- Duke Brennan: 30.7 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 2.0 APG
- Malachi Palmer: 17.5 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 0.6 APG
- Tyler Perkins: 29.4 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 APG
- Bryce Lindsay: 28.5 MPG, 12.3 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.1 APG
- Acaden Lewis: 30.3 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.1 APG
Seeding For Bet
There are multiple scenarios for Xavier here, I will explain them. Nova is locked into the 3 seed.
If Seton Hall beats St. John’s tonight, Xavier fans want the 10 seed as that keeps them away from UConn. If SJU wins, X fans want the 8/9 seed. This is all assuming Xavier loses tomorrow.
If SJU wins: X wants Georgetown to beat Providence to get the 8/9 seed.
If SHU wins: X wants Providence to beat Georgetown to get the 10 seed.
Xavier can’t tell what exactly will happen until after SHU vs SJU tonight, so keep an eye on that and check back here after. Now, time for my prediction.
Prediction
Xavier has been awful on the road, and this on top of Carroll being out/limited minutes gives them little to no chance. Give me Villanova 84-68. Kenpom projects this matchup to be an 83-71 Villanova win.
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