Champ week is coming soon, and with that, we are extremely close to starting to place teams into the Field of 68. With mid-major conference tournaments in full swing, our latest Bracketology update tackles the biggest questions in college hoops: Can Miami (OH) secure a lock at 31-0? Who wins the logjam for the final 2-seeds? From the Sun Belt’s “Ladder of Death” to the thinning bubble, we’re breaking down every high-stakes matchup that will define the Field of 68.
Bracketology Note:
- I am planning to fully re-look at the bracket Friday evening. Things will shift a bit as I try to evaluate a bit more some of the areas I’m unsure on.
- Specific areas I’m most interested in looking at: Final two 2 seeds. (MSU/Illinois/Purdue/Nebraska/ISU). The order of the 4 seeds and the chances they have to move to the 3 line. The 5/6 lines have gotten a lot of my attention so far this week. I think I’ll leave them as-is, but will briefly evaluate. The only 7 seeds I’m confident should be on the 7 line are Miami and SMC. After that, the group of BYU/SLU/Clemson/Georgia/Villanova/Utah State/UCF are pretty jumbled and all feel like 8’s. Missouri/Iowa/NC State all feel pretty solid on the 9 line, and I think UCLA is that final 10. Miami (OH) will remain on the 10 line as the divider between the field and the bubble. Though, I do think A&M/TCU/Texas are in relatively safe positions. I’m going to be really dialing into the last 5 teams in, as well as evaluating as much as aI can on the teams out.
- Bottom line, it feels like we’re down to 5 spots really up for grabs, with 11 teams really in play for inclusion. Things have tightened drastically and it’s going to be a monumental weekend!
- Of note: Auburn is relatively simple. A win vs. Alabama would make them pretty secure. A loss will likely keep them out. Saturday is monumental!
Lehigh with the most memorable shot of the night:
Key Results:
Michigan survives a really tough test from Iowa. The Hawkeyes remain a 9, Michigan remains 2 overall.
Michigan State survives a scare from Rutgers. MSU remains a 2.
MVC
- Arch Madness got started yesterday, and with it we saw some awesome matchups! Drake came back from a 4 point deficit at the half to beat Southern Illinois 67-63. Valparaiso overcame a 9 point halftime deficit to beat Indiana State by 1! UNI beat Evansville to close out the night! The Aces put up a solid fight!
OVC
- Day 2 of the OVC brought some great matchups! UT Martin survived a scare from Eastern Illinois, winning by 3. Southeast Missouri beat Lindenwood behind a dramatic shot to end the game!
Patriot
- The Patriot saw some pure chaos. You saw the Lehigh result above, but we also had Colgate winning big, Boston U beating American by 2, and Navy beating Bucknell by 5 despite a really tough fight from the Bison.
Summit
- North Dakota State took care of Oral Roberts to start the night off, and South Dakota State and St. Thomas played a fun one with St. Thomas winning by 13!
MAAC
- Sacred Heart upset Iona in a huge result, and Fairfield rolled past Manhattan to open things up from Atlantic City!
Sun Belt
- The Ladder of death saw two more eliminations. Southern Miss beat James Madison by 8 to kick the day off, before Arkansas State and Georgia Southern played a fun one, with Georgia Southern squeaking out a 3 point win!
WCC
- The tournament kicked off with Portland beating Pepperdine! San Diego defeated LMU late night.
Friday Night will see games throughout the day, starting off with the Big South, ASUN at noon, MVC at 1, and CAA at 2. The SoCon and Sun Belt join in the early evening, and we have a full slate of games throughout the night!
Tournament Games:
UCF @ WVU | 8:00, CBSSN
This game has massive implications for both teams. Despite being the final game of the year, UCF has been sliding and is currently projected as a 9. A loss here could leave them vulnerable to be passed by others. WVU is no longer a bubble team.
St. John’s @ Seton Hall | 9:00, FS1
The Johnnies are a 5 seed. They likely will not get higher than that. However, a loss leaves them very vulnerable totaling to the 6 line if others get some big wins. Seton Hall, on the other hand, needs a marquee win on their resume to atleast get close to the cut-line. It’s truly win or they will need the AQ for the Pirates. They come in as my 6th team out. St. John’s is favored by 4.5.
Miami @ Ohio | 9:00, ESPN2
The Battle for the Bricks, part 2! The RedHawks will look to get to 31-0 with a win here. Of note, they have not beaten the Bobcats in Athens since 2011. This matchup presents an opportunity for the RedHawks to be locked into my field. If we are leaving a team who goes the entire regular season undefeated out, we need a new system to select teams IMO. Miami is favored by 5.5.
Conference Tournaments:
CAA:
- Just one game today, NC A&T faces Northeastern to get the tournament started! NCAT favored by 1.5. 2:00 Tipoff
SoCon
- 2 matchups today in the Southern, 5:00 ET and then 7:30! The Citadel and Chattanooga take the court first in a game that Chattanooga is favored by 6.5. VMI will face off with UNC Greensboro in the following game with Greensboro favored by 7.5.
ASUN
- After taking Thursday off, the conference is in full swing now. We will get to see the top seeds take the court today, starting with Bellarmine and Central Arkansas (-5.5), followed by FGCU and Lipscomb (-4.5) in the early games. The evening will see Stetson and Austin Peay (-9.5), and West Georgia and Queens (-5.5) battle. Every one of these games will be fun, and the action starts at noon from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville! Reminder of how the bracket is setup:
Sun Belt
- The Ladder of death continues on!
- We will see Southern Miss and Texas State face off in what should be an extremely fun matchup! We will then get South Alabama and Georgia Southern at 8:30. The matchups in the Pensacola Bay Center are heating up!
MAAC
- Sacred Heart @ Merrimack kick things off at 6:00, and Saint Peters matches up with Fairfield at 8:30. Can Sacred Heart pull off a historic run?
Big South
- This tournament really gets going today! High Point gets Gardner-Webb to start the day. Expect a blowout. After that though, the other 3 games should be close. Winthrop is 4.5 point favorites over Charleston Southern at 2:30, Longwood is 1.5 point favorites over UNC Asheville at 6:00 PM, and Presbyterian and Radford finish the night with Radford being 1.5 point favorites. All games on ESPN+!
Summit
- Two games. Omaha and South Dakota kick things off at 7:00. Omaha is favored by 2.5. Denver and North Dakota will face off at 9:30 with Denver being favored by 3.5. @T3Bracketology has you covered on X for all of these matchups from the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls!
MVC
- 4 games, ranging from 1PM ET and likely ending after midnight ET! Drake and Belmont will start the night; Belmont is the heavy favorite to win the entire tournament. UIC and Murray State will battle after that in a game that I’m extremely excited to watch. UIC is competitive, but I think Murray might be the most compelling upset pick to go dancing. Murray is favored by 1.5. Valparaiso and Bradley open the night time segment in a game that should be very exciting, and Illinois State closes out the day from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis against Northern Iowa!
OVC
- UT Martin will battle Tennessee State in a key battle with UT Martin in the Semifinals. This feels like a complete toss-up and I’m going to be locked into this. Morehead state will face off with SEMO to close out the 3rd night in the Ford Center in Evansville.
WCC
- The OG ladder continues tonight! Washington State will face Portland, and Seattle will play San Diego. These matchups will be extremely fun to watch in Orleans Arena in Vegas!
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