By Michael Gross
🔐
Nebraska, Michigan, Mich St., Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin
“Near Lock”
Iowa, UCLA
“Good Shape”
Ohio St.
“Bubble”
Indiana
“Fringe Bubble”
USC
Eliminated
None
Wisconsin sealed their bid by defeating Washington in Seattle. They came home and crushed Maryland just for good measure. The Badgers now own 5 Q1 wins after having just 1 (albeit a big 1) in early February. The 3 wins they have over teams currently projected amongst the top 10 overall seed list is outstanding!
“Near Lock”
I think the Bruins are good to go after handily defeating Nebraska in Las Angeles. Similar to Wisconsin, they have 3 wins over teams projected for protected seeds (protected seeds are top 4 seed lines). The difference is these 3 wins all came at home and none of them against a likely 1 seed. The only thing holding UCLA back is this. They are 17-1 at home, but just 3-9 away from home. They finish the regular season playing USC on the road. If they win they’ll be in and knock USC off the page altogether. If they lose and go out right away to open the Big Ten Tournament; they’ll be 3-11 away from home. I think they’ll still squeeze in under that scenario, but don’t test it.
All Iowa needed to do down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament was being Ohio St., Maryland and Penn St. That didn’t feel like it was asking too much. They were supposed to beat Ohio St. at home (which they did). Meanwhile, Penn St. and Maryland both sit well outside the top 100 of the NET. Yet Iowa lost to both of them. Fortunately, they beat Nebraska at home in between. This is a resume being held up by home wins over Nebraska, UCLA and Ohio St. plus a road win over Indiana. They finish with Michigan at home and Nebraska on the road. If they win either; they are a 🔒 and probably a lock for single digit seed. If they lose both however, things get interesting heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
“Good Shape”
All of the sudden Ohio St. is in pretty decent shape to make the NCAA Tournament. The wins down the stretch against Wisconsin and Purdue have put them into the projected field and by most accounts above Dayton. If they beat Indiana at home this weekend; I’m not sure I’ll call them a 🔒 to dance. However, if they beat IU and don’t take a bad loss in the Big Ten Tournament; I’m very confident they will make it.
“Bubble”
Honestly this regular season finale has become more important for Indiana to win than Ohio St. Not long ago it looked like Ohio St. was the one that would have to win this game to have any chance. Now it’s Indiana that needs to win to have a chance. They did snap a 4 game losing streak by crushing Minnesota at home. However, those 4 losses which included a home loss to Northwestern puts them 5-12 in Q1/2 games. If they don’t beat Ohio St., I just don’t see it. When all is said and done a loss probably sees them ending up somewhere between 5-7 Q1/2 wins and 13-14 losses depending on the Big Ten Tournament and how the teams get adjusted in between the quad splits. If they win; they have a real chance, but probably still have to do some work in the Big Ten Tournament to get in.
“Fringe Bubble”
Man it’s been a rough 3 weeks for USC. Not long ago they were in “good shape” to dance. Since then, the Trojans have lost 6 in a row and one of their best players left the team. If they beat UCLA this weekend we can revisit their chances. If they don’t; they are done.
Leave a comment