By Michael Gross
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Arizona, Iowa St., Houston, Kansas, TTU, BYU
“Near Lock”
UCF, TCU
“Good Shape”
None
“Bubble”
OKST
“Fringe Bubble”
Cincy
“Eliminated”
None
“Near Lock”
All UCF needed to do to clinch a bid was beat either Baylor or OKST at home. They couldn’t get the job done. The wins over Kansas, TTU, BYU and at Texas A&M gives them plenty of wiggle room. However, if they don’t win at WVU on Friday; that wiggle room is going to be much smaller. I think they end up getting in no matter what, but don’t make this interesting!
TCU has vaulted themselves all the way from the “Bubble” Section to “Near Lock”. The win at Kansas St. was important, but not nearly as valuable as the road win over the Red Raiders was. They now own wins over Iowa St., TTU, Florida and Wisconsin. I know they have some bad losses, but those are great wins to offset them. If TCU can handle a suddenly red hot Cincinnati team; the Horned Frogs are dancing!
“Bubble”
OKST wins at UCF to keep themselves alive and moves back up to the “Bubble” Section. They now have wins over BYU and UCF. However, those are their only Q1 wins. This still doesn’t feel like an NCAA Tournament team. Their predictives definitely say no and their resume metrics are hovering around 50. It really all comes down to this. They host Houston on Saturday. If they win; they have a real chance. If they don’t win it; I don’t see it.
“Fringe Bubble”
With Arizona St., Baylor and Colorado falling by the wayside recently; I might as well address the elephant in the room that is Cincinnati. There’s no question they are playing good basketball right now. I just think it’s too little too late. The wins over Kansas, Iowa St. and BYU are outstanding. However, those are their only Q1 wins in 13 tries. It’s not like they’ve been unbeatable outside of Q1 either as they are 7-2 in Q2/3 games for a Q1-3 record of 10-12. Then there is that Q4 home loss to Eastern Michigan which didn’t even qualify for the MAC Conference Tournament. They absolutely have to beat TCU in Fort Worth to continue having this discussion. Even then, I just don’t think Cincinnati has the SOS numbers or WAB numbers to get in with 18 wins. I think they’ll need at least 2 additional wins in the Big 12 Tournament. We also don’t know if the committee is really going to consider those results or not.
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