By Michael Gross
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Duke, UNC, UVA, Louisville
“Near Lock”
Miami, Clemson
“Good Shape”
NCST
“Bubble”
Cal, Virginia Tech, SMU
“Fringe Bubble”
Stanford
“Eliminated”
GT
“Near Lock”
It’s kind of crazy that Miami has almost sealed a bid basically on one good week against good teams. They beat North Carolina at home and then beat NCST on the road. That being said the 23 wins they have does stand out when we have bubble teams still in the Teens. If Miami either wins one of their last 2 regular season games or doesn’t take a bad L in the ACC Tournament; they’ll be fine.
Clemson picked up a much needed win over Louisville over the weekend. They are probably good to go if they just beat GT this weekend. They are definitely in if they win at UNC before that.
“Good Shape”
Tough loss for the Wolf Pack in South Bend. Things are getting dicey again for them. Their WAB and SOR metrics have fallen to around 40. The wins over UNC, Clemson and SMU are nice, but they have multiple losses to Non NCAA Tournament teams. If they beat Duke at home; they are in for sure. If they don’t; they really need to beat Stanford and avoid a bad loss in the ACC Tournament. If they lose to Duke and Stanford; they might be Last Four In at best entering the ACC Tournament.
“Bubble”
SMU went 0-2 on their West Coast trip. Once again things have gotten murky for the Mustangs. Now they finish with Miami and Florida St. They really need to win at least 1 if not both of them. If they don’t and they go out early in the ACC Tournament; I’m not sure that home wins over UNC and Louisville will be enough.
Virginia Tech got the first of their two big opportunities to add quality wins when they played UNC in Chapel Hill. They played well, but came up short. They need to take care of business against Boston College and then take their chances on the road against Virginia. If they win that; I think they make it. If they don’t; I don’t think they will.
Just an awful loss for Cal at home against Pitt. They are going to have to beat GT and Wake Forest and then see where they stand heading into the ACC Tournament. I think their best hope now is playing in Dayton.
“Fringe Bubble”
Stanford maybe has a faint pulse after beating SMU, but it’s unlikely. They’ll need to beat Notre Dame and NCST on the road to have a chance.
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