The true magic of March isn’t found in the dominance of blue bloods, it’s the chaotic bracket-busting runs of the underdogs. These moments are what define March Madness; when a small program emerges from the shadows and completely destroys a giant’s championship hopes to turn Cinderella from a dream to a reality. This year, who will go down with the legendary runs of Loyola Chicago (2018), FAU (2023) Saint Peter’s (2022), George Mason (2006), NC State (2024) and many more? Here is your official guide to those legendary bracket busters.
Starting off with the best story of this college basketball season, out of the MAC, the Miami (OH) Redhawks. These guys are dangerous for multiple reasons. First, their ability to win close games, Travis Steele’s coaching down the stretch has been flawless, as these guys haven’t lost a game. The Redhawks also average 90.9 PPG on 39.2% 3PT shooting. Any team that can shoot the lights out from deep is dangerous come March. If Miami gets hot from 3, a high seed could find themselves in serious danger. Miami has 6 players averaging double digits. A balanced attack is crucial, and having that much firepower on offense makes it much more challenging for a defense to slow down all points of attack. These guys are also playing with a chip on their shoulder. They are undefeated however, there is still some serious doubt from the national media on whether or not they are the real deal. The Redhawks are looking at anywhere from a 9 seed to an 11 right now. Watch out for Steele and Co. come March.
Next up, out of the Missouri Valley, is the Belmont Bruins. The Bruins are an explosive team, they shoot 40.4% from 3. As long as they can handle business in the MVC Conference Tourney, where they are heavy favorites, they are projected as a 12 seed. Belmont has multiple wins over strong mid-majors, including Northern Iowa x2, UC Irvine, and Illinois-Chicago x2. These guys shoot a whopping 51.8% from the field, any team who is that clinical and efficient shooting basketball is dangerous. They could get hot from the field, and before you even realize, a 5 seed like Arkansas is down 10. As a matter of fact, in 33 of the last 39 NCAA Tourneys, a 12 seed has beaten a 5. Belmont last made March Madness in 2020 as an Auto Bid, as we all know, March Madness was cancelled then. The Bruins will be hungry to avenge that 2020 squad and go on a run.
Coming up next, out of the American, is the South Florida Bulls. Have you noticed a pattern yet? USF averages 88.2 PPG. High levels of shooting and scoring are crucial to a Cinderella candidate, as seen in Loyola Chicago (2018) shooting 50.7% from the field and 39.6% from 3. The Bulls lead the American with 42.9 RPG. Rebounding is crucial in March since it can stifle your opponent and let you dominate possession. US also is projected to be a 12 seed, assuming they win the AAC title. On top of the scoring, the Bulls are top 25 in steals per game, with 8.8. Forcing turnovers, rebounding, and scoring is a scary combo. This group took down Utah State, a current tournament team, they also took Alabama down to the wire, on the road. This is that lethal, under the radar group that can really give top teams a hard time, they remind me of Saint Peter’s in a sense, with more upside. As St. Pete’s was a 15 and these guys will be a 12. Look out for Bryan Hodgson and his squad this March.
Under-the-Radar High Majors
Starting off with the SEC’s Missouri Tigers. The Tigers are hitting their stride at the perfect moment, they already have a win over projected 2 seed Florida, and they have added depth in recent weeks. This includes wins over three tournament caliber teams in Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, on a red hot 6-2 stretch. They aren’t just winning games, they are building a dangerous resume nobody wants to see in their region. Every year, we are talking about teams needing to peak at the right time, and Mizzou is doing exactly that. Dennis Gates has got his guys playing, they are shooting 49.2% from the field and averaging 80.3 PPG. Their rotation is 10 guys deep, which will keep them fresh during the tourney. We all know a team from Dayton almost always gets hot and wins a few games. There is a chance of Mizzou being thrown into Dayton. However, the Tigers can do this whether or not they are in Dayton. They currently have beaten 2 projected 5 seeds, a 2 seed, a 7 seed, and a 10. If I’m a top seed seeing Missouri in my pod, I’d be concerned.
Lastly, repping the Big Ten, the UCLA Bruins. Mick Cronin’s squad has picked up two massive wins recently. This includes an overtime buzzer beater by Donovan Dent to win over current 2 seed Illinois, they also walloped USC by 19 last Tuesday. The Bruins already have a marquee home win over Purdue, giving them two top-tier wins on their resume, proving they can punch with the heavyweights. This isn’t unfamiliar territory for Cronin, who has already made a run like this with UCLA. In 2021, the Bruins went from the First 4 to the Final 4. They were an 11 seed and were a Jalen Suggs overtime prayer away from the National Championship. Point made, Cronin is knows exactly how to go on a run. As referenced with Missouri, anyone capable of beating high level teams like this is very dangerous in March. UCLA is getting hot at the right time, they are a projected 10 or 11 seed and if they can work up to an 8 or 9, they could give a 1 seed a real challenge. Look out for 2021 all over again with this crew.
There you have it, my 5 most likely Cinderellas this year. Keep your eyes on all of these guys come March. They are extremely dangerous and if I were a fan of a tourney team capable of winning it all, I’d want to avoid these teams. Who do you like out of this group the most, and who would you include that isn’t on here?
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