2026 Bracketology: Bubble Watch Update & Mid-Major Conference Races

Published by

on

Wednesday night saw pandemonium everywhere! No new bracket today, but I will have one made for Friday AM. I need some time to fully re-do the seed list.

Live Bubble picture: This is extremely tenative, I’ll be spending a good amount of time on the bubble today.

  • In: (in order)
    • UCLA (Relatively Safe)
    • Texas A&M (Relatively Safe)
    • Auburn
    • Texas
    • TCU
    • Cal
    • New Mexico
    • SDSU
  • Out: (not in order at this time)
    • USC
    • Indiana
    • Santa Clara
    • VCU
    • Ohio State
    • Virginia Tech
  • Well out:
    • OKST
    • WVU
    • Seton Hall

Berth Watch:

  • 29 teams are locked into the tournament.
  • We have 46 spots total, so that leaves 17 spots for roughly 26 teams!
  • ACC: 9
  • Big Ten: 8
  • Big 12: 8
  • Big East: 3
  • SEC: 11
  • Non P-5: 7
Thursday Night:

Tonight is extremely mid-major heavy, per usual. I’ll group the conferences together below after the tournament team games!

Michigan State @ Purdue | 8:00, Peacock

This is one of the biggest games of the year in the Big Ten! Both teams are 12-4 on the year in conference, and both are 22-5. Purdue projects as a 2 right now. Michigan State projects as a 4, but would move to a 3 with a road win here!

Conference Races:

CAA

Charleston and Hampton are playing an 11:00 AM local tipoff in Virginia. Charleston is favored by 4.5 and looking to keep up at the top of the conference. Campbell and Drexel will battle in a key matchup at the middle of the CAA bracket. Elon and Towson are deadlocked at 6-9, and tonight’s matchup will separate them. UNC Wilmington hosts NC A&T in a game they should win big. Northeastern and William & Mary will battle in Williamsburg, and finally, Stony Brook travels to Monmouth hoping to take a decisive 2-game lead over Monmouth.

A-10

We have a battle at the bottom of the conference with Rhode Island traveling to Saint Bonaventure. SBU is favored by 2.5.

Am East

The biggest game in the conference today is UMass Lowell @ Vermont. The Catamounts are 10.5-point favorites; however, UMass Lowell will come ready to play. Maine and UAlbany will face off in a key game with just 1 game separating the two in the standings. Bryant travels to UMBC in a game that UMBC should handle easily. New Hampshire and Binghamton will battle at the bottom of the conference.

SWAC

Game of the night is Bethune-Cookman traveling to Grambling State in a matchup that they’re favored by 1.5. Alcorn State and Texas Southern battle in a game that is very important in the middle of the bracket. Florida A&M travels to Baton Rouge to take on Southern. Southern is favored by 9.5 and is looking to keep a hold of 2nd place in the conference. Finally, Jackson State travels to Prairie View A&M in a matchup that Jackson State needs to keep in the top 5 of the league.

American

Temple and FAU will battle in a game of 7-win teams in Boca Raton. FAU is favored by 4.5. Wichita State travels to Memphis in a game that features two of the bigger mid-major brands in the country, but won’t have national impact. Memphis is favored by 1.5.

Big South

High Point travels to Presbyterian in a game that would lock them into the regular season title. UNC Asheville heads to Boiling Springs to take on Gardner-Webb in a vital game in the middle of the standings. Radford hosts SC Upstate. Radford is a game ahead of the cluster of 7-win teams, and securely in 3rd right now. Winthrop battles Charleston Southern in a game that the Eagles should win easily.

NEC

LIU has locked the conference up. They play Chicago State tonight at home. Mercyhurst and Central Connecticut battle in a game that will help determine seeding for the conference tournament. New Haven travels to Staten Island for a matchup with Wagner. New Haven is looking to jump above .500 on the conference year. Saint Francis and Stonehill play, with both teams looking for momentum heading into the tournament. FDU and Le Moyne battle in Syracuse in a game that will help determine tournament seeding.

Southern

UNC Greensboro is in Chattanooga looking to catch up with the other 9-win teams, and Samford hosts VMI looking to join Furman and Mercer with 10 wins. Saturday will be electric for this conference.

ASUN

Just two games today. FGCU looks to get to 9 conference wins and gain separation from the others, while Jacksonville and Stetson battle at the bottom of the conference.

CUSA

Liberty officially clinches the conference with a win tonight vs. Kennesaw State on the road. Jacksonville State will look to make a jump up the standings vs. Delaware tonight. Missouri State and LA Tech will battle in Ruston in a key seeding matchup. UTEP looks to climb from the basement by beating Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky will look to separate further from the middle with a win over NM State, and Sam Houston will look to clinch 2nd place with a win and a WKU loss.

Summit

NDSU has won the conference; however, they’ll look to damage St. Thomas a bit by beating them tonight. Denver is in Tulsa vs. Oral Roberts in a key game where Denver hopes to separate a bit from Omaha. South Dakota State and Kansas City will play hoping to gain momentum headed to tournament time.

OVC

Morehead State takes on Little Rock in a game the Eagles need if they want to continue to push towards the regular season title. Tennessee Tech and UT Martin face off in a game where UT Martin is looking to gain some momentum back after a recent slide. SIUE will look to get win 11 vs. Western Illinois. The game of the night is Tennessee State @ SEMO where SEMO is favored by 3.5. The winner gets a 14th conference win. Eastern Illinois travels to Lindenwood in a matchup that will help shape the middle of the bracket.

WAC

Reminder: UVU is currently ineligible.

Tarleton State faces off with UVU in Orem. Expect UVU to roll. Abilene Christian travels to Utah Tech in a key matchup as UT Tech looks to keep the AQ spot. UT Arlington faces off with CBU. CBU is looking to keep up with the top of the conference.

Big West

UC Santa Barbara is favored by 11.5 and should roll here to help get them closer to the top grouping. Hawaii and UC Davis are playing what is one of two games of the night in the conference. Hawaii comes in with a 1.5-game lead. Long Beach State looks to avoid the bottom 2 tonight vs. Cal Poly. UC Irvine and CSUN are playing the other game of the night in the conference. CSUN is favored by 1.5. UC San Diego looks to keep pace with the middle of the conference vs. Bakersfield.

Big Sky

Portland State travels to Bozeman to face off with MT State in a key matchup. A win officially wraps the conference up. Montana hosts Sac State in a matchup the Grizzlies need for seeding. Idaho looks to keep up with the 8-win teams, while Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington battle towards the top of the conference.


Discover more from Sansom Sports Media

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Leave a comment