By Michael Gross

🔐 

Arizona, Iowa St., Houston, Kansas, TTU, BYU

“Near Lock”

UCF

“Good Shape”

None

“Bubble”

TCU

“Fringe Bubble”

Colorado, WVU, OKST

           BYU is officially a 🔒. I was a little hesitant to lock them because they had yet to beat an elite level team. There was also the injury concern when it comes to Richie Saunders. However, they got their biggest win of the season knocking off Iowa St. without him over this past week. Combine that win with their 4 wins away from home over teams in the current projected field and no bad losses; this is an NCAA Tournament team.

“Near Lock”

         UCF all but sealed their bid last night by winning in Provo against BYU. That gave them their second win on the road against a team in the field. The home wins over Kansas and Texas Tech are very nice at well. Only concern I have are about their lowish predictives and their remaining schedule. They already have multiple losses to teams that are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. They close the regular season with Baylor, OKST and Cincinnati; none of which are likely Tourney teams. However, as long as they don’t finish 0-3; they are good to go.

“Bubble”

          TCU is doing what they need to do to make the field. Recently they knocked off WVU and Arizona St. They are now 8-8 in Q1/2 games and 11-9 in Q1-3 games with a Q4 loss. The WAB of 45 is still right on the cut line though. They close the regular season with road games against Kansas St. and Texas Tech along with a home game over Cincinnati. I think 2-1 puts them in for sure. The only way they get in prior to the Big 12 Tournament with 1-2 is if the 1 is Texas Tech. It’s really about 50/50 for them.

“Fringe Bubble”

        Colorado stayed alive by beating OKST this past weekend. They’ll try to stay alive again by beating Kansas St. before taking their chance against Houston. Good luck!

        It’s been a rough last week for the Mountaineers. First, they lost at home to Utah before falling on the road against OKST and TCU. That drops them to 16-12 overall and just 8-12 in Q1-3. Let’s see if they can beat BYU, UCF and KState to close the season and if that’s enough. Anything short of that and they probably need to win the B12 Tournament to get in.

        The Cowboys finally snapped a 5 game winning streak by beating West Virginia in OT. However, it might be too late. They finish with UCF and Cincy on the road before hosting Houston. They gotta go minimum 2-1 to have a chance. They’ll have to win all 3 to get in for sure. The issue is they’ll do well to go 1-2 and that definitely won’t be enough.

        Baylor, Arizona St. and Cincinnati are all off the page. If any of them win out, we can revisit. Until then I don’t see it.