By Michael Gross

🔐 

Duke, UNC, UVA, Louisville 

“Near Lock”

  Miami, NCST

“Good Shape”

 Clemson, SMU

“Bubble”

Cal, Virginia Tech

“Fringe Bubble”

Stanford

           Louisville is officially a 🔒 to make the NCAA Tournament. They have 20 wins, a strong SOS and all resume metrics above 26. The wins over NCST, Kentucky and SMU are all solid wins. After beating GT they have no landmine games left in the regular season. I do think that if Louisville wants to improve their seeding; they need to win 1 of their 3 remaining road games. 

“Near Lock”

          It sure has been a tension packed last 10 days for Miami. First, they came back to beat NCST in the final seconds. Next, they held off Virginia Tech by 1. Finally, they fell to Virginia on the road by 3 points. All in all it’s a net positive result that has the Hurricanes closing in on a bid. I think they only need to avoid losing to Boston College to get in, but I’d prefer to see them win 1 of the other 3 remaining games besides the BC game. Any combo of 2-2 the rest of the way and they are a 🔒.

          Huge win for NCST over UNC over the weekend. That gives them wins over UNC, Clemson and SMU. My guess is as long as they don’t finish the regular season 0-4 and bow out early in the ACC Tournament they are in. Certainly if they beat either Virginia or Duke they are in. They’re also definitely in if they just beat ND and Stanford as well.

“Good Shape”

          Clemson sure is making this interesting aren’t they? They’ve lost 4 in a row to turn a 20-4 record into 20-8. Now we see a resume that is void of wins over teams projected above the 8/9 game. They also have 3 or 4 losses to teams that aren’t in the projected field. Their resume is probably good enough to get in as long as they don’t lose to GT to end the regular season. However, it sure would be nice if they could beat either Louisville or UNC. That way they won’t go into their regular season finale on a 6 game losing streak.

          SMU rebounded nicely from their loss to Syracuse by beating Louisville and Boston College. That moved them back up to “Good Shape”. They can probably get in by finishing 1-3, but I think it would be best if they can finish 2-2. That would give them another road win which would be good since they only have 3 road wins. Any win this week moves them up to “Near Lock”. If they beat both Cal and Stanford; they are in. If they lose both however, it gets tense again!

“Bubble”

        Virginia Tech continues to be stuck in the same position week after week. They appear to be just on the wrong side of the bubble. They either come close to getting a bid win and don’t get it, or they get a big win and then follow it up with a questionable loss. They came oh so close to beating Miami on the road before beating Wake handily. I believe if they beat Boston College and either UNC or UVA they will make the NCAA Tournament. If they only beat BC and lose the other 2 games; I just don’t see it.

         Cal did what they needed to do this past week as they beat BC and Stanford. They really need to run that winning streak to 4 games by beating SMU and Pitt this week.

“Fringe Bubble”

         Stanford is just about done. They must beat SMU and Pitt at home this week or they are off the page.

         Syracuse is off the page after being unable to beat either Duke or UNC last week. I don’t even think winning their last 3 games will be enough. If they do let’s revisit this. 

        Also, let’s address Florida St. They are playing very solid basketball right now. However, they are still just 6-12 in Q1/2 games with an additional Q3 loss to UMass that is almost Q4. Their resume metrics are all still in the 70’s. Also, all these wins they’ve gotten lately aren’t exactly coming against the Duke’s and UVA’s of the ACC. They’ve been beating mostly bubble teams and non-Tournament teams. Even if they won out to finish the regular season it looks like they won’t get further than a minus 1 WAB. Win out and we can reevaluate. Anything less and they need to win the ACC Tournament to get in. Who knows! Maybe they will!