By Michael Gross

🔐

 Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee 

“Near Lock”

Kentucky

“Good Shape”

Missouri, Texas

“Bubble” 

Texas A&M, Georgia, Auburn 

“Fringe Bubble”

          Alabama and Tennessee are officially 🔒 for the NCAA Tournament. The Crimson Tide sealed their bid when they blew out SC this past weekend and then added a thrilling OT win over Arkansas. Tennessee clinched their bid with a win over LSU this past weekend. This makes the SEC at minimum a 5 bid league. 

“Near Lock”

         Kentucky still looks poised to becomes the SEC’s 6th bid, but still remain 1 win away after losing to Tennessee and Georgia. 2 more chances this week as they play Auburn and South Carolina on the road.

“Good Shape”

        That almost became a disastrous week for Missouri. First, they got blown out at home by Texas. Then the Tigers almost blew a 21 point lead against Vanderbilt before holding their breath as that half court heave bounced off the rim. As it is, the Tigers added another quality win to add to their collection that includes wins over Florida, plus Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road. Next, they play Arkansas on the road before hosting Tennessee. If they win either game they’ll be in really great shape to make it. If they win both; they are in. If they lose both; they’ll probably drop back to the “Bubble” Section.

          The Longhorns have won 5 in a row since losing 3 of 4 in late January. They are now 7-8 in Q1/2 games and .500 in Q1-3. They now own wins over Vandy, Bama, NCST and Missouri. If they can win at Georgia this weekend; it would take a ton of pressure off the game on Wednesday against Florida. If Texas goes 1-1 in these next 2 games; it’s a net positive for them. If they win both; they are in. If they lose both; then it’s back to the bubble.

“Bubble”

         That was a very big win for Georgia on the road In Lexington. That win now gives their profile a real boost. It gives them a road win over a likely NCAA Tournament team. They now have a Q1A win. They have 4 wins over teams currently in the projected field. They are also 9-7 in Q1/2 games and 5-3 on the road. The issue that 1/2 of their wins are Q4 and that leads to their NonCon SOS which is 301. They do not want to make this a photo finish. A 3-2 finish should avoid that issue. 3-2 would mean at minimum picking up another win over a likely Tournament team. If they finish 2-3 it’s going to be a sweaty Selection Sunday. Anything less and I don’t see it.

          Texas A&M snapped a 4 game losing streak by rallying to beat Ole Miss at home. The road wins over Auburn, Georgia and Texas still have them in the field today. However, the resume metrics in the 40s are somewhat concerning. I think home wins over Texas and Kentucky would be enough, but it sure would be better if they can pick off one of the road games against Oklahoma or LSU. They also get a chance against Arkansas in Fayetteville. A win there would definitely help their path to a bid.

          Auburn has become a very polarizing topic when it comes to if they should or shouldn’t be in the field as of today. On the one hand it’s hard to fathom a 14-12 team being in the field and possibly even above Dayton. It’s also hard to imagine a team that’s 6-12 in Q1/2 and 8-12 in Q1-3 being in. On the other hand; they’ve played the nation’s toughest SOS. All of their metrics are in the top 43 and they have 4 or 5 wins against teams in the projected field. Next up they host Kentucky before playing Oklahoma on the road. I will say it’s hard to see them making it without winning at least 1 of these 2 games. If they want to get in easily without having to win at Alabama they need to win both games. 

         LSU is off the page as they simply have been unable to carry over their 12-1 NonCon record to SEC play. They would have a chance if they win their 5 remaining regular season games. However, given their 2-11 SEC record; it seems unlikely that will happen.