The Zero-Win Paradox: Saint Mary’s vs. Ohio State

In my Friday bracket update, I have Saint Mary’s as a 9-seed and Ohio State as my 4th team out. These two teams perfectly illustrate the “Bubble Headache” of 2026. Both are currently winless in Quadrant 1, yet their metrics tell two very different stories.

Here is the “Tale of the Tape” as of Friday morning:

Metric Comparison

Metric	Saint Mary’s (SMC)	Ohio State (OSU)
Resume Avg	32.7 (KPI 31, SOR 34, WAB 33)	47.3 (KPI 52, SOR 44, WAB 46)
Predictive Avg	32.3 (BPI 36, KenPom 29, Torvik 32)	36.7 (BPI 38, KenPom 36, Torvik 36)
Q1 Record	0-3	0-8
Q2 Record	6-1	6-1
Q3/Q4 Record	17-0	11-0

Why the Gap?

Despite the shared 0-fer in Q1 and identical 6-1 marks in Q2, the metric divide is massive. It comes down to two things:

1. The Loss Column Tax: Ohio State has 5 more losses than Saint Mary’s. Even if those losses are “better” (all in Q1), the WAB and SOR punish the sheer volume of defeats.
2. Bottom-Feeders Matter: SMC’s 10-0 mark in Q3 is significantly more valuable to the computers than OSU’s 5-0. The Gaels haven’t just won those games; they’ve dominated them, which is keeping their KenPom and Torvik rankings inside the Top 30.

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The Path Forward: Can They Flip the Script?

Both teams are currently “NET-watching” a few key teams that could change their resumes overnight.

Saint Mary’s: The Gonzaga Opportunity

• Remaining: @ Washington State, vs. Santa Clara, @ Gonzaga.
• The Gaels’ November win over Virginia Tech is currently 6 spots away from flipping to Q1.
• The Verdict: 2-1 probably keeps them in, but if they lose to both Santa Clara and Gonzaga, they risk being the 2026 version of a “Paper Tiger”—great metrics, but zero substance.

Ohio State: High Risk, High Reward

• Remaining: @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs. Purdue, @ Penn State, vs. Indiana.
• The “Flippers”: The Buckeyes have three games close to flipping back to Q1: Northwestern (3 spots away), WVU (11 spots), and Wisconsin (6 spots).
• The Verdict: I have moved OSU “IN” as of this morning, but they are on a razor’s edge. They likely need a 3-2 finish to secure their spot. Keep a special eye on the Columbus matchup vs. Indiana—if the Hoosiers crack the Top 30, that becomes a season-saving Q1 opportunity.

Saturday: A Final Four Preview? Tournament Implications are Everywhere!

Noon-1:45 Tipoffs:

Florida @ Ole Miss | Noon, ESPN

Florida is looking to continue climbing up the seed list, Ole Miss offers opportunity for a bad loss, but no opportunity to gain a good win. Expect Florida to win, and do so big. They’re favored by 12.5 and are on the 2/3 line.

Creighton @ St. John’s | Noon, FOX

Creighton is fresh off of a monumental upset over UConn this week. Can they carry momentum into MSG? The Bluejays aren’t a tournament squad, but are looking to improve the end of the year. SJU is fighting for a 4/5 and this is a matchup they need to win to keep eyes on the 4 line.

NC Central @ Howard | Noon, ESPN+

Key MEAC matchup! The winner will take a step towards the top of the MEAC!

Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech | Noon, ACCN

Tech is currently on the first 4 out and cannot take a home loss to Wake Forest here if they want to stay close.

Florida State @ Clemson | Noon, The CW Network

Clemson is projected as an 8 seed currently. Florida State has been doing as much as they can to create chaos in the ACC this year. This matchup at Littlejohn should be fun!

Cincinnati @ Kansas | 1:00, CBS

Kansas is favored by 10.5, and will hear their name called tomorrow in the top 16 reveal as either a 2 or 3 seed. A win over Cincinnati won’t move the needle much, and I’m more interested to see what happens with Darryn Peterson and how much the team plays together or if cracks start to show with the off court drama. For the Bearcats, there is not really a clear path to the field, but if there’s any chance at all, they have to win this one.

North Carolina @ Syracuse | 1:00, ABC

I’m very intrigued to see how The Tar Heels do after the loss earlier this week in Raleigh. They come in favored by just 2.5 at this time. UNC is a projected 6 tomorrow, but I also think we could hear them mentioned as one of the teams considered for the top 16, falling in that 5 line.

Ualbany @ UMBC | 1:00, ESPN+

This is a key America East matchup, with UMBC looking to keep their grasp on first place in the conference.

Texas State, Marshall, and App State are all playing key Sun Belt matchups that will help delineate the conference standings as all teams have a 10 win record at this moment. 1:00 on ESPN+ for each of the three!

2:00-3:45 ET Tipoffs:

Penn State @ Nebraska | 2:00, BTN

The Huskers look primed to land on the 3/4 line, however, this is a game that could really punish you, especially at home. They’re favored by 20.5 and should roll.

Miami (fl) @ Virginia | 2:00, ESPN2

UVA is favored by 8.5 in this key ACC battle! UVA is just a game ahead of Miami in the standings at this time. I project UVA to be a 4, while Miami is a 9. This would vault the Canes up to the 8 line. A loss would leave them roughly where they are. A loss could move UVA to the 5.

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt | 2:00, ESPN

The ‘Dores are favored by 3.5 in this rivalry matchup. Tennessee is ahead of Vanderbilt by a game at this time in the SEC, and this one will have lasting implications. Vandy projects as a 4/5, while Tennessee is a 5.

Duquesne @ Dayton | 2:00, ESPN+

Both teams are 8-5 in the A-10! This is a key tie breaking game in the league standings.

Harvard @ Cornell | 2:00, ESPN+

Harvard is on the road looking to keep up with Yale in the Ivy standings!

Penn @ Yale | 2:00, ESPN+

With the tough game Harvard has today, this is an opportunity for Yale to potentially extend the lead in the Ivy.

Samford @ Mercer | 2:00, ESPN+

This is a key SoCon battle! Mercer is favored by 3.5 heading into this matchup in Macon. The winner moves to 10-6 on the year!

SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State | 2:00, ESPNU

The OVC is pure chaos, and this matchup can help solve it a bit. However, it could do the opposite and send us into more chaos if SIUE gets a road W. Tennessee State is favored by 4.5.

Georgia Tech @ Louisville | 2:15, The CW Network

My apologies to Louisville fans who are reading this. I was supposed to be up there today, but life got in the way. Next time! Louisville is favored by 23.5 in a game they should roll through. The Cardinals project as a 6 seed currently.

Kansas State @ Texas Tech | 2:30, FOX

I expect Tech will be talked about during the top 16 tomorrow, however, it could be more related to the Toppin injury. The best thing for the Raiders to do here is to roll to a victory. They’re favored by 14.5 and project as a 5 for me.

Arizona @ Houston | 3:00, ABC

Final four preview part 1? It could happen! Houston is favored by 5.5 at home, however, this promises to be an absolute war. Winner is a 1 seed. Loser is likely a 2.

Oklahoma State @ Colorado | 3:30, TNT

Vital game for OKST to avoid taking what would be a really poor loss. They’re 3.5 point underdogs in Boulder and currently by 8th team out.

Texas @ Georgia | 3:30, SECN

BUBBLE BATTLE! The Bulldogs come into this one fading quickly, while Texas continues to climb up. UGA is favored by 2.5. Georgia projects as a 11, while Texas is a 9/10.

4:00-5:45 Tipoffs:

Missouri @ Arkansas | 4:00, ESPN

Arkansas is favored by 10.5, which feels like a ton of points. However, Missouri hasn’t been great outside of Columbia. This is a vital opportunity for the Tigers to push ahead of other bubble teams. For Arkansas, however, it’s an opportunity to keep pushing toward that 4 area.

Oregon @ USC | 4:00, FS1

After getting their doors blown off earlier this week, the Trojans must rebound quickly and take care of an Oregon team that can be a bit feisty this year. USC is favored by 5.5.

Winthrop @ High Point | 4:00, ESPN+

Winner takes sole possession of first in the Big South. The loser will drop back behind them. High Point is favored by 8.5.

Boston College @ SMU | 4:00, ACCN

Landmine for SMU, who is currently a 9. They’re favored by 16.5.

UNC Wilmington @ Campbell | 4:00, FloSports

UNCW continues to lead the conference, however, Charleston isn’t far back. This game is vital as they look to cut down the nets!

Troy @ South Alabama | 4:00, ESPN+

Key Sun Belt matchup where troy comes in favored by 2.5. This one is critical to deciphering the Sun Belt Standings!

SEMO @ Little Rock & Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech | 4:00, ESPN+

Again, the OVC is chaos. These two matchups should help give us clarity. SEMO and Lindenwood are 2.5 point favorites each in this one.

WVU @ TCU | 5:00, Peacock

BUBBLE BATTLE! This time, outside of the field. The loser of this matchup will have an extremely tedious path to a bid. TCU is favored by 5.5.

UConn @ Villanova | 5:30, TNT

How does UConn respond to getting beat at home? They get to head over to Philly to take on a talented Villanova squad. UConn is favored by 2.5 in what should be a fantastic matchup.

6:00-7:45 Tipoffs:

Alabama @ LSU | 6:00, SECN

LSU is 2-11 in SEC play and has no tournament hopes. However, Alabama is fighting for a protected seed. This is a landmine the Tide can’t afford to step on. They project as a 4 currently.

San Diego State @ Colorado State | 6:00, CBSSN

SDSU is favored by 2.5 in Fort Collins, and this should be a rock fight. SDSU has to have it to stay alive.

Georgetown @ Seton Hall | 6:00, FS1

Pirates are on life support. A loss here would practically end their hopes. They’re favored by 4.5.

Stanford @ California | 6:00, ACCN

Cal is favored by 1.5, and if they want to keep their bubble hopes afloat, they have to win.

Michigan vs. Duke | 6:30, ESPN

Critical, final-four type of matchup here at a neutral site in DC!These teams project as 1/2 overall, and Michigan comes in playing great ball right now. The Wolverines are favored by 2.5. Can Michigan’s size neutralize Boozer? Can someone else step up for the Blue Devils?

7:00 – 8:45 Tipoffs

Vermont @ NJIT | 7:00, ESPN+

I still refuse to believe someone else is winning the America East, however, if Vermont is going to do it, they need to win this one. They’re favored by 4.5.

Illinois @ UCLA | 8:00, FOX

Illinois keeps just churning along on the 2/3 lines. Currently, they’re favored by 6.5 over a UCLA team I have moved OUT of my projected field.

New Mexico @ Fresno State | 8:00, CBSSN

I have UNM barely in my field at the moment. A loss here would derail those hopes in a hurry. They’re favored by 8.5.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma | 8:30, SECN

This is a key battle along the bubble for A&M. A win here helps avoid a bad loss, especially on a day we know several bubble teams will lose. They’re favored by 1.5 in this matchup.

Kentucky @ Auburn | 8:30, ESPN

Auburn is in must-win territory here. A loss pushes them out for me. Kentucky is fighting to move back towards the 6 line currently. Auburn is favored by 3.5.

9:00 and later Tipoffs:

Pacific @ Gonzaga | 9:00, ESPN+

Landmine for Gonzaga. They’re favored by 20.5 and a projected 3.

UCF @ Utah | 9:00, ESPN+

Vegas must know something I don’t, because being favored by just 1.5 feels way too low for UCF, however, that’s the line. UCF can’t afford a loss like this to stay above the bubble.

Montana @ Weber State | 9:30, ESPN+

This is a key Big Sky matchup. Both teams are looking for win #9 of the Big Sky season.

Utah State @ Nevada | 10:00, FS1

While Nevada cannot get an at-large, they could cause havoc tomorrow by beating Utah State in Reno. The Aggies project as a 6 currently and come into this one favored by 5.5.

Santa Clara @ San Francisco | 10:00, CBSSN

This is a vital matchup for SCU who is projected as one of the teams I have in Dayton! How will they respond after falling to Gonzaga? They’re favored by 8.5.

Saint Mary’s @ Washington State | 10:00, ESPN2

SMC is favored by 8.5 on the road here, however Washington State has nothing to play for, while SMC has everything to lose. SMC projects as a very bubbly 9.

UC Santa Barbara @ Hawaii | 10:00, ESPNU

Both teams have 10 Big West wins. The winner keeps pace with Irvine, while the loser falls off the pace a bit. Hawaii is favored by 3.5.

UC San Diego @ UC Irvine | 10:00, ESPN+

Irvine is favored by 4.5 in this fun rivalry matchup. A win leaves Irvine alone in first place!

Iowa State @ BYU | 10:30, ESPN

BYU is dealing with injury blows all over the place, and they desperately need this one to maintain their tournament profile. ISU is fighting for a 1 seed currently so this Q1A win would be monumental! ISU is favored by 2.5.