The Horizon League race is absolute chaos right now. With the top five teams earning the right to host a first-round matchup, the battle for those final two slots is essentially a four-team sprint to the finish. The Norse are heavily involved
Current Standings Snapshot
| Rank | Team | Conference | GB | Games Remaining |
| 4 | Robert Morris | 9–7 | 2.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 8–7 | 3.0 | 5 |
| 6 | Detroit Mercy | 8–7 | 3.0 | 5 |
| 7 | Northern Kentucky | 8–8 | 3.5 | 4 |
The Contenders: Path to the Top 5
Robert Morris (9–7)
Remaining Games: vs. Oakland, @ Wright State, vs. Detroit Mercy, vs. Cleveland State
RMU is currently in the driver’s seat, but their schedule is a gauntlet.
- The Outlook: While the Cleveland State game feels like a must-win, facing the top two teams in the league (Oakland and Wright State) back-to-back is a tall order.
- The Goal: A 2–2 finish gets them to 11 wins. The pivotal matchup will be the home tilt against Detroit Mercy—it could effectively serve as a tiebreaker for a top-5 seed.
Purdue Fort Wayne (8–7)
Remaining Games: vs. IU Indy, @ NKU, @ Cleveland State, @ Wright State, @ IU Indy
PFW has the most “manageable” opponents on paper, but the logistics are brutal.
- The Outlook: Bookending their schedule with IU Indy is a gift, as the Jaguars have struggled to close out games. However, a three-game road trip through Highland Heights, Cleveland, and Dayton is a physical and mental grind.
- The Goal: They likely need a 3–2 finish to feel safe. The showdown @ NKU is the swing game for really the entire race here; win that, and the path to 11 wins becomes much clearer.
Detroit Mercy (8–7)
Remaining Games: vs. Youngstown State, vs. Milwaukee, vs. Green Bay, @ Robert Morris, @ Oakland
The Titans have zero room for error. While they are currently tied for the 5-seed, their schedule is back-loaded with difficulty.
- The Outlook: To stay in the hunt, they must sweep their three-game home stand. Closing the season on the road against a desperate RMU and a league-leading Oakland is a nightmare scenario if they haven’t already banked 10 or 11 wins.
- The Goal: They likely need to go 3–2 at minimum, which requires knocking off at least one team currently above them.
Northern Kentucky (8–8)
Remaining Games: vs. Purdue Fort Wayne, @ Youngstown State, @ Cleveland State, vs. Wright State
NKU is in a self-inflicted spot right now, and if they had closed out one of several opportunities this year, they’d be closer to 3 than they are to 7 right now. However, they have a favorable road ahead.
- The Outlook: The Norse host the very team they are chasing (PFW) in their next outing. If they defend their home court in that matchup and handle business against the lower-ranked teams on the road, they are right back in it.
- The Goal: A 4–0 finish guarantees them a home game, but 3–1 (getting to 11 wins) likely puts them in a tiebreaker situation that favors them if they beat PFW.
The Tiebreaker Rules: Navigating the Chaos
If the season ends in a deadlock, the Horizon League follows a strict hierarchy to determine who gets to host:
Two-Team Tie
- Head-to-Head (H2H): Did one team sweep the other?
- Record vs. Next Highest Team: If H2H is split 1–1, the league compares each team’s record against the #1 seed(Wright State), then #2 (Oakland), and so on, moving down the standings until the tie breaks.
- NET Ranking: The “nuclear option”—if they are still tied after comparing records against every team in the league, the team with the higher NCAA NET ranking on the final day wins.
Multiple-Team Tie (3 or More Teams)
- Pod Record: The tied teams are treated as a “mini-conference.” The team with the best combined winning percentage only against the other tied teams gets the higher seed.
- Descending Comparison: If the pod record is tied, the league reverts to comparing records against the #1 seed and working downward.
NKU’s Tiebreaker Snapshot
As it stands, Northern Kentucky is in a “split” situation with almost everyone:
- vs. RMU: 1–1 (Series complete).
- vs. Detroit Mercy: 1–1 (Series complete).
- vs. PFW: 0–1 (The Wednesday, Feb 18 matchup at Highland Heights is the season-definer).
The Big One: If NKU beats PFW on Wednesday, they guarantee at least a split with everyone in the “bubble pod,” making the Record vs. Next Highest Team (how they performed against Wright State/Oakland/others) the deciding factor. This likely will not benefit NKU, which makes that Wright State matchup on 2/28 even more critical.
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