College Basketball Bracketology: Bubble Chaos Shakes NCAA Tournament Picture | 2.15.26 SSM Hoops Newsletter

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Saturday delivered one of the most chaotic days of the college basketball season, completely reshaping the NCAA Tournament bracket picture. Major bubble clashes, top-seed shakeups, and critical résumé wins have altered projections heading toward Selection Sunday. Here’s where the field stands after a dramatic weekend of bracket-defining results.

TCU picks up a massive road win over OKST in a key bubble battle! TCU → L4I

Duke takes care of Clemson, winning by 13. Duke stays a 1, Clemson a 6 or so.

Cal beats BC to stay “Alive”

Michigan holds UCLA to just 18 second half points. UCLA → 11. Michigan remains 2 overall for now.

Iowa State dominates Kansas. ISU back to a 2, KU a 3.

Nebraska beats Northwestern behind a strong 2H. Nebraska a 2/3.

Vandy handles A&M. Aggies now very bubbly. Vanderbilt is a 4.

Virginia Tech falls to Florida State in a brutal 2H. This really damages VT’s hopes for an at-large.

Syracuse beats SMU, knocking SMU into a precarious spot on the bubble. SMU – 9/10.

Villanova takes care of business to beat Creighton and is inching closer to a lock.

Georgia falls to Oklahoma in a key result. UGA → 11.

Florida takes care of business against UK at home. UF → 3. UK → 6/7.

Miami (fl) beats NC State and suddenly the Canes are close to a lock. NCSU remain fine, this will just likely drop their ceiling a bit. Both teams are in that crowded 8 range.

Arizona Drops another matchup this week, this time at home vs. Texas Tech. Tech solidly a 3, Arizona drops from 1 overall. Toppin led the way with 31 in Tuscon!

Tennessee takes care of LSU to remain a 5.

WVU beats UCF on the road to suddenly be close-ish to the bracket. They move to 7th out for me currently.

Virginia beats Ohio State in Nashville. OSU falls back out, while Virginia stays on the 4/5 area.

Utah State dominates Memphis in Logan in a really solid result for the Aggies, who remain a 7.

UConn takes care of Georgetown, winning by just 4. UConn a 1, but Houston is gaining quickly.

Alabama rolls over South Carolina in their first matchup sans Bediako. They remain a 4.

Arkansas beats Auburn by 13 in Fayetteville. Auburn is sliding quickly. Arkansas, meanwhile is a 5/6.

Texas beats Missouri in a monumental bubble battle. Texas in, and above Dayton, while Missouri falls to my first team OUT.

San Diego State takes care of Nevada to move into the field.

Saint Mary’s survives a scare from Pacific.

Gonzaga beats Santa Clara on the road. SCU will OUT of my projected field. SDSU moves in. Gonzaga stays on the 3/4 line.

Sunday’s Slate:

Utah @ Cincinnati | Noon, ESPN

If you want to pretend Cincinnati could have a theoretical shot if they win out, they have to start by winning today.

Indiana @ Illinois | 1:00, CBS

Game of the day! Indiana is playing extremely well right now, but Illinois is extremely talented. The Illini are favored by 11.5 and is currently a 2 seed. Indiana is a 9.

Denver @ Omaha | 1:00, CBSSN

Both teams are 6-6 on the year I the Summit. Omaha comes in favored by 2.5.

South Florida @ FAU | 2:00, ESPN2

USF continues to be the leader of the American at this time. This is a tough matchup, however, as FAU is solid, especially at home.

Fairfield @ Saint Peters | 2:00, ESPN+

This MAAC battle sees the Peacocks coming in at 11-4 and right at the top of the conference! They’re favored by 3.5 here.

Merrimack @ Quinnipiac | 2:00, ESPN+

This is a huge game in the MAAC. If Merrimack wins, they will grow their lead even further. Quinn comes in favored by 1.5 today.

Oakland @ Robert Morris | 2:00, ESPN+

This is the Horizon League game of the day! RMU is fighting for a top 5 seed and a home court advantage in the HL tournament. Oakland is looking to stay up there with Wright State. RMU is favored by 1.5.

IU Indy @ Purdue Fort Wayne | 2:00, ESPN+

PFW is favored by 7.5 hat home in what promises to be a high scoring affair. However, IU Indy’s pressure can be tough the first time a team sees it, and this is the first matchup between the two this year. Huge game for PFW in the race for HL home court!

Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy | 1:00, ESPN+

Right now, Detroit is tied for a top 5 seed in the Horizon. However, they have a tough slate to close the year. They come into this one as 2.5 point home underdogs.

Siena @ Marist | 2:00, ESPN+

Marist is favored by 2.5. The winner likely gains at least .5 games on the MAAC lead. This should be low scoring and hard fought.

Green Bay @ Milwaukee | 3:00, ESPN+

This is the final Horizon matchup of the day! Green Bay is currently comfortably above the cut-line for teams in the battle for home court, solidly in 3rd right now. A loss here, however, and that changes.

Davidson @ Dayton | 4:00, ESPN2

No tournament implications, just 2 6-5 A-10 teams battling in what will be a fun one!

Belmont @ Murray State | 6:00, ESPN2

This is one of the better matchups of the entire weekend! Murray is favored by 1.5 currently, but this will be a really interesting matchup. If Belmont wins, they’re getting close to locking down the MVC regular season.

Seton Hall @ Butler | 6:00, FS1

Must-win for Seton Hall here! The Pirates are currently fighting along the bubble and are in my next 4 out. However, there were a ton of bubble results. on Saturday and the bubble is opening up for the Pirates.

📅 Full updated bracket drops Monday morning.
Bookmark this page for the latest NCAA Tournament projections.


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