By Michael Gross

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 Vandy, Florida, Arkansas 

“Near Lock”

Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky

“Good Shape”

Auburn, Missouri 

“Bubble” 

Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas

“Fringe Bubble”

LSU

         Arkansas and Florida have joined Vanderbilt as locks from the SEC. Arkansas picked up solid NonCon wins over Louisville and TTU. During SEC play they added wins over wins over Vandy and Tennessee to their resume. They are also 6-6 in Q1 games with 0 losses outside of Q1. Florida didn’t do much in NonCon as their best win was against Miami. They’ve made up for it by beating Vandy, Georgia and Texas A&M on the road while beating Alabama and Tennessee at home. Florida will get an opportunity to repeat as NCAA Champions.

“Near Lock”

         Not much drama here. Bama, Tennessee and Kentucky are all 1 win away from sealing a bid. They all have enough quality wins and a strong enough SOS to get in with 18 wins.

“Good Shape”

         Where things do start to get interesting is when you get to Auburn and Missouri as these 2 teams seem to be trending in opposite directions.

          Auburn has lost 3 in a row and now has accumulated 10 losses. Now they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the Country, but it’s still a lot of losses. Now if they can go to Arkansas and beat the Razorbacks on the road then I have little concern about them making it. If they don’t it will put pressure on them to defeat Miss St. in Stillwater. If they lose both games they’ll be 14-12. Strong SOS or not 14-12 is a “Bubble” team.

           Missouri has won 3 in a row including a road game at Texas A&M. They now have 3 really solid wins. The win over Florida looks better and better every time Florida takes the floor. The road win over Kentucky is also aging nicely. Next up they host Texas and Vandy. If the win either game they’ll be in an even stronger position to make the NCAA Tournament. If they win both; they’ll move up to “Near Lock”.

“Bubble”

         Welcome back to the “bubble” Texas A&M. After doing very little in NonCon the Aggies started off SEC play 7-1 and seemed almost assured of a bid. Since then A&M has lost 3 in a row. Now we are reminded that their best NonCon win was against Florida St. The road wins over Auburn, Georgia and Texas are nice, but they aren’t that great. Texas A&M is still on the high end of the “bubble”. However, if they don’t beat Vandy on Saturday; they better beat Ole Miss at home on Wednesday. If they win both games then I think it’s highly unlikely they miss the NCAA Tournament.

         Georgia got hammered at home by Florida in their last outing. Outside of beating Arkansas and Auburn at home, the Bulldogs haven’t done much. Next up they play OU and Kentucky on the road. If they don’t split these games; things get very murky at that point.

         Here come the Longhorns again! After falling to 11-9 they’ve won 3 in a row. They are in the middle of a stretch of games they really need to go 5-0 in. So far so good. If they can beat Missouri and LSU in their next 2 games; I think they only have to win 2 of their last 5 games to get in. If they split they’ll have to win 3 of the 5 to get in.

“Fringe Bubble”

         I really don’t think LSU has much of a chance. If they don’t beat either Texas or Tennessee on the road; they are done. If they win 1 they’ll stay on the page. The only thing that would get them moving in the right direction is winning both games.