Green Bay Phoenix (12-12, 7-6) @ Northern Kentucky Norse (14-10, 6-7)

📍 Venue: Truist Arena, Highland Heights, KY 

🕖 Tip-off: 7:00 PM ET

 📺 Watch: ESPN+ 

📊 Odds: NKU -7.5 | O/U: 151.5

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The Stakes: Battle for Horizon league 4th Place

If you like high-stakes mid-major basketball, get your eyes on Highland Heights tonight. This is the most important game of the night in the Horizon League.

Both teams are stumbling into this matchup, desperate to stop the bleeding. NKU has lost four straight games, a brutal skid that has dropped them to 6th in the conference standings.  Green Bay, meanwhile, has dropped two in a row and still clings to the 4th spot.

The math is simple: If NKU wins, they drag themselves back into a strong spot for a top-4 seed. A Norse loss means that they fall 2 games behind the Phoenix, and would likely fall to 7th or 8th in the league, meaning they’d be staring a first round Horizon League tournament matchup in the face.

A Green Bay win would clearly separate the second tier of Purdue Fort Wayne and Green Bay, with Detroit Mercy, NKU, RMU, Cleveland State and Milwaukee being the third grouping of teams. Youngstown State and IU Indy would make up the 4th and final tier.

Simply put, this is a monumental matchup for the Norse.

The Matchup: Fire vs. Firepower

These two met back on Jan. 11 in Green Bay, where the Phoenix edged out the Norse in a nail-biter, 80-78. Tonight, NKU looks for revenge on their home floor.

• The Norse Offense: NKU’s offense is electric, averaging a league-leading 83.5 PPG. They play fast, they shoot a ton of threes (9.2 makes per game), and they rely on turning opponents over (forcing 14.5 turnovers per game) to ignite their transition attack.
• The Phoenix Defense: Green Bay plays a more methodical brand of ball. They allow 76.0 PPG but are generally disciplined, fouling considerably less than the Norse. However, they struggled to contain NKU’s guards in the first meeting. Donovan Oday put up 31 to lead all scorers.

Key Stat: In their last meeting, Green Bay shot a blistering 56% from the field. NKU’s defense (allowing 76.8 PPG) has been their Achilles’ heel during this losing streak. If the Norse want to snap the skid, they don’t need to score more—they need to get stops.

What Green Bay Does Well:

Overall, offense is a strength (125th nationally).

They are 57th in the country in effective FG% (54.7%). They shoot 36.2% from 3 (61st nationally), and 55% from 2 (73rd nationally). When they get to the free throw line, they make 75% from their attempts (75th).

On defense, they don’t do much well, however, they do keep teams off the offensive glass, allowing just 29.4% of opponents missed shots to result in an offensive rebound (119th nationally).

The Phoenix are 30th nationally in getting to the free throw line, practically living there and keeping themselves in games by drawing fouls. NKU has to do well at keeping them off the FT line.

What Green Bay Doesn’t Do Well:

Overall, defense is an extreme liability, and the reason Green Bay isn’t higher in the Horizon League. They are 335th in defensive efficiency per kenpom.com.

They allow an effective FG% of 56%, they do not turn teams over at all (354th in the nation at forcing turnovers), and they have a tendency to foul teams.

The Phoenix surrender a 37% mark from 3 point range, and a 56% mark from 2 point range. Both rank > 310 nationally.

Three Keys to an NKU Win

Fouls. The equation for the Norse lately has been frustratingly simple: too many fouls lead to too many free points for the opposition. NKU has struggled with defensive discipline during this skid, but they actually handled this well in the first meeting with Green Bay. In that game, the Norse committed only 17 fouls (leading to 15 Phoenix free throws) while forcing their way to the line 20 times. To snap the streak, NKU must duplicate that discipline against an aggressive Green Bay squad that lives for the whistle.

Three Point Shooting: The Norse have been a “hot and cold” team from deep during this losing streak, coming off a particularly rough shooting night against Oakland on Sunday. However, this key is a two-way street. In the first matchup, NKU allowed the Phoenix to light them up from beyond the arc. Wednesday night requires a balanced effort: the Norse need to hunt high-quality, rhythm looks on offense while ensuring their defensive rotations are fast enough to prevent another Green Bay barrage.

Rebounding: On paper, the Norse have the size and athleticism to win the rebounding battle, but the first meeting told a different story. NKU surrendered a 34-25 advantage on the glass to Green Bay a discrepancy that, when paired with the Phoenix’s hot shooting, proved to be the difference in the game. Reclaiming the paint and limiting second-chance opportunities is non-negotiable. If the Norse don’t control the boards, they won’t control the outcome.

Health Concerns:

The Norse come into this one banged up. I have been able to confirm that both LJ Wells (missed the last game) and Ethan Elliott (missed the last 2 games), are listed as questionable and their injuries are not feared to be long-term. We will have to wait until closer to game time to know their actual status.

Projected Green Bay Rotation:

Last time out, Green Bay saw 9 guys get 5 or more minutes in their loss to Wright State.

Starters:

Caden Wilkins: 21 minutes per game, 7 points/3 rebounds/1 assist, 1 block and 1 turnover. He shoots 39% from deep on 94 attempts this year.

Marcus Hall: 34mpg, 14/5/3, 2 turnovers per game. He is shooting 39% from deep.

Justin Allen: 24.3mpg, 13/3/1, 1 steal and 1 turnover per game. He is 34% from deep, and shoots 83% from the FT line.

C.J. O’Hara: 31mpg, 14/5/1, 1 steal and 1 turnover per game. He shoots just 22% from deep, however, he is 57% from the field on the year.

Preston Ruedinger: 35mpg, 12/4/6, 1 steal, 2 turnovers per game. 45% from deep, 88% from the FT line. He has taken 119 3’s this year.

Rotation

Maruan Cicic: 13mpg, 3/2/0, 1 turnover per game. Shooting 58% from the field on the year

LeBron Thomas: 13mpg, 4/2/1, 1 turnover per game. Just 11% from deep on the year, 44% from the field and 68% from the FT line. He isn’t a high volume shooter, but he does get to the FT line a couple times per game.

Mac Wrecke: 12mpg, 3/2/0, 38% from 3, 48% from the field.

Keegan Van Kauwenberg: played in just 13 games this year. 11mpg, 3/1/1, 1 turnover and 39% from deep. He has not taken a FT this year.

The Verdict

The 7.5-point spread feels high given NKU’s recent form, but the metrics still love the Norse at home. Truist Arena is a tough place to play, and desperate teams are dangerous teams.

Expect a high-scoring affair. NKU will try to turn this into a track meet, while Green Bay will try to execute in the half-court. Ultimately, the Norse’s desperation at home should be the difference maker. They simply cannot afford to fall to 6-8 in the league.

Prediction: NKU snaps the streak in a shootout.