By Michael Gross

🔐 none

“Near Lock”

Gonzaga

“Good Shape”

St. Louis 

“Bubble”

VCU, GMU, Tulsa, Miami-OH, SDSU, Utah St., New Mexico, St. Mary’s, Santa Clara

“Fringe Bubble”

South Florida, Liberty, Yale, Akron, Belmont, Murray St., Boise St., Nevada, Grand Canyon, McNeese

“Near Lock”

          The Zags have all but sealed yet another bid to the NCAA Tournament. They picked up solid NonCon wins over Alabama, Kentucky and UCLA. Their lone loss is to Michigan around Thanksgiving. They don’t have to do much more to clinch their bid. If they beat St. Mary’s this weekend and win one more game that’ll do it!

“Good Shape”

           It’s tough to figure out what to do with St. Louis. On the one hand, this is a 1 loss team with all of their metrics in the top 30. On the other hand, their best wins are over who? Santa Clara and VCU? The metrics are good enough to have them in “good shape”, but they can’t afford to take bad losses. If they can beat Davidson and La Salle in their next two games, I’ll probably move them up to “Near Lock”.

“Bubble”

           George Mason is in an interesting spot. The predictive metrics absolutely say this is not an NCAA Tournament team. However, the resume metrics and the sheer fact they only have 2 losses are keeping them very much in the mix. They need to beat the Bonnies and Duquesne to stay in the picture. 

            VCU has won 5 in a row to get themselves back in the conversation. The metrics aren’t great, but the wins over Virginia Tech and South Florida as well as only one loss outside of Q1 does give them a real chance. They’ll need to beat Fordham and Dayton to keep their chances real.

            St. Mary’s is another team that is tough to figure out what to do with. The metrics are just okay, but at times this looks like a top 25 team. However, their best win is Virginia Tech and they’ve lost to Boise St. and Santa Clara. A win over Gonzaga would really enhance their profile.

           Here comes Santa Clara. They’ve won 5 in a row which includes a win over St. Mary’s. The wins over McNeese, Nevada and Xavier are solid also. The big issue is the Q4 loss to Loyola Chicago. The best thing they can do is keep winning. They’ve got 3 consecutive road games starting with LMU this weekend.

           Tulsa’s profile barely has them in the “Bubble” section. It’s much closer to “Fringe”. Their game coming up against South Florida will give them the opportunity to get a Q1 win. First they have to beat Wichita St. this weekend. 

            What to do with an undefeated Miami-OH team? How can an undefeated team not be in better shape for a bid? Well this issue is they’ve played the 349th ranked SOS out of 365 DI schools. Going undefeated should count for something. I believe if they go the rest of the way and only lose 1 regular season game and lose in the MAC Tournament, they should get in. I’m not sure though.

           New Mexico is building up a decent profile with their metrics mostly around 40. Gotta take of business against SJSU this weekend. Big game coming up against Utah St.

           How these games go between Utah St. vs New Mexico as well as Utah St. vs SDSU will go along way to deciding these 3 teams NCAA Tournament chances. 

“Fringe Bubble”

            I know Boise St. has played a tough schedule and has a couple of decent wins. However, I don’t believe they’re going to do enough to make up for the loss to DII Hawaii-Pacific.

           Nevada is getting closer, but they aren’t quite good enough to get to the “Bubble” section yet. I will say that 10-0 Q3 record does help as it makes them 13-5 in Q1-3 games. However, they have 0 Q1 wins. They can change that if they can win at Boise St. on Tuesday.

           Grand Canyon is also moving toward the “Bubble” section. They have 2 Q1 wins which have come against Utah St. and Boise St. Problem is they have 2 Q3/4 losses. They must beat Air Force to stay alive and they really need to win at UNLV too.

           By all predictive metrics Akron on paper is a better team than Miami-OH. They’ve played a tougher schedule than the Red Hawks, but only have a win at Bowling Green to show for it. They also likely need to win out until the MAC Tournament to have any chance.

            South Florida is in the conversation because they have 2 Q1 wins which came against Utah St. and Tulsa. The problem is those plus the home win over FAU are their only wins over top 100 NET teams. They also have 2 Q3 losses and 7 total losses. They need to beat Temple and UTSA in their next two games to continue to have a chance.

          I don’t think McNeese has much of a chance of an at large bid, but the metrics are good enough to keep them on the page. I do think McNeese has to win out and only lose to SFA in the Southland Conference Tournament to have any chance.

           Looking at the Belmont and Murray St. which are the MVC teams that still have a slight chance; I think both team’s chances are slim. Murray St. has lost 4 straight games and Belmont hasn’t played a Q1 game. Both probably have to win out and then lose to the other in the MVC Championship Game.

          Yale and Liberty much like McNeese and the MVC teams I just mentioned have outside chances, but probably have to win out until their Conference Tournament to have any chance.