We’re just over halfway through the conference slate for NKU, and I thought it was an optimal time to update everyone in where things stand if the season were ending today, as well as look ahead to how the Norse can secure that coveted home game in the first round of the Horizon League tournament!

Reminder, the tournament changed the formatting a bit this year:

• 1st through 5th will host a first round game
• 6th through 9th will be on the road
• 10/11 have a play-in game @ #10’s home court for the privilege of playing #1.
• There will also be a matchup in Indy on Sunday featuring the two lowest seeded winners of the 5 first round matchups!

Current Bracket:

The template came from horizonleague.org!

Right now, the conference is broken into 3 tiers:

Title Race: Wright State/Oakland

• Yes, I said title race. Right now it’s those two vs. the field and they’re pulling away. Both teams look dominant and are clear favorites to win the league.

Middle (Fighting for home court in round 1): PFW, Green Bay, NKU, Robert Morris, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

• This is what makes the Horizon one of, if not the best low-major conference in the country. All of these team have legit claims for 3rd place in the conference and are all within a game or two of each other. This conference is amazing!

Bottom: Cleveland State, Youngstown State, IU Indy

• Better luck next year.

Breaking down the standings:

Of note, all projections are from kenpom.com, the leading analytical site in college basketball.

Wright State

The Raiders, outside of the random upset loss to Cleveland State last week, have been elite in conference play, losing just 1x since December. WSU has 2 games vs. the bottom of the conference left, and they hold the tiebreaker over Oakland as they beat them 2x. They project to end 15-5 on the year.

Oakland

The battle tested Grizzlies are showing just how beneficial a tough non-conference schedule can be for teams. They are 8-3 on the year and are rocking. They have already played Wright State 2x and still have 3 games vs. the bottom of the conference remaining. They project at 15-5 on the year.

Purdue Fort Wayne

The Mastodons are currently 7-3 in Horizon lay, however, they still have 3 games vs. the title contenders and 3 against the bottom. They project right now at 11-8 in conference play.

Green Bay

The Phoenix are currently 7-4 and off to a great start in Doug’s second year. They get just 2 games vs. the bottom tier of the conference the rest of the year, and have 2 more vs. the title contenders. They project at 12-8 in conference play this year.

Northern Kentucky

The Norse are 6-5 after several disappointing results. They get both Oakland and Green Bay once more, and they have 3 games left vs. the bottom tier. Their schedule is relatively easy compared to other teams on the list, and the Norse project at 12-8 in conference this year.

Robert Morris

The Colonials are sitting at 5-6 in conference play, starting a group of 3 at 5-6 right now. However, they have 3 games vs. the top of the conference (Wright State x2, Oakland), and only get 2 more games with the bottom tier. They do project to finish 10-10 currently.

Milwaukee

The panthers are currently 5-6 in conference play and get to host Wright State this week. Down the stretch, they have a very easy schedule, getting 3 games vs. the bottom tier. They currently project at 10-10 in conference play.

Detroit Mercy

Currently, the Titans are 5-6 in conference and a bit difficult to place overall. They have just 1 game left vs. the bottom of the conference, and have to play both Oakland and Wright State again. Their schedule is difficult and they project to be 8-12 in conference play.

Cleveland State

The 3-7 start in conference lay is less than ideal. They get both Oakland and Wright State again, both at home. However, they have just 2 games vs. the bottom teams left this year. Expect them to be fighting to stay out of the play-in game. They project to be 6-14 in conference play.

Youngstown State

3-8 in conference play, and the disappointing year appears to be continuing. They already have the victory over IU Indy which will help keep them off the very bottom. They just have 2 games vs. the bottom of the conference remaining, and they only have 1 game vs. the title contenders left. They currently project at 8-12 in conference play. Their schedule lightens up a bit compared to others.

IU Indy

2-9 in conference play and it appears they’ll stay towards the bottom of the conference the remainder of the year. They just have 2 games remaining against the bottom tier of the conference. They do have 2 games vs. the title contenders remaining. Expect them to be in the play-in game in the tournament. Currently, they project at 4-15 in conference play.

Why does it matter?

I wanted to hop on here to give the Valhalla Voice readers something to digest as we have a longer break between Norse action!

When I review the schedule for the rest of the year, there’s one game that stands out as a game I don’t see NKU winning: this Sunday’s matchup against Oakland. While it’s certainly possible for NKU to pull off an upset, it’s important to acknowledge that Oakland is performing exceptionally well and presents a formidable obstacle to overcome.

The remainder of the games are toss-ups (@ Youngstown State, vs. Wright State) or games NKU should win. However, the Norse have to find consistency to be able to win like they’re capable of.

Realistically, the ceiling for the Norse is the #3 seed. Barring absolute chaos at the top, Wright State and Oakland have separated themselves from the pack. However, NKU still controls its own destiny. If the Norse protect Truist Arena and run the table at home—even with a projected stumble at Oakland this Sunday—the February 28th season finale against Wright State won’t just be a rivalry game; it’ll likely be the battle to secure 3rd place and lock in prime tournament positioning.

As a fan, you need to be at Truist Arena and you need to be loud. This Norse squad is one of the most electric units we’ve seen in years. Between the 30-point scoring outbursts from Dan Gherezgher and the SportsCenter-worthy slams from the ‘Donovan Duo’ (Oday and Rakotonanahary), there is a highlight-reel moment waiting to happen every single night. Don’t just check the box score the next morning—be there when the action happens!