By Michael Gross

🔐 

Duke

“Near Lock”

 UVA, UNC

“Good Shape”

Clemson, Louisville, SMU

“Bubble”

NCST, Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Miami

“Fringe Bubble”

Notre Dame, Syracuse, Wake

         Duke is officially a 🔐! Thanks to a strong SOS a ton of quality wins which includes 4 Q1A wins and fewer landmines in the ACC this year I am more than comfortable locking them in.

         Virginia’s home loss to UNC slowed their progress to sealing a bid. However, they are still well on track to secure that bid by early February. It was a much bigger win for UNC than it was a loss for UVA. UNC moves back up to “Near Lock” collecting their 3rd Q1A win of the season. Question now is can the be consistent!

        Louisville picked up a solid win knocking off Virginia Tech at home. They get a shot at Duke at Cameron Indoor! Pull off the upset and they move to “Near Lock”. SMU got the job done against Wake Forest and FSU. If they can pull off an upset on the road against Louisville this weekend, I think they’ll move up to “Near Lock”. Clemson did a nice job of recovering from their disappointing home loss to NCST by beating GT on the road. As long as they don’t fall at home to Pitt they should also move up!

          NCST followed up their win at Clemson by rallying late to beat Pitt. This week they got Syracuse and Wake. They’ll need to win both games to move up. Split and they stay where they are. Should they lose both however, they’re in trouble. Cal picked up a big road win at fellow bubbler Stanford. Next they got FSU and Miami on the road. If they win 1 it keeps them very much in play for a bid. Win both and I like their chances moving forward to get a bid. Lose both and it’s hard to see.

For Stanford, it’s just hard to see it. On the one hand they have some nice wins. On the other hand, they have some questionable/bad losses. Also, they just have some awful offensive performances such as only scoring 40 points in a 47-40 loss to ND and losing 80-50 at home against Duke. They have FSU and Miami on the road this week. They’ll have to win at least one of them to stay alive. 

For Miami, they continue to have a great record, but little substance to it. The best thing you could say about their profile was no bad losses. That all changed when they fell at home to Florida St. this past Tuesday. They cannot afford to lose at home to Cal or Stanford this week. This past week Virginia Tech won at Syracuse before falling to Louisville. That’s not a bad result at all! This week they get GT and Duke at home. They gotta beat GT and then take their shot against Duke.

         I see very little chance for ND, Syracuse or Wake Forest. They simply are not winning enough games!