By Michael Gross

🔐 none

“Near Lock”

Alabama, Vandy, Florida, Arkansas 

“Good Shape”

Tennessee, Georgia 

“Bubble” 

Auburn, Missouri, Kentucky, Texas A&M, LSU

“Fringe Bubble”

Texas, Ole Miss, Miss St., Oklahoma 

           Vanderbilt looked poised to be a 🔐 by now, but 3 straight losses have halted things just a bit. If they can get back on track by winning 2 out of their next 3 games over the next 8 days, that’ll be good enough. Alabama and Arkansas continue to be on the right track to make the NCAA Tournament. Florida, which has moved up to “Near Lock” recently is also trending towards 🔐 status.

          Tennessee, on the other hand, has trended down recently as they fall to “Good Shape”. They’ve lost 3 of 5 and 1 of the 2 wins needed extra time to beat Texas A&M at home. What is keeping them in “Good Shape” is the wins over Houston and Louisville. However, if they lose on the road to Alabama and Georgia this week, that’ll be an issue. It would drop them to 0-5 in road games and likely drop their resume metrics into the 40s. That would not be the profile of a team in “Good Shape”.

Georgia has a gaudy record, but not much behind it. However, the wins over Auburn and Missouri recently were very important. If they can follow that up with wins over Texas and Tennessee, they might get promoted to “Near Lock”.

          Kentucky has won 4 straight games to go from right around the cut line to the doorstep of “Good Shape”. If they can beat Ole Miss at home and split the road games against Vandy and Arkansas over the next week, that’ll move them up. Win all 3 and they move all the way up to “Near Lock”. Missouri lost a couple of tough games recently. They only have 4 total wins that aren’t Q4. They’ll need to go at least 2-1 over the next 8 days to stay in the “Bubble” section. LSU is also trending in the wrong direction with only 5 wins that aren’t Q4. Same story as Missouri over the next 8 days. 

Texas A&M is trending in the right direction as they are unbeaten in regulation since mid-November. If they beat South Carolina at home this weekend, they’ll be in position to move up if they can split their road games against Georgia and Alabama. Auburn won a very important game on the road in Oxford. If they can beat Florida or Texas coming up, they’ll remain on track to make the NCAA Tournament.

           Ole Miss and Miss St. are running out of chances and have accumulated too many losses. Both will need a very strong finish to make it. It’s getting late kind of early for OU and Texas. Let’s see if they either can begin a surge towards the field this week.