We have officially arrived.

From the long nights tracking the transfer portal, to spring games and roster turnover… fast-forward through Dublin and a full regular season, and we’ve finally made it to the official unveiling of the CFP bracket.

Without further ado — here’s my College Football Playoff Top 12.
And to be clear: this is exactly what I would do if I were sitting in the committee room. 

Indiana

Georgia

Ohio State

Texas Tech

Oregon

Ole Miss

Texas A&M

Oklahoma

Miami (FL)

Notre Dame

Tulane

James Madison

I’ve been very consistent on my socials about this: I don’t know (nor does anyone know) — and frankly don’t trust — what the committee is going to do.

Additionally: If this is what happens, there is a decent chance teams start opting out of conference championship games.

For me, the right thing to do is to punish a team for losing by multiple touchdowns, especially when it happens against a playoff-caliber opponent. With that in mind, 3 loss Alabama is out of my field.

That move creates a ripple effect. BYU also slides with their loss to Texas Tech today, which opens the door for Miami (FL) to move up two spots. And because they climbed side-by-side with Notre Dame, I defaulted to head-to-head — placing the Hurricanes above the Irish in my rankings.

This isn’t about brands or perceptions. It’s about results, and consistently evaluating teams using every game. If Alabama doesn’t lose to Florida State early in the season, we’re probably not even having this conversation. And if Notre Dame had beaten Miami or Texas A&M early on, the debate looks very different on their end as well. The same applies to Miami; beat either SMU or Louisville and you’re not sitting on the bubble right now.

Every result has to matter. That’s the foundation of college football.

For that reason, the team with the worst loss, and the only team in this group with three losses is out of my field.

3 Teams, 2 Spots

Why each team should (or shouldn’t) be in

Alabama
Alabama owns the second-best win in the country with their victory at Georgia and has beaten multiple teams currently ranked in the CFP Top 25. From a résumé perspective, that matters — a lot.

However, the Tide now have two losses by double digits, and the Florida State loss continues to loom large. That combination is difficult to overlook when comparing teams side-by-side. If the committee ultimately places Alabama in the field, I wouldn’t be surprised at all — the résumé wins are real — but the low points of their season are equally hard to ignore.

Miami (FL)
Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head to open the season and also owns a road win over Florida State in Tallahassee, a common opponent with Alabama. That gives the Hurricanes a strong comparative case.

The issue is consistency. Miami lost at home to Louisville and on the road to SMU, both games they realistically needed. ACC tiebreakers kept them out of the conference title game, but make no mistake — this is still the best team in a weak ACC, and their ceiling is good enough to belong in the discussion.

Notre Dame
Notre Dame hasn’t lost since September 13th, when they fell at home to Texas A&M. They have just two losses, both to ranked teams, by a combined four points. On paper, that profile looks very strong.

The concern is what’s happened since. Their toughest opponent after those early losses was USC, and that game came at home. Notre Dame has absolutely passed the eye test, but it’s been against extremely weak competition down the stretch. Because of that, I think Notre Dame is most likely in — but the final spot truly comes down to Alabama vs Miami.

What to do with the Top 4

All four top-four teams played on Championship Saturday. Only Ohio State lost, and while Notre Dame is clearly one of the best teams in the country, they won’t be punished heavily.

I dropped Notre Dame to No. 3 because the SEC Champion (Georgia) deserves to move up a spot after winning the conference title.

I do not believe Texas Tech will jump Ohio State — but it’s absolutely within the realm of possibility. Indiana is locked into the No. 1 overall seed at 13-0, and there are no realistic contenders to break into the top four beyond these teams.

The rest of the bracket

The middle of the bracket is relatively stable. Most of those teams were idle this weekend, and I wouldn’t expect much movement. The committee’s focus is going to be squarely on selecting the final at-large team, because that decision has the largest ripple effect.

Final thoughts

This year’s CFP bracket is a mess, and it perfectly illustrates how difficult it is to seed teams when you’re only working with 12 or 13 data points.

Expansion to 16 teams feels inevitable — and soon. These debates aren’t going away, but with more access points (and likely automatic qualifiers for all four Power-4 conferences), the margin for outrage will probably shrink.

Every result has to matter. That’s the foundation of college football.

What are your thoughts?